Very well put Chris. I hope we don't beat this to death as it is
somewhat OT.
I'll go out on a limb - you will not see full blown use of self driving
vehicles any time soon.
10 years maybe, probably more like 25. You heard it here, LOL
Al
Lee's quite right of course. Everyone is speculating on what this is
now, what it will evolve into, and generally thinking in broad strokes.
But it's the details that will bite hard. Simple sense-and-response
control would be just begging for a tragic outcome. And there is no AI
system sufficiently advanced to make the right decision in every case.
There will be wrong responses, some tragic. Also, if you cede too much
control to "the system" that means you have little control when some
glitch becomes a seriously FUBAR situation. Making this work really well
would require a massive software validation effort that few companies
will do properly. (They frequently have a hard time implementing CANBUS
properly.) This is all a perfect example of the "four wheel drive"
analogy - four wheel drive can allow you to do things that are otherwise
impossible. But if it is implemented or used improperly, it will only
get you deeper into trouble than you might otherwise have been in.
Sadly, there will be lawyers that specialize in these cases, and they
will make lots of money. There's a far stronger case to be made for
using tech in ways where we know it works - sensing what is difficult
for humans to perceive, and rapid response. I would welcome an infra-red
HUD that would allow me to see in the dark or through fog, dust and
blizzards. Or an audible warning that closure rate to the vehicle ahead
is too fast. Maybe even automatic braking in that case, but I'd have to
try it first. An audible warning that you're about to collide with
someone in your blind spot would be good, but a steering correction
would NOT be OK. Like if I'm purposely changing lanes into someone
because that collision is the lesser of two evils. That's a decision I
want to make myself. I'm all for enhancements. But the decisions are
mine. AI is simply not up to the task yet. The real test is not when
you can show what amazing things a self driving car can do - it's when
you throw situations at it trying to make it do the wrong thing and you
can't. No one wants to show those test yet, but those are the ones that
matter. Chris -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment
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