At 07:14 PM 11/1/2000 -0800, malmo wrote..
>Ah, there's that rhetorical shield of yours again. Because RC hasn't seen
>the evidence it doesn't exist. If there is no documentation then it doesn't
>exist.
Perhaps I'm being too demanding given the general lack of documentation
about much of anything in Africa. (One colleague has a book about
development economics entitled "Planning with Facts.") However, my point
is that the claim that East Africans are using EPO to gain most if not all
of their advantage is simply illogical in the face of the facts about
performances by very young runners in that region. The accusers have to
demonstrate somehow that 16 to 17 year olds in Kenya are getting EPO while
Europeans and American teenagers with substantially higher disposable
incomes (and a demonstrated greater preponderance of drug use, including
steroids) apparently are not. Just saying "they're just running too damn
fast" is in absolutely no way a legitimate means of making these accusations.
As a counterpoint, I will repeat my belief that the Chinese women's
performances in 1993 were enhanced in some manner (a belief which may have
been confirmed with the recent Chinese drug enforcement actions). However,
I make that statement based on several logical steps: the performances
involved sudden dramatic improvements; the improvements were for a
relatively large group of athletes within a concentrated period of time;
the WR in at least one event was broken repeatedly over several days by
many athletes; one athlete broke at least 4 WRs (multiple times in 1 event)
in a 5 day period, none of which have been approached again; even though
the athletes showed excellent performances beforehand (the 1993 WCs),
nothing indicated this level of condition; none of the athletes again
repeated performances at these levels subsequently; the athletes in
question trained together under controlled conditions for an extended
period of time (i.e., years, not weeks); the Chinese government has
substantial resources and good institutional control throughout the
nation. Even the 1997 Chinese performances pale in comparison.
If those making similar accusations about EPO usage by Africans can
construct a similar line of reasoning, then I'll start listening, but until
then, they're just blowin' smoke as far as I'm concerned.
>I don't believe anyone has ever suggested that either the Kenyan or
>Ethiopian governments has, or even possess the ability or will to administer
>an American-style doping program. These countries, both known for a long
>history of neglect of its citizenry, prove each year that getting travel
>visas in order is a monumental task.
>
>malmo
You only make my point here. There are virtually NO well-organized,
effective institutions in those countries (several of my former ag econ
classmates have worked on development projects in Kenya and other African
nations). To create the wave of performances at such young ages, before
these athletes have traveled to Europe where they might gain access to EPO,
would require a concerted effort by a well-organized institution. Unless
Nike or Fila is making such an investment, (and I suspect shareholders
would question such expenditures, however hidden, in these countries, even
if as "market development;" and why not spend similar money in other
countries?), there are no other institutions ready and able.
Richard McCann
