On Sat, Dec 8, 2012 at 5:23 AM, Mike Tintner <[email protected]> wrote: > Matt, > > Obviously if you are going to make calculations here, you will need to be > able to explain how long it will take us to produce the first "living > mechantcial/artificial system" - from a cell to a robot, that can > independently navigate and live in the real world, without human assistance.
Nanotechnology seems harder to forecast than computing technology, but in the field of computational biology, it seems to be progressing faster than Moore's Law for now. It is further behind than silicon, but I think it has more potential. A human brain sized neural network would have to be simulated on a 10 petaflop computer, which fills a large room and uses 10 megawatts of electricity. The human brain uses 20 watts in 10^-6 as much space. Molecular computing, in terms of operations on DNA, RNA, and proteins, is another 100 times as energy efficient. A DNA molecule stores 2 bits in 10^-21 g, which is 10^9 times as dense as memory stored in synapses. > What are the obstacles involved - for example, consciousness, sentience, > integrated body, emotional system, self ...? No, these are irrelevant. You see your friends go in for a procedure and come out younger, stronger, smarter, and happier. You have no way to know if they are "conscious" or just pretending to feel emotions. > How many obstacles to > understanding and creating these are there? How many parts of a human or > even a worm body do we still not understand that are essential for > independent survival? How many parts of a neuronal system do we still not > understand? Thousands, a million,...? 2.5 x 10^7 bits using the evolutionary model of human complexity. It is equivalent to about 1 million lines of code. No, we aren't there yet. > Please explain how and when we will solve these mysteries - how many there > are - and produce budgets. That is the point of the paper. When is not before 2030. How is by spending $1 quadrillion. -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
