Hi Chip >Keith Addison wrote: >> http://www.grain.org/seedling/?id=552 >> >> Seedling > July 2008 >> >> The food emergency and food myths >> >> Why Bush is wrong to blame Indians for the rise in food prices >> >> Vandana Shiva * > >I really enjoy Vandana Shiva's input. It's clueful and very well >thought out.
Yes, isn't it. She's good value, always worth the read. >That said; > > >SNIP >> agribusiness in the current food crisis, both through speculation and > > through the hijacking of food into biofuels, > >I keep hearing about this 'hijacking of food into biofuels' argument. > >Anyone have the numbers to back this up? Some. At the UN food summit in Rome last month: Ed Schafer, the US agriculture secretary, said the production of biofuels contributed less than 3% to the recent rapid rises in food prices but that assertion clashed with estimates by the International Monetary Fund, that they are responsible for 20-30% of the price rises. A FAO document distributed yesterday said: "Biofuels accounted for 59% of the increase in global use of coarse grains and wheat between 2005-2007, and 56% of the increase in vegetable oils." -- "US attacked at food summit over biofuels - Corn ethanol production blamed for price rises - American delegation rejects link by UN official," The Guardian, Rome, June 4, 2008 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/04/biofuels.food The American agriculture secretary, Ed Schafer, has told American reporters that increasing the production of corn ethanol is "the right policy direction". Corn prices rose on the world markets throughout the last hours of the summit. -- "Food summit fails to agree on biofuels," The Guardian, Rome, June 6, 2008 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/06/food.biofuels Biofuels are responsible for 30 percent of the increase in global food prices, pushing 30 million people worldwide into poverty, aid agency Oxfam said in a report on Wednesday. -- "Oxfam says biofuels pushing 30 million into poverty," Reuters, Jun 25, 2008 http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSL2432915720080625 From the Oxfam report: "Another Inconvenient Truth - How biofuel policies are deepening poverty and accelerating climate change," 25 June 2008 http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/bp114_inconvenient_truth.html Download the full report (58-page pdf) <http://oxfam.intelli-direct.com/e/d.dll?m=234&url=http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/downloads/bp114_inconvenient_truth.pdf> Oxfam estimates that the livelihoods of at least 290 million people are immediately threatened by the food crisis, and the Bank estimates that 100 million people have already fallen into poverty as a result. Thirty per cent of price increases are attributable to biofuels, suggesting biofuels have endangered the livelihoods of nearly 100 million people and dragged over 30 million into poverty. The IMF estimates that last year they accounted for almost half of the increase in demand for major food crops. (IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2008) The OECD has estimated that between 2005 and 2007, almost 60 per cent of the increase in consumption of cereals and vegetable oils was due to biofuels. ('Rising Food Prices: Causes and Consequences', OECD, paper prepared for the DAC High Level Meeting, 20-21 May 2008.) Commentary by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) suggests biofuels may explain 10 per cent of recent food price rises. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) estimates that biofuels explain 30 per cent of food price rises, an estimate corroborated by the IMF. (For IFPRI commentary, see www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/feb/26/food.unitednations. Also see IFPRI (2008) 'Biofuels and Grain Prices: Impacts and Policy Responses'. Simon Johnson, Chief Economist of the IMF, estimated that biofuels account for '20-30 per cent' of price rises on The Today Programme, BBC Radio 4, 14 April 2008. For FAO commentary, see: www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a503b8ce- 131a-11dd-8d91-0000779fd2ac.html) Research from the World Bank puts the contribution of biofuels even higher, at 65 per cent. (D. Mitchell (2008) 'A Note on Rising Food Prices', World Bank, cited in 'Soaring Food Prices: Facts, Perspectives, Impacts and Actions Required', FAO, 2008.) World Bank analysis estimates that recent price rises have led to an increase in global poverty of 105 million people. (Above) Oxfam estimates that the livelihoods of at least 290 million people worldwide are now endangered, necessitating $14.5bn in immediate assistance - the same as rich countries are estimated to have spent on support to biofuels last year. (A. Fraser and F. Mousseau (2008) 'The Time is Now: How World Leaders Should Respond to the Food Price Crisis', Oxfam Briefing Note.) If recent food price inflation - of which IFPRI estimates 30 per cent is attributable to biofuels - is responsible for an increase in the poverty headcount of 100 million and endangering the livelihoods of nearly 300 million, then biofuels may already be responsible for dragging over 30 million people into poverty and similarly endangering the livelihoods of nearly 100 million.73 By some estimates, the current biofuels rush, if it continues as forecast, could result in an extra 600 million hungry people by 2025 (calculated as 30 per cent of the increase in poverty headcount and endangered livelihoods) - 16 million extra for each percentage point increase in food prices until then. -------- Worth a read. >The increased 'demand' for ethanol in the US, is at least partially >due to the gigantic surpluses of 'feed corn' over the last decade. >That corn is only food in an abstract sense, it's mostly all starch, >not edible directly. I'm sure this year the corn yields will be down, >no doubt. But somehow, I don't see the correlation. If there is a correlation. Food & Water Watch did a study last year which found that in real terms the price of corn in 2006 was only half the 1980 price, because of a shift in U.S. farm policy to promoting overproduction of commodities. See "Retail Realities: Corn Prices Do Not Drive Grocery Inflation", September 2007. <http://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/food/agricultural-policy/us-farmbill/retail-realities> But with hedge funds dumping hundreds of billions of dollars on the commodities futures markets in the last couple of years the whole thing has lost touch with any kind of reality such as production or supply and demand. Current prices are being set by gambling on futures, which forces prices up, attracting more money, which forces it up further, dragging real-world prices along behind. The tail's wagging the dog. It's effectively unregulated, tax-free, and virtually guaranteed to make a profit. I also think corn yields will be down this year, whether for good reasons or bad ones. Best Keith >-- >Chip Mefford >-------------------- >Before Enlightenment; > chop wood > carry water >After Enlightenment; > chop wood > carry water >--------------------- >Public Key >http://www.well.com/user/cpm _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (70,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
