> Either way, the chart you linked to kind of proves my point though.  It
shows that the majority of users are using the latest released OS after
less than a year.

52% (in the case of peak Mojave adoption) is a very slight majority unlike
in iOS where usually 80-90% of users are on the latest versions.

MacOS has already a small market share in the PC world and developing a
product for half of that minority (in the best case) is not really a
logical business decision. Developing with SwiftUI might make sense for iOS
or even Catalyst projects but not for a macOS exclusive product. At least
for the next couple of years.

On Thu, Nov 14, 2019 at 3:08 PM Rob Petrovec <[email protected]> wrote:

>
>
> On Nov 14, 2019, at 1:13 PM, Pier Bover <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > I wouldn’t be so pessimistic about macOS or even iOS update rates.
>
> According to StatCounter Mojave never went above 52% or market share,
> which means at its peak 48% of users were still on previous versions.
>
> https://gs.statcounter.com/macos-version-market-share/desktop/worldwide
>
> I think it will be worse for Catalina. It's anecdotal, but every Mac user
> I know will remain in Mojave or even previous macOS versions for the
> foreseeable future. Also, every audio software developer I know has been
> sending emails to its users to not update to Catalina. Audio forums are
> full of people not being able to use their hardware with Catalina because
> of some driver problem or something else.
>
> Market Share is not necessarily the same as upgrade rates.  Either way,
> the chart you linked to kind of proves my point though.  It shows that the
> majority of users are using the latest released OS after less than a year.
> And at least 25% have adopted Catalina in two months (assuming Catalina is
> listed under “Other”).  Thats pretty quick, IMO.
>
> —Rob
>
>
> On Thu, Nov 14, 2019 at 1:52 PM Rob Petrovec <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> I wouldn’t be so pessimistic about macOS or even iOS update rates.  Its
>> considerably quicker than you think.  IMS, they announce upgrade rates
>> during public earnings report conference calls typically to brag about how
>> well a new OS is being received by the public over previous releases or
>> competing OSs.
>>
>> re Cocoa being deprecated: I think you have some time.  A lot of
>> apps/components in the OS are written in Obj-C and it is a big undertaking
>> to convert them all.  Not something that can feasibly be done in a year or
>> two.  Remember how long it took Finder to switch from Carbon to Cocoa?  And
>> even then it was half Carbon & half Cocoa.  It took a couple releases for
>> it be all Cocoa.  Not to mention Carbon was officially deprecated in 10.8
>> (back in 2012) and is only now dead in 10.15 (2019).  So I think Cocoa
>> still has a good number of years of life left before it is deprecated and
>> even more years before it is dead.
>>
>> —Rob
>>
>>
>> > On Nov 14, 2019, at 12:30 PM, Pier Bover via Cocoa-dev <
>> [email protected]> wrote:
>> >
>> >> Well I think the point is to go SwiftUI
>> >
>> > What if you want to support previous macOS versions older than Catalina?
>> >
>> > I doubt the majority of users will update to Catalina for at least 1-2
>> > years.
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