I am sure this is a subject no one is interested in but me, BUT, I wrote:
This is actually closer to Wright brothers test than most people realize. For a non-expert observer, the early flights were difficult to distinguish from an uncontrolled powered hop.
In 2003 on national television news an expert at Kitty Hawk tried to fly a replica of the 1903 airplane. In 2005 someone in Dayton tried to fly a replica of the 1905 flyer, which was far better than the '03 machine. You can see the videos on YouTube. Have a look! You will be hard pressed to determine whether these are controlled flights or washing-machine-with-propeller stunts. You can't tell if the pilot is in control of anything, or merely along for the ride. The second flight is a bit more what you expect, but it ends in what most people would call a spin-out and crash. The shaken pilot emerges and quotes the old adage: "any landing you can walk away from is a good landing."
When you do research into fundamentally new, unexplored subjects, it can be hard to distinguish success from failure. For a non-expert, it can even be hard to know what you are looking at. For example, people who do not understand helium or instrument errors can make drastic mistakes. (People with the initials S.K.)
Imagine you are a reporter or bank president in 1906 and someone asks you "did that thing really fly?" You might have difficulty giving an honest and competent answer. The Wrights were superbly skilled bicycle riders and pilots and they seldom spun out or smashed to pieces, but if you happened to be there on a bad day you would get the wrong impression. In 2010 if you ask a reporter at the APS "is cold fusion real after all?" you should not expect a reliable or meaningful answer. Suppose a reporter or amateur reads this blog:
<http://blogs.nature.com/news/blog/2010/03/acs_cold_fusion_calorimeter.html>http://blogs.nature.com/news/blog/2010/03/acs_cold_fusion_calorimeter.html
They would find messages from someone who does not understand helium or the W-L theory, and crackpot notions about calorimetry from Kirk Shanahan. They would be would have difficulty judging what's what.
- Jed
