On 18/09/2017 10:20 AM, Ryan Kelly wrote:
> On 15 September 2017 at 10:35, Alex Davis <ada...@mozilla.com
> <mailto:ada...@mozilla.com>> wrote:
> 
>         If we were more aggressive and did 52, we'd cover 87.7% of
>         users... which seems *too* aggressive but perhaps we can see if
>         we can try to nudge people to upgrade first.
> 
> 
>     I'd like to make a correction. It's 92.62% of users that are 52 or
>     higher.
> 
> 
> That does seem aggressive, but we could also consider a nuanced approach
> to phasing out support, because we have the following possibilities for
> what "removing support" means:

I'm slightly skeptical of that data (although a quick look doesn't make
it clear there's anything wrong with it, if there actually is) - but my
understanding has always been that the uptake of new Firefox versions is
slower than we'd like, but generally successful within the 6 week cycle.

By contrast, if I look at 10% of all desktop Firefoxes that submitted a
sync ping in the last 7 days I get:

49 -        1, 0.00
50 -    26527, 0.34
51 -    27602, 0.35
52 -   419814, 5.31
53 -    56468, 0.71
54 -   257171, 3.26
55 -  7002788, 88.63
56 -    83928, 1.06
57 -    26413, 0.33

so in that 10% sample, there was exactly 1 version 49. Looking at 52
(current ESR) and up gives ~99.3% of all pings.

https://gist.github.com/mhammond/46906eb3de269f3969e2fffc6dd801eb

FWIW, going back 28 days (still a 10% sample) shows the same basic
pattern, although obviously 54 is higher due to it being the current
release for some of that period.

49 -        5, 0.00
50 -   109896, 0.36
51 -   117934, 0.39
52 -  1829602, 6.03
53 -   231241, 0.76
54 -  6847774, 22.58
55 - 20751445, 68.42
56 -   343482, 1.13
57 -    98950, 0.33

(this is the same gist as above, but ndays=28 instead of ndays=7)

Mark

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