Ben Goertzel wrote:
Hi,
Just my personal opinion...but it appears that the "exponential technology
growth chart", which is used in many of the briefings, does not include
AI/AGI. It is processing centric. When you include AI/AGI the "exponential
technology curve" flattens out in the coming years (5-7) and becomes part of
a normal S curve of development. While computer power and processing will
increase exponentially (as nanotechnology grows) the area of AI will need
more time to develop.
I would be interested in your thoughts.
I think this is because progress toward general AI has been difficult
to quantify
in the past, and looks to remain difficult to quantify into the future...
I am uncertain as to the extent to which this problem can be worked around,
though.
Let me introduce an analogy problem
"Understanding the operation of the brain better and better" is to
"scanning the brain with higher and higher spatiotemporal accuracy",
as "Creating more and more powerful AGI" is to what?
;-)
The point is that understanding the brain is also a nebulous and
hard-to-quantify goal, but we make charts for it by treating "brain
scan accuracy" as a more easily quantifiable proxy variable. What's a
comparable proxy variable for AGI?
Suggestions welcome!
Sadly, the analogy is a wee bit broken.
Brain scan accuracy as a measure of progress in understanding the
operation of the brain is a measure that some cognitive neuroscientists
may subscribe to, but the majority of cognitive scientists outside of
that area consider this to be a completely spurious idea.
Doug Hofstadter said this eloquently in "I Am A Strange Loop": getting
a complete atom-scan in the vicinity of a windmill doesn't mean that you
are making progress toward understanding why the windmill goes around.
It just gives you a data analysis problem that will keep you busy until
everyone in the Hot Place is eating ice cream.
Richard Loosemore
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singularity
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