I think an actual good case study would be the crew of the TR, which was
100% tested multiple times. ( single time for positives ).. Not
necessarily a good cross section of normal society but a good test of
the virulence of this virus and the morbidity in healthy? individuals...
On 4/27/20 12:54 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
Some decent antibody test data has just started coming out of New
York. One key of course is you have to randomly select the
participants. I have been working rather than watching the news
today, but I think I saw something about the percent of the population
who seem to have been infected at some point is around 20% in NYC but
an order of magnitude lower in upstate NY. Which makes sense, and
also tends to make me believe the tests are somewhat accurate.
There were a couple studies in California but the size and design of
those studies have been questioned.
*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
*Sent:* Monday, April 27, 2020 2:25 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
Well... here we are one week later, and we just ticked over 1 million
confirmed infections in the US. Let's hope that's the tip of the
iceberg, and that the actual infections is in the neighborhood of
50-80 million. I don't believe the number is actually that high, but I
would believe something around 5-8 million. Either way, it is still
just speculation.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/20/2020 9:33 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
What are the treatments that are now working? I try to be
optimistic about antivirals and convalescent plasma, but right now
they mainly have ventilators, which honestly aren’t very
successful if 70-80% of the people die. They keep doing that
because it’s the textbook therapy for respiratory distress, but it
ain’t working. Even if it were working, ventilators are not a
treatment, they don’t reverse the disease, they are just a measure
to get you oxygen while your body hopefully fights the infection.
And then you have the people experiencing kidney failure and
needing dialysis, they’re not sure if the damage is permanent.
I hope you’re right that the medical community has learned how to
treat it, but I haven’t heard the evidence for that.
Regarding a vaccine, one interesting piece of information I read
was that even if they develop a successful and safe vaccine (many
challenges including the sensitization problem), then they have to
scale up vaccine production. Right now most vaccines are just for
each new wave of schoolchildren, this would have to be for the
entire population. And not in chicken eggs, it would have to be
in big vats. And the interesting part is they could repurpose
fermentation tanks used for things like brewing beer.
*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com>
<mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
*Sent:* Monday, April 20, 2020 11:20 AM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
Time will tell based on whether it actually starts declining in a
meaningful way, or whether we're going to bump along for a bit.
Remember, the goal was to flatten the curve; it wasn't necessarily
going to reduce the number of infections. I get the impression
that the medical community has learned a lot about how to actually
treat it.
Let's see where we are a week from today (April 27). If we are
over 1 million infections, this may be going a while yet. If it is
under 1 million, I would be more encouraged.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/20/2020 8:20 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:
Looks a bit Gaussian to me. I hope...
image
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