Assuming the vaccine is 90% effective, your neighbor (vaccinated) has a 9 in 10 chance of not getting it. Unvaccinated, your neighbor will get it (per your scenario) and now has the ability to infect others. A good analogy is critical-mass in a nuclear reactor; the vaccine represents the control rods and the infected represent the decaying isotope. Drop the control rods and the reaction stops - pull them out and the reaction goes super-critical.
I wish I could tie this to Dr. Strangelove, but it is late and I am tired. On Sat, Jul 24, 2021 at 9:27 PM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote: > I laugh at the whole "get vaccinated so you dont give it to your neighbor" > coming from the vaccinated who are spreading it to their neighbors. > > Good lulz. > > Anybody wanna charter a flight from texas to dc? > > On Sat, Jul 24, 2021, 8:01 PM Chuck McCown via AF <af@af.afmug.com> wrote: > >> Run Forrest >> >> Sent from my iPhone >> >> > On Jul 24, 2021, at 6:09 PM, Jay Weekley <par...@cyberbroadband.net> >> wrote: >> > >> > Yay Alabama. >> > >> > Jaime Solorza wrote: >> >> Getting vaccinated is just the correct thing to do...like polio and >> other ones.. >> >> I don't see it as an infringement on my rights at all. >> >> Families are dying in the south mostly...the virus doesn't give a shit >> what you believe... >> >> >> >> >> >> On Sat, Jul 24, 2021, 4:38 PM Forrest Christian (List Account) < >> li...@packetflux.com <mailto:li...@packetflux.com>> wrote: >> >> >> >> I've been trying to stay out of this to avoid stirring this up >> >> further, but, it's probably time for me to stick my $0.02 in... >> >> >> >> One primary role of government is to make rules or laws in places >> >> where people's rights (or opinions) come in conflict with each >> other. >> >> >> >> Pre-vaccine, the most likely way for me to be protected from >> >> infection is if other people behaved like they might be a >> >> carrier. That is, limit social interaction, stay away from other >> >> people if possible, wear masks, practice good hygiene. Some >> >> people didn't want to do this. Other people didn't want to be >> >> infected, but couldn't protect themselves effectively. Both >> >> sides had rights - the right to do what one wants vs the right not >> >> to be infected by others who are a carrier. Add to that the right >> >> of being able to have an ICU bed available if you did end up >> >> infected. At this point, the government needed to step in and >> >> make a decision about who's rights were going to be protected, and >> >> because of the nature of COVID, most places ended up choosing the >> >> rights of people not to be infected. >> >> >> >> Post-vaccine this conversation changes. Now I have a way to >> >> protect myself. Post-vaccination, my risk of dying or having >> >> long-term effects from COVID is more like dying from the flu (if >> >> not less). As a result, now that anyone who wants a shot can get >> >> one, I really could care less whether someone else wears a mask or >> >> gets vaccinated. Your choice. And the government rules should >> >> reflect that, which most of them do at this point. >> >> >> >> There is one main caveat, and that is that in some areas we're >> >> going to have a resurgence of COVID among (mostly) the >> >> unvaccinated. If unvaccinated people start to fill the hospital >> >> ICU wards, then either we need to go back to mask mandates and >> >> similar in those areas, OR we need to be willing to kick >> >> unvaccinated people out of the ICU when they fill, and let them >> >> die of COVID at home. Yes, this is cold, but if you chose a path >> >> that results in a higher risk of dying, then you should also take >> >> the risk of there not being an ICU bed available to you if you >> >> need it. >> >> >> >> There is also the concern about variants being generated by the >> >> virus continuing to run rampant among parts of the population. >> I'm going to ignore this as this makes my point a bit more messy >> >> as then you have to start asking difficult questions about what >> >> the actual risk of this is versus the downside of forcing a >> >> population to either be vaccinated or continue quarantine+mask >> >> wearing. I'm not convinced that there is strong enough evidence, >> >> either way, to make a decision here. >> >> >> >> The other point which continues to be frustrating is that we need >> >> people to make their decision about being vaccinated based on >> >> actual facts. Not based on talking points or conspiracy theories >> >> from the left or the right. The vaccine isn't magnetic. The >> >> vaccine, although still not fully FDA approved has proven to have >> >> a lower statistical risk of bad outcomes than COVID itself. No, >> >> the vaccine isn't 100% effective, but it is highly effective. >> No, the vaccines don't have tracking chips. Even if you survive >> >> COVID-19 (99% chance of doing so), the likelihood of having >> >> long-term health effects is much higher (over 10%). No, the >> >> vaccines don't alter your DNA. And on and on. >> >> >> >> Sadly, it seems that the worst of these conspiracy theories around >> >> the vaccine and COVID continue to come from the right. I totally >> >> respect people who look at the real facts and decide not to get >> >> the vaccine. I can understand how two people who look at the >> >> facts can choose either way, although I do believe that with the >> >> real facts, most people would end up with the vaccine. But the >> >> whole slew of made-up crap that is circulating is detrimental to >> >> people actually being able to make an informed decision as opposed >> >> to jumping on this or that conspiracy theory and making decisions >> >> based on that. Add to that a healthy dose of ignoring facts that >> >> don't match up with one's world view and you've got a situation >> >> where many people make decisions based not on facts but on rumors >> >> and suppositions. >> >> >> >> And before someone thinks I'm saying the right has an exclusive >> >> lock on conspiracy theories, I need to state for the record that >> >> the left has their fair share as well. Which side has made up >> >> more crap seems to revolve around the issue, with some issues >> >> largely just being both sides making up crap to make the issue >> >> appear larger than it is. >> >> >> >> On Sat, Jul 24, 2021 at 7:13 AM David Coudron >> >> <david.coud...@advantenon.com >> >> <mailto:david.coud...@advantenon.com>> wrote: >> >> >> >> This is the key to the issue. Who decides what a valid medical >> >> reason is. In this country, we have always allowed an >> >> individual to discuss and evaluate medical treatments with >> >> their doctor and their family and then make their own >> >> decision. The individual’s determination of necessity for a >> >> medical treatment may vary from person to person. Their >> >> perception of risk of treatment versus reward of not getting >> >> sick is not the same for every instance. Most people are >> >> pretty smart and will make decision in the best interest of >> >> their situation. Are we now saying that the individual can >> >> no longer make this determination? That people are not smart >> >> enough to make the decision in their best interest? That >> >> someone on an email list knows better than each individual >> >> whether or not that individual should be taking any medical >> >> treatment including a vaccination? I hope we are not moving >> >> into an era in the country where people decide for others >> >> whether or not they should take any medical treatment, >> >> especially when we are talking about an experimental >> >> vaccine. If we are suggesting that the group can now make >> >> decisions for mandatory medical procedures, that is a pretty >> >> slippery slope. I believe in the good of people and their >> >> ability to make a good decision when they have enough facts. >> I suspect most unvaccinated folks will eventually have enough >> >> data to determine they are ready to be vaccinated. >> >> >> >> Again, and I can’t say this enough, if a person is vaccinated >> >> and they believe the vaccine works, why are they concerned >> >> that others are not vaccinated. The only people at risk are >> >> those who have decided not to be vaccinated and they have >> >> accepted that risk. >> >> >> >> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com >> >> <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> *On Behalf Of * Robert >> >> *Sent:* Friday, July 23, 2021 8:53 PM >> >> *To:* af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> >> >> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT somewhat political >> >> >> >> David, >> >> Do you have any research of the percentage of people who >> >> "have a valid medical reason" for not taking the vaccine? I >> >> don't imagine it's anywhere near the 45% of the US population >> >> the is refusing that are not below the current age limit. I >> >> would WAG that it's probably a lot less than the 20% number >> >> not taking it that would get us to effective herd immunity. >> >> >> >> Now the kids are getting it and that we don't have a solution >> >> for. >> >> >> >> On 7/23/21 4:20 PM, Chuck McCown via AF wrote: >> >> >> >> AIDS was / Is 100% avoidable. COVID is like someone with >> >> AIDS spraying you down with their precious bodily fluids >> >> by sneezing. People have been prosecuted for infecting >> >> others with AIDS. Why not COVID? If you don’t want the >> >> vax, fine but you need a full body condom if you come >> >> within 100’ of another person. >> >> >> >> Sent from my iPhone >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> On Jul 23, 2021, at 4:24 PM, David Coudron >> >> <david.coud...@advantenon.com> >> >> <mailto:david.coud...@advantenon.com> wrote: >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> There are valid reasons for deciding to take this >> >> vaccine, the shingles vaccine, the flu vaccine, or a >> >> myriad of other medications. Each decision should be >> >> based on risk/reward of that drug and the medical >> >> condition being treated. To think that you know >> >> everyone’s medical situation better than they do >> >> doesn’t seem very feasible and awfully presumptive. >> To call them selfish for making a decision they >> >> believe is in their best medical interest seems overly >> >> judgmental. Yes, there are people are deciding not to >> >> take it simply because they think they shouldn’t be >> >> forced to take a medical treatment against their >> >> will. You may feel that we should force them to take >> >> the treatment for the better good. I doubt you would >> >> feel the same about mandatory castration of young men >> >> to curb overcrowding of the earth. Obviously there >> >> is a line somewhere about forced treatment for the >> >> greater good. I am not attempting to determine where >> >> that line is, only suggesting that folks have valid >> >> medical reasons for not deciding to take the vaccine >> >> and they shouldn’t be publicly shamed for making that >> >> decision. It doesn’t seem that far fetched, but I am >> >> learning I see things differently than some other >> >> folks. So be it. >> >> >> >> I love the argument that we have to get vaccinated, >> >> but we still have to act like the vaccine doesn’t work >> >> in order to save the human race. Seems like a >> >> disconnect there. >> >> >> >> If we were really so worried about infecting others or >> >> causing harm to others, we would avoid all other >> >> activities that create risk for others. We’d never >> >> drive a car, much less have a beer and get in a car. >> I doubt that very many of us on this list can say >> >> that. We would never allow the sale of fatty foods. >> We would force each and everyone to get to a body mass >> >> within our accepted range. Keep in mind life is >> >> risky. We don’t need to do stupid things, but being >> >> alive carries with it the risk of dying. We are all >> >> much more likely to die of heart disease, stroke >> >> related illness, or cancer than we are of Covid. >> Those are just the facts. Many folks make small >> >> adjustments to reduce the risk of those likely causes >> >> of mortality, but have long ago passed on decisions to >> >> make big changes to eliminate the possibility of those >> >> causes of death. >> >> >> >> I have long ago decided not to live in constant fear >> >> of these things. While I chose to be vaccinated, I >> >> respect the right of folks to make the best choice for >> >> their situation. I also respect the right of someone >> >> who is not in the best physical condition to eat a >> >> steak. I realize that a drunk driver might kill me >> >> some day, but I respect the right of individuals to go >> >> to a bar and expect that most (but not all) are >> >> responsible enough not to drink and drive when they >> >> have had too much. >> >> >> >> Keep in mind that this virus would have never come to >> >> our country if we never allowed anyone in or out of >> >> it. But we understand that certain personal freedoms >> >> are worth the possibility of catching a disease that >> >> might kill us. I have a tough time with the mass >> >> hypochondria surrounding this situation. >> >> >> >> Sorry, I am not meaning to make anyone mad, just >> >> trying to keep perspective. I just don’t >> >> understand why folks get so bent out of shape if they >> >> are already vaccinated. I guess they don’t believe >> >> the vaccine will work because if it does, there is >> >> nothing to worry about. >> >> >> >> I wager that given Covid’s relation to influenza like >> >> viruses, that it is with us permanently. We will >> >> have yearly updates to the vaccination, but we’ll >> >> never be rid of it. Not because people aren’t >> >> getting vaccinated, but because it will always mutate >> >> ahead of the vaccine, just like the flu virus. >> Please don’t take this as an argument to not work on >> >> vaccines, we absolutely should as it will save >> >> lives. But as Carl pointed out below, vaccines >> >> aren’t 100% effective……. 😊 >> >> >> >> I will lay a friendly wager down. Remember, we had a >> >> AIDS epidemic several years ago. Did we force people >> >> to stop having sex or many of the other high risk >> >> things that led to AIDS? Does anyone even talk about >> >> AIDS anymore? 32 million people died of AIDS and >> >> people still die from it. No one talks about it any >> >> more. Covid will be the same way in 10 years. That >> >> is my bet. >> >> >> >> Again, lots of stuff to poke holes in here I am >> >> sure. My only original point was that there are >> >> valid reasons folks chose not to get vaccinated. We >> >> can’t and shouldn’t know what they are, but should >> >> respect their right to chose. >> >> >> >> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> >> >> <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Carl >> >> Peterson >> >> *Sent:* Friday, July3, 2021 4:30 PM >> >> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group >> >> <af@af.afmug.com> <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> >> >> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT somewhat political >> >> >> >> No vaccination is 100% effective. From a public >> >> policy perspective, you need to pull on the levers >> >> that work in order to get R0 to be less than 1. We >> >> know that a good percentage of people will follow a >> >> mask mandate. Even if most of that group is >> >> vaccinated that lever will still do something since no >> >> vaccine is 100% effective and some number of that >> >> population is walking around as symptom-free carriers >> >> at any given time. >> >> >> >> Getting most people vaccinated would be the best way >> >> to lower R0, but if someone is too self centered to >> >> care about their neighbors or their country there >> >> isn't much you can do to make them care. That lever >> >> isn't doing much these days. The issue here really is >> >> about what is best for society vs what an individual >> >> thinks is best for themselves. An individual's >> >> personal risk of having serious Covid complications is >> >> pretty low so if they believe there is some risk to >> >> the vaccine and don't account for externalities, e.g. >> >> them infecting other people, then it's hard to >> >> convince them to get vaccinated. >> >> >> >> On Fri, Jul 23, 2021 at 4:05 PM Dennis Burgess >> >> <dmburg...@linktechs.net >> >> <mailto:dmburg...@linktechs.net>> wrote: >> >> >> >> Why does someone who has made an informed choice >> >> not to get vaxxed by a NON-FDA approved drug have >> >> not sit out in timeout? This is a free society, >> >> if you are so scared, you stay home. I will take >> >> my chances. >> >> >> >> *<image001.png>* >> >> >> >> *Dennis Burgess* >> >> >> >> * >> >> *Author of "Learn RouterOS- Second Edition” >> >> >> >> *Link Technologies, Inc*-- Mikrotik & WISP Support >> >> Services >> >> >> >> *Office*: 314-735-0270 Website: >> >> http://www.linktechs.net <http://www.linktechs.net/ >> > >> >> >> >> Create Wireless Coverage’s with >> >> www.towercoverage.com <http://www.towercoverage.com >> > >> >> >> >> Need MikroTik Cloud Management: >> >> https://cloud.linktechs.net >> >> >> >> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com >> >> <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> *On Behalf Of >> >> *Jan-GAMs >> >> *Sent:* Friday, July 23, 2021 3:32 PM >> >> *To:* af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> >> >> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT somewhat political >> >> >> >> There is no having a sane discussion on this >> >> topic. This is more like a whining child having >> >> an open temper-tantrum in public. Un-vaxxed >> >> persons are a health hazard and attempting to >> >> explain this to a child is a bit difficult. Those >> >> who don't have a vaccine should not be allowed in >> >> public. Every time a non-vaxxed person gets sick >> >> with Covid there is the potential for a new >> >> variant even worse than the Delta variant. >> >> Un-vaxxed persons should be quarrantined as they >> >> are a health-hazard to everyone around them and to >> >> the public at large. >> >> >> >> On 7/23/21 1:11 PM, David Coudron wrote: >> >> >> >> I know, we can all make our own decisions. >> >> However, I don’t believe I have stated >> >> anything that varies from the facts. I can >> >> send you the Moderna sheet I received with my >> >> vaccine if you want to see that. >> >> >> >> Your points about FDA approval are probably >> >> accurate, however, why is not OK to say that I >> >> want to wait for the approval? That doesn’t >> >> seem so unreasonable. We don’t let folks on >> >> the plane based on the likelihood that those >> >> on the no-fly list probably won’t show up to >> >> get on the plane anyway. We still check each >> >> and every person to make sure. Just like we >> >> do the FDA approval process to make sure. >> Otherwise, we could just tell drug companies >> >> “if you are pretty sure you’d pass anyway, we >> >> won’t bother putting you through the approval >> >> process” We don’t do that for good reason. >> >> >> >> I agree with you on the memes both ways. >> >> Neither approach are helping the situation. >> It should be a discussion based upon the >> >> scientific merits of the situation. >> Unfortunately both side love to poke at the >> >> intelligence of those that don’t agree with >> >> their decision. >> >> >> >> There is no way to know this for sure, but I >> >> wonder how many folks publicly shaming others >> >> for not taking the vaccine know that it is not >> >> FDA approved? >> >> >> >> Likely won’t change lots of folks decisions, >> >> nor am I suggesting it should have. But I >> >> don’t think that those of us that decided to >> >> go ahead with the vaccination get to make >> >> medical decisions for those who aren’t >> >> comfortable with an experimental vaccine. >> >> >> >> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> >> >> <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of >> >> *Adam Moffett >> >> *Sent:* Friday, July 23, 2021 2:56 PM >> >> *To:* af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> >> >> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT somewhat political >> >> >> >> I'm not calling anybody stupid, but I don't >> >> agree with most of your list. >> >> >> >> On 7/23/2021 3:37 PM, David Coudron wrote: >> >> >> >> Here is what I find particularly >> >> challenging about suggesting that folks >> >> who have chosen not to take the vaccine >> >> are not that smart. >> >> >> >> 1. Folks who do that never talk about >> >> that fact that this is not an FDA >> >> approved medicine/vaccine. I took >> >> the Moderna vaccine, the paperwork >> >> clearly stated several facts. Among >> >> them are: >> >> >> >> 1. This is not FDA approved. >> >> >> >> It has an emergency use authorization. FDA >> >> approval takes a long time, but around 90% of >> >> the submissions end up approved because they >> >> are pretty well tested by the manufacturer >> >> before they apply. Anybody applying for FDA >> >> approval already has a pretty good idea >> >> whether it's going to go through or not. >> Presumably people on a no-fly list don't >> >> routinely show up at the airport expecting to >> >> board a plane. Presumably people don't try to >> >> get a CDL if they know they'll fail the drug >> >> test. Same idea. >> >> >> >> >> >> 1. >> >> 2. This “vaccine” has not been proven >> >> to prevent the virus. While we >> >> likely all agree that there is a >> >> very good likelihood that this >> >> “vaccine” will help prevent it, it >> >> is far from a proven fact. >> >> >> >> 99% of people dying of Covid right now are >> >> un-vaccinated. We can split hairs and say >> >> maybe it didn't prevent them from becoming >> >> infected, but it clearly prevents them from >> dying. >> >> >> >> >> >> 1. >> >> >> >> 1. The argument is, “there should be no >> >> reason to think this vaccine isn’t >> >> safe since people aren’t dying from >> >> taking the vaccine”. >> >> >> >> I've never heard such an argument. >> >> >> >> >> >> 1. Vaccines are a risk/reward type of >> >> medical treatment. Every medicine you >> >> take has some level of side effect. >> >> The vast majority of medicines have >> >> such negligible side effects, that >> >> they are considered completely safe. >> >> The FDA approval process exists to >> >> ensure we understand the potential of >> >> serious side effects and drug >> >> interaction issues. If you are 30 >> >> years old and folks are saying you >> >> have to take this experimental drug to >> >> prevent this incredibly small chance >> >> of you becoming seriously ill or >> >> dying, it seems like an intelligent >> >> thing to say “I am not sure the risk >> >> of getting seriously ill or dying from >> >> this disease outweighs the risk of >> >> using an experimental drug”. It used >> >> to be that people relied upon a >> >> conversation with their doctor to >> >> determine personal risk of disease and >> >> use of a drug. Apparently we no longer >> >> do that. We publicly shame people >> >> into using experimental drugs. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 1. Since it is not FDA approved, we don’t >> >> have a full understanding of drug >> >> interactions with other medicines >> >> folks need to take. >> >> >> >> It isn't some weird new chemical we just >> >> invented this year. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 1. We likely understand the very common >> >> medicines, but, certainly not all. >> We have FDA approval processes for >> >> good reason. If for example, you >> >> were under 40 and were taking seizure >> >> control medication, it would be very >> >> fair to hold off on an experimental >> >> drug until it is fully understood if >> >> the vaccine might lessen the >> >> effectiveness of the seizure control >> >> medication. An incredibly low risk >> >> of serious illness or death from the >> >> virus could turn into a good chance of >> >> serious injury from seizure. As far >> >> as I know data like that is certainly >> >> not available yet. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 1. Why do vaccinated people feel the need >> >> to belittle those that have decided >> >> not to get vaccinated by an >> >> experimental drug? >> >> >> >> I don't know the answer to that. I'm not >> >> comfortable with that behavior either. It >> >> goes both ways though. Plenty of memes out >> >> there accusing people of being dumb sheep for >> >> taking the vaccine. >> >> >> >> -- AF mailing list >> >> AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> >> >> >> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> >> >> >> >> >> -- >> >> -- AF mailing list >> >> AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> >> >> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> -- AF mailing list >> >> AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> >> >> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> -- - Forrest >> >> -- AF mailing list >> >> AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> >> >> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> >> >> >> >> >> >> > >> > -- >> > *Jay Weekley* >> > *Cyber Broadband >> > * >> > >> > -- >> > This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. >> > https://www.avg.com >> > >> > >> > -- >> > AF mailing list >> > AF@af.afmug.com >> > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> -- >> AF mailing list >> AF@af.afmug.com >> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> > -- > AF mailing list > AF@af.afmug.com > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >
-- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
