It has been noted that 83.295% of people make up their own statistics.
Thus encouraged ...
The 2018 ARRL Annual Report says that 2018 ended with 156,899 members,
and the somewhat-difficult-to-read little graph indicates that it fell
for 11 of the 12 months. 2017 began at about 163,000 and fell to about
159,500 again in 11 of the 12 months [graph isn't well quantified]. It
has been falling for a long time, and 170,000 is not an all-time high.
More significant is the fraction of total licensees who are ARRL members
[similar to market share for a business], a number that has been
steadily dropping for some time and is somewhere in the mid-teens
today. It is heavily weighted toward older Extra class hams. ARRL took
a huge membership hit in the later 60's when its Incentive Licensing
proposal was adopted by the FCC and General class licensee's lost big
chunks of their spectrum. It's been pretty much downhill ever since.
The absolute number of US licensed amateurs has trended upward over the
years, but the fraction of the US population who are hams bounces around
0.2% - 0.3% [it's about 0.23% right now]. I've been "in" Dayton during
Hamvention several times, sadly at WPAFB working and not at Hara or
Xenia, so I can't speak to attendance, but in principle, as the
population rises, the absolute number of hams rises, and it's reasonable
to expect attendance at large famous events to rise also.
Wayne began this thread for very good reasons. The vast majority of new
hams are Technicians, most of them will remain Technicians, many will
disappear, not many will ever operate an HF transceiver or dabble in EME
or construction or satellites, not a lot know much about our National
Organization, and fewer will find reason to join. There is a very
pronounced divide and finding ways to bridge it seems like a worthwhile
endeavor. Might also sell a few more Elecraft radios. [:=))
73,
Fred ["Skip"] K6DGW
Sparks NV DM09dn
Washoe County
On 12/23/2019 10:21 AM, KENT TRIMBLE wrote:
Brethren . . .
Keep in mind that while the hair gets grayer, attendance at Dayton was
at an all-time second high last May.
According to the FCC, the number of American licensees is at an
all-time high.
ARRL reports membership over 170,000, also an all-time high.
When those three figures start falling it will be time for pessimism.
Until then, let's talk positive, act positive, and be positive.
73,
Kent K9ZTV
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