Here is another famous AGI prediction & in fairness, Minksy's denial. But
either way, it's an awful warning about such predictions, which incorrigible
AGI-ers seem incapable of realising, are almost guaranteed to be wrong :
in three to eight years we will have a machine with the general
> intelligence of an average human being ... The machine will begin
> to educate itself with fantastic speed. In a few months it will be
> at genius level and a few months after that its powers will be
> incalculable ...
> -- MarvinMinsky, LIFE Magazine, November 20, 1970
MM:I was angry when that article came out, because it was filled with
misquotations from an interview. I'm not sure where the interviewer
got this "quote"; perhaps I said '3 to 8 decades' or I was making a
joke, or I was describing the scenario from D.F.Jones's SF novel
entitled "Colossus." (It became the movie, The Forbin Project.)
Anyway, I sent an angry rebuttal to Life Magazine, but they declined
to publish it.
However, it does seem likely that a modern computer could develoe very
rapidly--once it has learns the right kinds of things to learn.
(That's the problem we call "credit assignment.") However, the
earlier versions will all have serious bugs, so we'll surely need to
reprogram them many times before they will work well on their own.
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