On 19/09/2017 3:54 AM, Leif Oines wrote:
> Thanks for running those numbers Mark. I've tried to recreate the same
> thing using the sync_summary_v2 derived dataset in re:dash. I suspect
> that since you're pulling raw pings perhaps we should trust those
> more... but I could be wrong. for comparison, below are the analogous
> numbers I'm getting from re:dash
> (https://sql.telemetry.mozilla.org/queries/38529
> <https://sql.telemetry.mozilla.org/queries/38529>). they are based on
> the entire sync_summary_v2 dataset for the past 7 days.
> 
> version       counts  prop
> 48    1       0
> 50    47,569  0.01
> 51    53,285  0.01
> 52    500,793 0.06
> 53    136,974 0.02
> 54    906,476 0.11
> 55    5,987,420       0.76
> 56    92,960  0.01
> 57    19,784  0
> 
> 
> so, according to these numbers versions 52 and up should cover 98.7% .
> that's pretty close to what Mark estimates. however I have a couple
> questions/comments:
> 
> 1. Mark you said that your numbers are based on a 10% sample, yet they
> seem to be around the same order of magnitude as my numbers. as far as i
> know sync_summary_v2 is not a sampled dataset, so do we know what the
> difference there might be?

I just counted "pings" - where each ping may contain a number of "syncs"
- so I guess your data suggests we see around 10 syncs per ping (which
sounds about right)

> 2. Apparently we didn't land any client-side telemetry for sync until
> version 47 or so (i think?). that means that when we count users based
> on FxA (not sync) stats, we will see a longer tail of users with older
> versions. so when making this decision maybe we should pay attention to
> that?

It turns out we actually landed it in 50! I'm sure that somewhere there
is data for Firefox in general - indeed, I guess we really just need the
same query run against the "main ping" - I'll have a go at that...

> with that in mind here are the comparable numbers for the FxA data. I
> omitted ios devices and versions with only 1 user:
> https://sql.telemetry.mozilla.org/queries/38604

The other thing I don't have a handle on is why these users are hitting
FxA at all. My hypothesis is that the vast majority of Sync users visit
accounts.firefox.com when configuring a device, but rarely after that.
My gut tells me that it should be rare that a user using 49 would be
configuring that device - I can much easier understand they configured
it when 49 was current.

Is there any reason we expect Firefox versions to have a different
distribution when hitting FxA vs the general population (and indeed, do
we expect either of those to be different than those actually syncing)

/me shrugs...

Cheers,

Mark
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