I know we all have our respective lenses through which we view the world and that these lenses determine the explanations to which we are most receptive, but if Mr. Friedman is talking about an inability to switch house as a reason some people aren't able to take new jobs, it would seem appropriate to also mention that many of the houses built during the last bubble were at the outer accretion layers of suburbia and not particularly close to any jobs. Its as if the people building these houses and the politicians maintaining policies that support their build assumed either (1.) oil will always be cheap and people wont mind spending 2 hours a day in their cars every working day or (2.) these houses wont ultimately be paid for by wages. One aggravating factor of the bust a few years ago which never gets as much mention as obscure financial instruments or banking malfeasance relates the spike in oil prices in 2007 to the initial wave of defaults in these outer suburbs. Granted, the people moving into these marginal outer layers were probably the most marginal credit risks, but its conceivable that any change for the worse could be all the more likely to put them over the edge and into default.
I guess my bias is that I attribute too much to resource and energy scarcity. When I see an explanation for either the start of our current troubles or why we can't see an end, I expect it to ultimately reference these things. Although there are a few brief mentions of energy efficiency as it relates to productivity gains and as a possible source for new jobs in construction, this is pretty paltry when you consider how world energy production has basically flatlined, but there are many, many more consumers driving up its price (think of all the new cars sold in China each day). When I think of the U.S., I think we're almost uniquely disadvantaged by how spread out our cities have become in the last 60 years and how the only option for getting around that has been faithfully and consistently supported and encouraged is the personal car. On 20 Jun 2011, at 17:08, Owen Densmore wrote: > Tom Friedman's Op Ed > http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/12/opinion/12friedman.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss > > He starts with shocking mortgage statistics, but then discusses > unemployment and its causes via this report: > http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/us_jobs/index.asp > > Quote: McKinsey Global Institute released a long study of the > structural issues ailing the U.S. job market, entitled: “An Economy > That Works: Job Creation and America’s Future.” It begins: “Only in > the most optimistic scenario will the United States return to full > employment before 2020. Achieving this outcome will require sustained > demand growth, rising U.S. competitiveness in the global economy and > better matching of U.S. workers to jobs.” > > Interestingly enough, they still feel education is important but > stress areas of current need. > > BTW: The tech bubble folks are afraid of is likely NOT to be one. Marc > Andreessen (admittedly a techie) has compiled P/E ratios of the new > tech market and shows them to be well under traditional values. They'd > please any conservative investor. > > Tom is concerned about the Uncertainty Tax .. our loss of production > due to fear of downturn unknowns, but ends: Any good news? Yes, U.S. > corporations are getting so productive and sitting on so much cash, > just a few big, smart, bipartisan decisions by Congress on taxes and > spending (and mortgages) and I think this whole economy starts to > improve again. Workers with skills will be the first to be hired. > > -- Owen > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
