Hi All,
Ed may be right--it's hard to say. It also depends on what the definition
of "disappear" is, meaning I think there will always be some adventurous
souls using CW regardless of where technology takes us. By rights, I would
have thought "AM" would disappear, but it hasn't--not totally. There is
even a feeding frenzy out there for old AM gear.
But CW is a conundrum. It takes skill! That is what seems to be
disappearing from ham radio! Look at the decline in the ability of the
average ham to build his/her own gear, let alone repair it! Admittedly, the
radios we buy these days don't lend themselves to DIY repair, mainly due to
the advanced technology of things like SMD's, etc. These days, if you have
a problem, it usually means swapping out an entire board rather than
replacing a single part.
But back to CW--This is the most basic (I think) form of RF communication.
By that I mean it is the simplest form to create. You actually only need
two wires you can touch together to send it, but a paddle or key obviously
makes it much easier. It's more efficient that just about any type of voice
communication, so with just a few watts (or less) you can work the world!
The digital modes you mention are also very efficient, but I find them
ultimately boring! The computer has made everything so mechanical! JT65 is
a really slick creation, but you end up just playing a "numbers game" for
exchanges. It's gratifying for a while, but there is not much conversation
going back and forth. At least modes like PSK31 are conversational, and
maybe other modes, yet to be invented, will be that way too. It's hard to
say what we will see in the next 20 or 30 years. Technology moves at
lightening speed!
For that matter, RTTY would seem to be "old hat" as well, but it still seems
to be hanging around in strength. The computer gave RTTY a "reprieve",
since we no longer have to rely on units like the old Model 26's, or
whatever those things were that we used years ago. I can even operate RTTY
and PSK31 with my KX3, all by itself, but using CW as the input method!
Again, the simplest form of input (CW) to generate an advanced mode.
A while back some Japanese company was seriously contemplating using CW as
an input method for texting on cellphones! It would only require two or
three keys! Interesting concept, but I guess it didn't fly--at least not
now. I still think there is just possibly some merit to this however. Kids
can learn anything!!!! They text! It's the "old f**ts" that have problems.
The absence of a mandatory level of CW proficiency has clearly reduced the
level of CW activity--except in contests!!!!! Interestingly, though, now
that CW is no longer mandatory, a lot of newer hams (and some old ones too)
seem to be having some sort of epiphany about the virtues of CW, and are
voluntarily taking it up. Very interesting!!!
The bottom line is that technology is apt to change everything! It might
even substantially wipe away ham radio all together! It certainly has
distracted newcomers who now seem to be nearly totally focused on computers.
I have some serious concerns about the survival of ham radio itself, but for
now, I think the biggest threat is CC & R's! Hi.
Dave W7AQK
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