On Tue, 26 May 2020 at 01:12, Paul Mansfield <paul+uk...@mansfield.co.uk> wrote:
> So is it actually feasible to announce *any* date when IPv6 will be > the only connectivity offered to the end user? The thing is that > without target dates and deadlines, things will drag on indefinitely. > I'll admit I wanted to deliberately put up a challenging statement, > but not to troll, really. I genuinely want an answer to "is there a > possible date?". > > The thing about Y2K and 2038 is that they are absolutely fixed dates. No amount of arguing or pleading would move them. On the other hand, if a flag day for IPv4 shutoff was chosen it would be arbitrary and could, if needed, be moved. While the vast majority of the internet is IPv4 first there will be pressure to move the date (and I believe that pressure will be too strong to resist), and if people think the date might be moved then they won't migrate to IPv6. To me, the next obvious step along the migration path will be people setting up IPv6-only ISPs which use the savings from not deploying IPv4 to reduce the cost for their customers. Not all content is available over IPv6 yet, but at some point there will be enough that the savings make using IPv6 only (and losing access to large parts of the internet) worthwhile - and that will start to put pressure on the IPv4-only content to move. Dan
