-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA1 Lots of stuff snipped, my only comment inline below (leaving thread intact, because it's a very good thread)
Keith Addison wrote: | Hi Chip | |> Keith Addison wrote: |>> http://www.grain.org/seedling/?id=552 |>> |>> Seedling > July 2008 |>> |>> The food emergency and food myths |>> |>> Why Bush is wrong to blame Indians for the rise in food prices |>> |>> Vandana Shiva * |> I really enjoy Vandana Shiva's input. It's clueful and very well |> thought out. | | Yes, isn't it. She's good value, always worth the read. | |> That said; |> |> >SNIP |>> agribusiness in the current food crisis, both through speculation and |> > through the hijacking of food into biofuels, |> |> I keep hearing about this 'hijacking of food into biofuels' argument. |> |> Anyone have the numbers to back this up? | | Some. At the UN food summit in Rome last month: | | Ed Schafer, the US agriculture secretary, said the production of | biofuels contributed less than 3% to the recent rapid rises in food | prices but that assertion clashed with estimates by the International | Monetary Fund, that they are responsible for 20-30% of the price | rises. | | A FAO document distributed yesterday said: "Biofuels accounted for | 59% of the increase in global use of coarse grains and wheat between | 2005-2007, and 56% of the increase in vegetable oils." I am having a really hard time buying this (pun intended) Unless so-called 'food' is being diverted to biofuel production along the lines of 59%, I just don't see how this can be so, in the misapprehended context of 'market demand' aka, supply and demand. | -- "US attacked at food summit over biofuels - Corn ethanol | production blamed for price rises - American delegation rejects link | by UN official," The Guardian, Rome, June 4, 2008 | http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/04/biofuels.food What percentage of corn (that weird yellow #2 frankencorn stuff) is being 'diverted' to ethanol production? I know that the 'American delegation' really isn't exactly a great go-to place for solid un-molested empirical data, however, , , | The American agriculture secretary, Ed Schafer, has told American | reporters that increasing the production of corn ethanol is "the | right policy direction". Corn prices rose on the world markets | throughout the last hours of the summit. | -- "Food summit fails to agree on biofuels," The Guardian, Rome, June 6, 2008 | http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/06/food.biofuels | | Biofuels are responsible for 30 percent of the increase in global | food prices, pushing 30 million people worldwide into poverty, aid | agency Oxfam said in a report on Wednesday. | -- "Oxfam says biofuels pushing 30 million into poverty," Reuters, Jun 25, 2008 | http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSL2432915720080625 | | From the Oxfam report: "Another Inconvenient Truth - How biofuel | policies are deepening poverty and accelerating climate change," 25 | June 2008 | http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/bp114_inconvenient_truth.html | Download the full report (58-page pdf) | <http://oxfam.intelli-direct.com/e/d.dll?m=234&url=http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/downloads/bp114_inconvenient_truth.pdf> | | Oxfam estimates that the livelihoods of at least 290 million people | are immediately threatened by the food crisis, and the Bank estimates | that 100 million people have already fallen into poverty as a result. | Thirty per cent of price increases are attributable to biofuels, | suggesting biofuels have endangered the livelihoods of nearly 100 | million people and dragged over 30 million into poverty. Okay, I don't doubt the numbers here. But I'm still having a difficult time seeing a correlation between non-food corn overproduction, and global food prices. | | The IMF estimates that last year they accounted for almost half of | the increase in demand for major food crops. (IMF World Economic | Outlook, April 2008) | | The OECD has estimated that between 2005 and 2007, almost 60 per cent | of the increase in consumption of cereals and vegetable oils was due | to biofuels. ('Rising Food Prices: Causes and Consequences', OECD, | paper prepared for the DAC High Level Meeting, 20-21 May 2008.) | | Commentary by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) suggests | biofuels may explain 10 per cent of recent food price rises. | | The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) estimates | that biofuels explain 30 per cent of food price rises, an estimate | corroborated by the IMF. | | (For IFPRI commentary, see | www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/feb/26/food.unitednations. Also | see IFPRI (2008) 'Biofuels and Grain Prices: Impacts and Policy | Responses'. Simon Johnson, Chief Economist of the IMF, estimated that | biofuels account for '20-30 per cent' of price rises on The Today | Programme, BBC Radio 4, 14 April 2008. For FAO commentary, see: | www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a503b8ce- 131a-11dd-8d91-0000779fd2ac.html) | | Research from the World Bank puts the contribution of biofuels even | higher, at 65 per cent. (D. Mitchell (2008) 'A Note on Rising Food | Prices', World Bank, cited in 'Soaring Food Prices: Facts, | Perspectives, Impacts and Actions Required', FAO, 2008.) | | World Bank analysis estimates that recent price rises have led to an | increase in global poverty of 105 million people. (Above) | | Oxfam estimates that the livelihoods of at least 290 million people | worldwide are now endangered, necessitating $14.5bn in immediate | assistance - the same as rich countries are estimated to have spent | on support to biofuels last year. (A. Fraser and F. Mousseau (2008) | 'The Time is Now: How World Leaders Should Respond to the Food Price | Crisis', Oxfam Briefing Note.) | | If recent food price inflation - of which IFPRI estimates 30 per cent | is attributable to biofuels - is responsible for an increase in the | poverty headcount of 100 million and endangering the livelihoods of | nearly 300 million, then biofuels may already be responsible for | dragging over 30 million people into poverty and similarly | endangering the livelihoods of nearly 100 million.73 | | By some estimates, the current biofuels rush, if it continues as | forecast, could result in an extra 600 million hungry people by 2025 | (calculated as 30 per cent of the increase in poverty headcount and | endangered livelihoods) - 16 million extra for each percentage point | increase in food prices until then. | | -------- | | Worth a read. | |> The increased 'demand' for ethanol in the US, is at least partially |> due to the gigantic surpluses of 'feed corn' over the last decade. |> That corn is only food in an abstract sense, it's mostly all starch, |> not edible directly. I'm sure this year the corn yields will be down, |> no doubt. But somehow, I don't see the correlation. | | If there is a correlation. Food & Water Watch did a study last year | which found that in real terms the price of corn in 2006 was only | half the 1980 price, because of a shift in U.S. farm policy to | promoting overproduction of commodities. See "Retail Realities: Corn | Prices Do Not Drive Grocery Inflation", September 2007. | <http://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/food/agricultural-policy/us-farmbill/retail-realities> | | But with hedge funds dumping hundreds of billions of dollars on the | commodities futures markets in the last couple of years the whole | thing has lost touch with any kind of reality such as production or | supply and demand. Current prices are being set by gambling on | futures, which forces prices up, attracting more money, which forces | it up further, dragging real-world prices along behind. The tail's | wagging the dog. It's effectively unregulated, tax-free, and | virtually guaranteed to make a profit. Now here I think is a point that -in my considered opinion- gets a lot closer to the heart of the matter. | I also think corn yields will be down this year, whether for good | reasons or bad ones. Yup. count on it. But someone help me out here, what salient point is it that I am missing? | | Best | | Keith - -- Chip Mefford - -------------------- Before Enlightenment; ~ chop wood ~ carry water After Enlightenment; ~ chop wood ~ carry water - --------------------- Public Key http://www.well.com/user/cpm -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v1.4.7 (GNU/Linux) Comment: Using GnuPG with Mozilla - http://enigmail.mozdev.org iD8DBQFIcilDlwL/NsEHg6sRAkKMAJ9JCRBwORgENnnqse9d+UPB83f5JACgktpn j9LW0xZocoto1RHVgii/6Ww= =Cd32 -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (70,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
