> I wouldn’t be so pessimistic about macOS or even iOS update rates.

According to StatCounter Mojave never went above 52% or market share, which
means at its peak 48% of users were still on previous versions.

https://gs.statcounter.com/macos-version-market-share/desktop/worldwide

I think it will be worse for Catalina. It's anecdotal, but every Mac user I
know will remain in Mojave or even previous macOS versions for the
foreseeable future. Also, every audio software developer I know has been
sending emails to its users to not update to Catalina. Audio forums are
full of people not being able to use their hardware with Catalina because
of some driver problem or something else.

> Cocoa being deprecated: I think you have some time.

Probably, but my point is actually about not being able to plan for the
future. Nobody can say for certain if or when Cocoa will be deprecated, in
consequence investing a year or two of dev time in a new Cocoa project
seems very risky.

OTOH investing in a SwiftUI project for macOS is also a bad idea right now
unless one is ready to be an early adopter.

On Thu, Nov 14, 2019 at 1:52 PM Rob Petrovec <petr...@mac.com> wrote:

> I wouldn’t be so pessimistic about macOS or even iOS update rates.  Its
> considerably quicker than you think.  IMS, they announce upgrade rates
> during public earnings report conference calls typically to brag about how
> well a new OS is being received by the public over previous releases or
> competing OSs.
>
> re Cocoa being deprecated: I think you have some time.  A lot of
> apps/components in the OS are written in Obj-C and it is a big undertaking
> to convert them all.  Not something that can feasibly be done in a year or
> two.  Remember how long it took Finder to switch from Carbon to Cocoa?  And
> even then it was half Carbon & half Cocoa.  It took a couple releases for
> it be all Cocoa.  Not to mention Carbon was officially deprecated in 10.8
> (back in 2012) and is only now dead in 10.15 (2019).  So I think Cocoa
> still has a good number of years of life left before it is deprecated and
> even more years before it is dead.
>
> —Rob
>
>
> > On Nov 14, 2019, at 12:30 PM, Pier Bover via Cocoa-dev <
> cocoa-dev@lists.apple.com> wrote:
> >
> >> Well I think the point is to go SwiftUI
> >
> > What if you want to support previous macOS versions older than Catalina?
> >
> > I doubt the majority of users will update to Catalina for at least 1-2
> > years.
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