Some decent antibody test data has just started coming out of New York. One
key of course is you have to randomly select the participants. I have been
working rather than watching the news today, but I think I saw something
about the percent of the population who seem to have been infected at some
point is around 20% in NYC but an order of magnitude lower in upstate NY.
Which makes sense, and also tends to make me believe the tests are somewhat
accurate.
There were a couple studies in California but the size and design of those
studies have been questioned.
From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Bill Prince
Sent: Monday, April 27, 2020 2:25 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
Well... here we are one week later, and we just ticked over 1 million
confirmed infections in the US. Let's hope that's the tip of the iceberg,
and that the actual infections is in the neighborhood of 50-80 million. I
don't believe the number is actually that high, but I would believe
something around 5-8 million. Either way, it is still just speculation.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/20/2020 9:33 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
What are the treatments that are now working? I try to be optimistic about
antivirals and convalescent plasma, but right now they mainly have
ventilators, which honestly aren't very successful if 70-80% of the people
die. They keep doing that because it's the textbook therapy for respiratory
distress, but it ain't working. Even if it were working, ventilators are
not a treatment, they don't reverse the disease, they are just a measure to
get you oxygen while your body hopefully fights the infection. And then you
have the people experiencing kidney failure and needing dialysis, they're
not sure if the damage is permanent.
I hope you're right that the medical community has learned how to treat it,
but I haven't heard the evidence for that.
Regarding a vaccine, one interesting piece of information I read was that
even if they develop a successful and safe vaccine (many challenges
including the sensitization problem), then they have to scale up vaccine
production. Right now most vaccines are just for each new wave of
schoolchildren, this would have to be for the entire population. And not in
chicken eggs, it would have to be in big vats. And the interesting part is
they could repurpose fermentation tanks used for things like brewing beer.
From: AF <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On
Behalf Of Bill Prince
Sent: Monday, April 20, 2020 11:20 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
Time will tell based on whether it actually starts declining in a meaningful
way, or whether we're going to bump along for a bit. Remember, the goal was
to flatten the curve; it wasn't necessarily going to reduce the number of
infections. I get the impression that the medical community has learned a
lot about how to actually treat it.
Let's see where we are a week from today (April 27). If we are over 1
million infections, this may be going a while yet. If it is under 1 million,
I would be more encouraged.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/20/2020 8:20 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:
Looks a bit Gaussian to me. I hope...
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