On Apr 6, 2008, at 8:55 AM, Richard Loosemore wrote:
What could be "compelling" about a project? (Novamente or any
other). Artificial Intelligence is not a field that rests on a firm
theoretical basis, because there is no science that says "this
design should produce an intelligent machine because intelligence is
KNOWN to be x and y and z, and this design unambiguously will
produce something that satisfies x and y and z".
Every single AGI design in existence is a Suck It And See design.
We will know if the design is correct if it is built and it works.
Before that, the best that any outside investor can do is use their
gut instinct to decide whether they think that it will work.
Even if every single AGI design in existence is fundamentally broken
(and I would argue that a fair amount of AGI design is theoretically
correct and merely unavoidably intractable), this is a false
characterization. And at a minimum, it should be "no mathematics"
rather than "no science".
Mathematical proof of validity of a new technology is largely
superfluous with respect to whether or not a venture gets funded.
Investors are not mathematicians, at least not in the sense that
mathematical certainty of the correctness of the model would be
compelling. If they trust the person enough to invest in them, they
will generally trust that the esoteric mathematics behind the venture
are correct as well. No one tries to actually understand the
mathematics even if though they will give them a cursory glance --
that is your job.
Having had to sell breakthroughs in theoretical computer science
before (unrelated to AGI), I would make the observation that investors
in speculative technology do not really put much weight on what you
"know" about the technology. After all, who are they going to ask if
you are the presumptive leading authority in that field? They will
verify that the current limitations you claim to be addressing exist
and will want concise qualitative answers as to how these are being
addressed that comport with their model of reality, but no one is
going to dig through the mathematics and derive the result for
themselves. Or at least, I am not familiar with cases that worked
differently than this. The real problem is that most AGI designers
cannot answer these basic questions in a satisfactory manner, which
may or may not reflect what they "know".
J. Andrew Rogers
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singularity
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