-Caveat Lector-

Euphorian spotted this on the Guardian Unlimited Observer site and thought you should 
see it.

To see this story with its related links on the Guardian Unlimited Observer site, go 
to http://www.observer.co.uk

Global crash fears as German bank sinks
Faisal Islam, economics correspondent and Will Hutton
Saturday October 05 2002
The Guardian


Stockbrokers around the world are braced for a potentially calamitous week as alarm 
mounts over a looming, Thirties-style global financial crisis. A leaked email about 
the credit-worthiness of Commerzbank, Germany's third largest bank, yesterday 
increased fears of the international stock market malaise exploding into a 
fully-fledged banking crisis.

Commerzbank lost a quarter of its value last week, raising the spectre of 
Credit-anstalt, the Austrian bank that collapsed in 1931, sparking global depression.

US stock markets have fallen for six consecutive weeks, to their lowest levels in five 
years. European markets have collapsed even further, wiping out nearly half of the 
value of European corpora tions in this year alone. Japan is struggling to put 
together a plan to save its banking system, riddled with bad debt after a decade of 
recession and falling prices. Now the German economy threatens to follow.

'There are strong parallels to the Thirties after an unsustainable "new era" boom,' 
says Avinash Persaud managing director for economics and research at State Street 
Bank. 'Then, the stock market decline was not just steep, it was long, taking three 
years to reach the bottom.'

'Commerzbank being affected is a sign of the severity. But in today's crisis risks 
have been offloaded from the banks to the markets and ultimately our pensioners, which 
makes the problem more difficult to deal with,' he says. The leaked email about 
Commerzbank was in response to an inquiry from a US investment bank about rumours of 
huge losses on credit derivatives, which aim to spread risk.

Figures due to be published on Friday will show that a toll of stock market falls, 
rising joblessness and war fears is finally denting the spending habits of Americans. 
Economists fear that the result may be a 'double-dip' US recession, taking much of the 
world with it.

Europe's finance Ministers, including Chancellor Gordon Brown, will meet in Luxembourg 
on Tuesday amid deepening concern about the stability of the financial system. 
Tomorrow evening, the Eurogroup of finance ministers, excluding Brown, will discuss 
reforming Europe-wide tax and spending rules along the lines of the British system, 
taking stronger account of economic difficulties.

In the US, the concern is that Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has 
insufficient room to cut interest rates if the economy falls into recession. 'The 
[Bush] Administration has two lines of action: tax relief for the rich [and] 
reliance on the Federal Reserve. Both are without effect,' says US economist JK 
Galbraith in an interview with The Observer.

Copyright Guardian Newspapers Limited

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