This post by Brad DeLong<http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/06/collapse-of-the-chicago-school-gary-becker-edition.html> talks about business investment, when it collapsed (before Obama took office), and how it's done since then, which is quite well. That's not consistent with the uncertainty story most Republican politicians are trying to sell.
I'm not clear about what you (Eric) are getting at in your post. You start out by saying that the uncertainty arguments have merit, but then you seem to go on to say that spending when uncertainty is low is a bubble. So what are you saying? For the most part people are not spending money because they are too much in debt or don't have jobs. That's not a matter of what Republicans are referring to as uncertainty. With respect to uncertainty due to new regulations, I'll believe it when you can show me all the new regulations that have been put in place in the past 2 years. (Very few!) With respect to uncertainty in the job market, that certainly is the case. How can that be reduced? A good way is for the government to take on the responsibility of providing jobs when the private sector can't. But the people complaining about uncertainty are not likely to allow that any time soon. One of the functions of government is to help smooth out the uncertainty of the business cycle. The people complaining about uncertainty want to eliminate that function--thereby increasing uncertainty. And speaking of uncertainty, all this demagoguery about the debt limit isn't helping to reduce uncertainty, but it's the people complaining about uncertainty that are the primary debt-limit demagogues. In my mind, the only thing certain about the discussion of uncertainty is that it's almost all political and has virtually nothing to do with economics. *-- Russ Abbott* *_____________________________________________* *** Professor, Computer Science* * California State University, Los Angeles* * Google voice: 747-*999-5105 * blog: *http://russabbott.blogspot.com/ vita: http://sites.google.com/site/russabbott/ *_____________________________________________* On Mon, Jun 20, 2011 at 1:55 PM, Owen Densmore <o...@backspaces.net> wrote: > Great pointer to Clinton's points. > > In terms of uncertainty, I think there are two different kinds being > discussed. > - The republicans discuss certainty in regulations and new laws. > - Tom discusses certainty of the job market and downturn direction. > > -- Owen > > > On Mon, Jun 20, 2011 at 11:39 AM, Russ Abbott <russ.abb...@gmail.com> > wrote: > > I'm, pretty skeptical about the uncertainty argument. That seems to me to > be > > a Republican ploy to argue for lower taxes, which in their view is the > > solution no matter what the problem is. For the most part companies > aren't > > hiring or adding new production capacity because there isn't the demand > to > > justify it. > > > > But there are some things that can be done. Here are some very ideas that > > Bill Clinton is suggesting. We miss him as president. > > > > -- Russ Abbott > > _____________________________________________ > > Professor, Computer Science > > California State University, Los Angeles > > > > Google voice: 747-999-5105 > > blog: http://russabbott.blogspot.com/ > > vita: http://sites.google.com/site/russabbott/ > > _____________________________________________ > > > > > > > > On Mon, Jun 20, 2011 at 9:08 AM, Owen Densmore <o...@backspaces.net> > wrote: > >> > >> Tom Friedman's Op Ed > >> > >> > http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/12/opinion/12friedman.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss > >> > >> He starts with shocking mortgage statistics, but then discusses > >> unemployment and its causes via this report: > >> http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/us_jobs/index.asp > >> > >> Quote: McKinsey Global Institute released a long study of the > >> structural issues ailing the U.S. job market, entitled: “An Economy > >> That Works: Job Creation and America’s Future.” It begins: “Only in > >> the most optimistic scenario will the United States return to full > >> employment before 2020. Achieving this outcome will require sustained > >> demand growth, rising U.S. competitiveness in the global economy and > >> better matching of U.S. workers to jobs.” > >> > >> Interestingly enough, they still feel education is important but > >> stress areas of current need. > >> > >> BTW: The tech bubble folks are afraid of is likely NOT to be one. Marc > >> Andreessen (admittedly a techie) has compiled P/E ratios of the new > >> tech market and shows them to be well under traditional values. They'd > >> please any conservative investor. > >> > >> Tom is concerned about the Uncertainty Tax .. our loss of production > >> due to fear of downturn unknowns, but ends: Any good news? Yes, U.S. > >> corporations are getting so productive and sitting on so much cash, > >> just a few big, smart, bipartisan decisions by Congress on taxes and > >> spending (and mortgages) and I think this whole economy starts to > >> improve again. Workers with skills will be the first to be hired. > >> > >> -- Owen > >> > >> ============================================================ > >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > >> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > >
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