On Jan 24, 2010, at 8:26 PM, Frank Middleton wrote:

> What an entertaining discussion! Hope the following adds to the
> entertainment value :).
> 
> Any comments on this Dec. 2005 study on disk failure and error rates?
> http://research.microsoft.com/apps/pubs/default.aspx?id=64599
> 
> Seagate says their 1.5TB consumer grade drives are good for 24*365
> operation. http://labs.google.com/papers/disk_failures.pdf implies yes.
> This paper is quite interesting. Power cycles - bad. High temps - not
> so bad...
> 
> The specs say an annualized failure rate of 0.34% and mean time between
> failures of 750,000 hours. 8760/750,000 = 1.17%. Hmmm. So around one
> disk in a hundred will fail each year? What does that mean to a system with
> a simple mirror if one disk in 20 will fail in 5 years?

Unfortunately, this is marketeering and you need to look at the footnotes
to get the real story.
http://blogs.sun.com/relling/entry/awesome_disk_afr_or_is

> What is the MTTDL of a mirrored pair of consumer grade 1.5TB drives,
> or the probability of a single data loss (say) during a 5 year period,
> perhaps compared to the probability (say) of winning the lottery :-),
> or being hit by a 20 ton meteor, assuming at least one device failure?

MTTDL using model[2] for a Seagate ST31500341AS and 7x24x365 
operation:
        MTBF =  700,000 hours
        UER = 1 error per 1e14 bits read, max
        1.5 TB = 2,930,277,168 512-byte sectors
        Precon_fail = 2,930,277,168 * 512 bytes/sector * 8 bits/byte / 1e-14 = 
0.12
        MTTDL = 700,000 / (2 * 0.12) = 2,916,666 hours

This is not that great, really.  To bring it back to something a bit more
understandable, it is an annualized data loss rate of 0.3 %.

references for above:
http://www.seagate.com/staticfiles/support/disc/manuals/desktop/Barracuda%207200.11/100507013e.pdf

> The OP originally asked "Best 1.5TB drives for consumer RAID?". Despite
> the entertainment value of the comments, it isn't clear that this has been
> answered. I suspect the OP was expecting a discussion of WD vs. Seagate
> vs. Hitachi, etc., but the discussion didn't go that way, perhaps because
> they are equally good (or bad) based on the TLER discussion? Has anyone
> actually experienced an extended timeout from one of these drives (from
> any manufacturer) causing a problem?

Extended timeouts lead to manual intervention, not a change in the 
probability of data loss.  In other words, they affect the MTTR, not
the reliability. For a 7x24x365 deployments, MTTR is a concern because
it impacts availability. For home use, perhaps not so much.
 -- richard

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