To bring this discussion to a bit more generic level, it has been
determined, if my recollection of my reading is correct, that existing fiber
has a theoretical bandwidth of 2.5 terabits. All that matters is the
equipment attached at the endpoints.
I am not familiar with what is happening at the telco level. I am seeing
products being offered to customers, in which the customer premise equipment
is the JDS Uniphase 1280, which on the one side connects into the carrier
fiber network, and on the other hands off standard gigabit LX or SX
connection to customer routers or switches. I am guessing that the
connection to the carrier side is into one of the DWDM switches that Robert
is talking about.
the big negative I see continues to be "the last mile" which stubbornly
remains twisted pair.
that is a topic for another time.
Chuck
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of
Robert Hanley
Sent: Saturday, September 15, 2001 1:16 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: RANT Longish, Why Cisco and not ...!!! [7:19933]
Please don't take this the wrong way, I don't mean to
come off as being snotty, but you kind of make my
point for me. The fact that you haven't seen it yet
doesn't mean a market shift is not happening. Cisco is
not going to tell you about all the DWDM deals at
their major clients going to Nortel and I probably
shouldn't. I am a Nortel SE BTW, but I am also a long
time Cisco stockholder, since 1995.
It is going to take awhile before the turnover becomes
obvious to everyone, there are still many smaller
cities and premises in larger cities that are not
served by optical fiber. When I speak of T1 access I'm
using it in a more general sense, and to say "we're
doing DS-3" and even OC-3 like I said kind of makes
the point.
I'm talking about Gig-E between major corporate
locations over DWDM right into the campus core (L3 btw
no distribution layer needed), effectively extending
the LAN and flattening the MAN. Multiples of Gig-E are
common and soon 10Gig-E will be available. SANs are
also being run over the same DWDM rings, on different
lambdas. The entire Chrysler building in New York has
been wired with Nortel DWDM to the floors!
Cisco has already admitted that they've missed the
optical boat, spin or no spin. I've been told this
personally by a Cisco manager (we were out drinking
one night). The ONS 15454 is the only success story
they have, and it primarily sold to CLECs who were
being built on Cisco vendor financing but it is an
OC-48 box. Still useful in certain applications
though. Many of those CLECs are no longer in business,
others are hanging on by a thread. Most of the rest of
the Optical products cisco can offer are OEM'd. Much
of their optical R&D (such as Monterey) has been
shuttered.
Cisco will continue to be a major player in the
networking business, and will be profitable again,
probably sooner than later after this week. I do think
though that their momentum has been halted after the
industry changes of this last year.
Rather than going end to end with one vendor most
carriers will now use a combination of devices from
many vendors as appropriate. You will see some
applications where Cisco sells into these markets, but
they will be spun by Cisco into major strategic wins;
which they are usually not.
Meanwhile in the past year or so, even many of Cisco's
best and largest enterprise customers have installed
Nortel optical DWDM rings. Nortel has become the
world's largest telecommunications vendor, surpassing
Lucent; and picking up most of their business. The
RBOCs hold the upper hand in the telecommunications
game, and they look at Cisco as the arms merchant who
sold to their now largely vanquished competitors.
Cisco's recent re-org was effectively a complete
retrenchment back into the enterprise space and out of
the carrier world. From there they wil not be nearly
as able to influence the direction of those markets in
the future.
If you're really interested I'd recommend a little
"Light Reading"
Cisco Re-org
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=7645
MPLS & IP-Everywhere
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=7805
Nortel first to demo 10-Gig E (into a switch, not a
router)
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=8030
Recent Nortel Wins & Announcements
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=7988
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=7917
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=7821
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=7812
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=7352
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=7280
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=7167
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=7110
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=6986
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=6895
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=6578
I hope this continues to be a productive thread where
we can all exchange ideas which will ultimately benfit
us all. Sorry if I was initially a little harsh.
--- Circusnuts wrote:
> Guys- I read your post yesterday & thought about a
> little overnight... I
> don't have a clue where you're coming from.
> Undoubtedly- Cisco is proud of
> their LFH60/ Serial interfaces (but the need still
> exists) & when I hear
> someone referring a T-1 access, I giggle picturing
> stoking a fire with
> dollar bills. Having said this, I work in one of
> the largest Enterprise
> networks in the world. We have OC- everything, a
> lot of Frame, DLSW
> projects up the wazoo (replacing mainframe X.25) & @
> last count just over
> 12,000 Cisco routers & switches. I work in the
> engineering department & we
> deal with some pretty OK stuff. I've also worked @
> a CLEC for a year & feel
> very comfortable with how that world lives (on their
> butts with a cup of
> coffee :o) I have been ordering DS-3's these past 2
> weeks & know that a lot
> hasn't changed since I left the CLEC business. I
> say all this to qualify
> that I don't live & work in a vacuum.
>
> The topics you have mentioned are very valid & if
> you have an opportunity to
> look @ the past Networkers presentations, you'll get
> Cisco's spin on the
> future. I think what you brought up does represent
> what we are seeing (yes
> managed survice is getting better & available in
> more areas). What you are
> supposing though- is that Telco's are going to
> modernize sooner than say a
> Cisco can react, assuming they have no view into the
> future. We have H.323
> because it's what we have to work with. We have
> MPLS because ATM circuits
> are what we have to work with. We have VPN's
> because the wide open Internet
> is all some companies can afford & Frame is very
> slow in the Southwestern
> areas (TouchAmerica POP's). We have NAT because of
> IPV4, & we have fiber
> going into housing developments because they were
> built where facilities do
> not exist (it's called PairGain & it's only good for
> phones & 144 IDSL
> services)
>
> Again- you've made valid points, I just don't think
> it's going to come upon
> us like a thief in the night.
>
> Phil
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Patrick Ramsey"
> To:
> Sent: Friday, September 14, 2001 6:32 PM
> Subject: Re: RANT Longish, Why Cisco and not ...!!!
> [7:19933]
>
>
> > preach on brother!
> >
> > I would have to agree with everything you said.
> Like I have posted
> before,
> > we were an extreme shop before we went cisco.
> (political BS) I have never
> > loved a piece of gear so much than the purple
> packet pushers we had in
> > house! :)
> >
> > Telcos are already running fiber into subdivisions
> and aprtmnt complexes.
> > More and more sonet services are being deployed.
> And with WDM advancing
> > like it has, serial connectivity will be a thing
> of the past!
> >
> > -Patrick
> >
> > >>> "Robert Hanley" 09/14/01 06:10PM >>>
> > What a load of cisco bigotry crap! Thank god for
> you
> > guys who know better, huh? Even the folks at cisco
> > call this nonsense "drinking the kool-aid" for
> gods
> > sake. At least they don't believe their own
> marketing
> > BS. Normally I wouldn't even reply to such a post,
> but
> > Ive got some residual anger to vent.
> >
> >
> > Do yourselves a favor and wake up to the fact that
> > there are lots of companies out there who make
> gear
> > thats just as good if not better in many cases
> than
> > cisco's. What are you going to do when all your
> old T1
> > circuits are replaced by optical networks? Have
> you
> > honestly looked at the market share cisco has in
> > optical networking? Do you understand the products
> > offered by the different vendors?
> >
> >
> > I've got news for you folks, the skills you are
> all
> > trying so hard to master are already yesterdays
> news!
> >
> >
> > There is a whole new wave of networking
> technologies
> > being deployed right under your noses that will
> > totally change the way companies run their
> networking
> > departments. Most enterprises in the future will
> > outsource their MANs and WANs to managed service
> > providers (running Nortel gear in many
> cases...horror
> > of horrors) who will hand off an ethernet link at
> the
> > customer premises. This will go into an L2/L3
> switch,
> > not "a router" as such (running EIGRP of course,
> so no
> > other vendor's gear can be used). This will
> provider
> > higher speed links at lower costs while flattening
> the
> > MAN/WAN and eliminating a whole layer of storing
> and
> > forwarding (read: L3 software based router).
> >
> >
> > The L2/L3 LAN switching market has become so
> > commoditized that the profit margins are slim to
> > non-existent. The Catalyst switches are based on
> dated
> > technology, and cannot deliver wire speed
> throughput
> > while doing anything more than straight L2 (hence
> the
> > "3-layer heirarchical model" a marketing exercise,
> NOT
> > an engineering one, the whole point of switching
> was
> > to flatten networks). Cisco will have to buy an
> > established vendor (probably Extreme) in order to
> > compete, since they've written down all the R&D
> they
> > were doing along with their fledgling (CLEC)
> carrier
> > business.
> >
> >
> > That is why companies like Nortel are not even
> trying
> > to compete in the conventional router market.
> Their
> > R&D resources have all gone into next generation
> > equipment that surpasses anything that cisco can
> do.
> > Nortel's enterprise clients are buying
> Multiservice
> > WAN switches, Sonet, and DWDM; NOT ROUTERS! Hint
> hint
> > nudge nudge wink wink! Get it ?
> >
> >
> > --- David Toalson wrote:
> > > I work at a subsidiary of a large healthcare
> > > company. My office is 100%
> > > Cisco for Routers and Switches. We have a total
> of
> > > 30 routers and 8
> > > switches. I work with 30 remote sites, a main
> > > office and separate Data
> > > Center. I have attached a show version from one
> of
> > > our two 7505 core
> > > routers. As you can see it has been up for over
> 4
> > > years without any
> > > problems. Our second has been up almost 2
> years.
> > > My parent company is a
> > > "Nortel" shop. They have to re-boot their core
> > > router about every 45-60
> > > days or more offten and many of their switches
> on a
> > > regular basis. Granted,
>
=== message truncated ===
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