Brain-scan accuracy is a very crude proxy for understanding of brain function; yet a much better proxy than anything existing for the case of AGI...
On Sun, Apr 13, 2008 at 11:37 PM, Richard Loosemore <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Ben Goertzel wrote: > > > Hi, > > > > > > > Just my personal opinion...but it appears that the "exponential > technology > > > growth chart", which is used in many of the briefings, does not include > > > AI/AGI. It is processing centric. When you include AI/AGI the > "exponential > > > technology curve" flattens out in the coming years (5-7) and becomes > part of > > > a normal S curve of development. While computer power and processing > will > > > increase exponentially (as nanotechnology grows) the area of AI will > need > > > more time to develop. > > > > > > I would be interested in your thoughts. > > > > > > > I think this is because progress toward general AI has been difficult > > to quantify > > in the past, and looks to remain difficult to quantify into the future... > > > > I am uncertain as to the extent to which this problem can be worked > around, > > though. > > > > Let me introduce an analogy problem > > > > "Understanding the operation of the brain better and better" is to > > "scanning the brain with higher and higher spatiotemporal accuracy", > > as "Creating more and more powerful AGI" is to what? > > > > ;-) > > > > The point is that understanding the brain is also a nebulous and > > hard-to-quantify goal, but we make charts for it by treating "brain > > scan accuracy" as a more easily quantifiable proxy variable. What's a > > comparable proxy variable for AGI? > > > > Suggestions welcome! > > > > Sadly, the analogy is a wee bit broken. > > Brain scan accuracy as a measure of progress in understanding the operation > of the brain is a measure that some cognitive neuroscientists may subscribe > to, but the majority of cognitive scientists outside of that area consider > this to be a completely spurious idea. > > Doug Hofstadter said this eloquently in "I Am A Strange Loop": getting a > complete atom-scan in the vicinity of a windmill doesn't mean that you are > making progress toward understanding why the windmill goes around. It just > gives you a data analysis problem that will keep you busy until everyone in > the Hot Place is eating ice cream. > > > > > Richard Loosemore > > > > ------------------------------------------- > singularity > Archives: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/11983/=now > RSS Feed: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/11983/ > Modify Your Subscription: > http://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > -- Ben Goertzel, PhD CEO, Novamente LLC and Biomind LLC Director of Research, SIAI [EMAIL PROTECTED] "If men cease to believe that they will one day become gods then they will surely become worms." -- Henry Miller ------------------------------------------- singularity Archives: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/11983/=now RSS Feed: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/11983/ Modify Your Subscription: http://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=4007604&id_secret=98631122-712fa4 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
