On Tue, Jul 2, 2024 at 6:37 PM Jason Resch <jasonre...@gmail.com> wrote:
*> Some assumed we would have to upload a brain to reverse engineer its > mechanisms, but it now seems the techniques of machine learning will > reproduce these algorithms well before we apply the resources necessary to > scan a human brain at a synaptic resolution.* > I agree. *> The human brain's computational capacity is estimated to be around the > exaop range ( (assuming ~10^15 synapses firing at an upper bound of 1000 > times per second). So I agree with your point we have the computation > necessary,* > On average a neuron in the brain fires closer to once a second than 1000 times a second. And I actually think Kurzweil's estimate is conservative because he did not take into consideration the fact that neurons are far less reliable than transistors, if just one neuron misfire could destroy an entire train of thought then intelligent action would be impossible, so the brain runs many identical calculations in order to drown out the noise caused by the misfire. An electronic brain would not need to do that, or at least not need to do it as much. Ralph Merkel has a design for a purely mechanical nanocomputer such that you could fit 8*10^19 logic gates into the same volume as the human brain, each one flipping about a billion times a second. Something like that could easily emulate every human being on the planet. Mechanical Computing Systems Using Only Links and Rotary Joints <https://arxiv.org/pdf/1801.03534> > *> There is depth of thinking, speed of thinking, and breath of knowledge. > I think current language models are on the precipice (if not past it) of > super intelligence on terms of speed and breadth of knowledge. But it seems > to me that AI is still behind humans in terms of depth of thinking (e.g. > how deeply they can go in terms of following a sequence of logical > inferences).* > I think computers have been able to pass the Turing Test for about the last 18 months, but Ray Kurzweil says that won't happen until 2029, although he wouldn't be very surprised if it happened a year or two earlier. When I look into the details of what he means by "passing the Turing Test" it's that by 2029 a computer will be much better than even the best human being at EVERYTHING. To Kurzweil, AI and even Artificial General Intelligence is old hat, he's talking about Artificial Superintelligence. John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis> sia -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3sHdDHRKLqPT%2Ba2Og7BSRYo%2BU_8YWq4RNRHbAKzVqLBA%40mail.gmail.com.
