Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

[Steve Smith]

Gil - I think it takes a certain perspective and maybe training to be a proper "Skeptic". I think as far as the Saros thing goes, I can imagine it having an effect on annual weather patterns with periods relevant to the periods of the sun/moon/earth alignments but those are on the scale of years and decades.  Climate change is on the scale of decades and centuries and millenia.   Saros-effect weather/climate should be detectible in the historical record... I don't think most of the current artifacts of climate change fit that pattern.  But I could be wrong, I don't study it closely. I  *am* skeptical of many of the details of anthropogenic climate change (pro and con), but around 2000 I used *another* rule of thumb that governs my every day life.  If the stakes are high enough, err on the "safe" side and establish "failsafes" wherever possible.   When walking along a narrow ridge with sheer drops on both sides, I am *very* careful and try always to have a contingency plan such that if I trip, I fall in a stable configuration on top of the ridge.   Climate deniers, in my opinion, are not only ignoring the precipice nearby but all but trying to shove others (third world, poverty, etc.) over that edge because in their mind, *they* can use their wealth/privilege to avoid the worst of the consequences.   *they* (we) are walking the highwire with a net while 90% of the world does not have that net. - Steve @Steve yeah I don't know that a person can stay sane and constantly question what they do. The maxim can probably be taken many different ways. Personally I take it in a playfull, happy-go-lucky kind of way of  Kind of like OOH I wonder how (Coffe for example) works? OOOH it's black and with a pinch of suger tastey, And OOOh that's how it works.  As to the Saros system, I mentioned because supposedly at one time it was thought it might be one piece of why the weather and climate do what they do.  From what I gather the idea is then that if this system somehow leads to weather and climate patterns it'd be why the weather and climate are generally cold or warm Just tossing it out there for Nicks forum as it was one of  the Bazzilian ways to (possibly) explain why the weather and climate might be doing what ever it is they do. On Wed, Sep 23, 2015 at 8:27 AM, Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: Gil- The Saros cycles are fascinating.  Of course I always "assumed" there was such periodicity and wondered if anyone had tried to correlate these conjunctions with earthly phenomena.  I don't see this undermining the anthropogenic climate change hypothesis, only perhaps a few of the attributable "evidence" for it. I don't think of scientists as "questioning everything" or at least not "everything all of the time" or at least not on an individual by individual basis.   Science is perhaps the earliest form of "crowd sourcing".   The early scientific organizations like the Royal Society founded in 1660 and the complex web of correspondence (mostly) throughout Europe during the age of enlightenment.  Their motto is "Nullius in verba" (take nobody's word for it).   The cycle of hypothesis generation and testing has several phases of "question everything".   To get to a new and interesting hypothesis, one must ignore/forget/confront much of current established knowledge...   then once a fairly firm hypothesis is formed, one must deliberately look for counter-examples to undermine one's own hypothesis to avoid confirmation bias and to seek the easiest form of (dis)proof which is "by counter-example".   Once a hypothesis has been wrung out well and advanced to a "tentative" theory, it is time for the larger community to take the same crack at it... do their best to poke holes in it.    Once it has been through "enough" of that kind of scrutiny, we tend to accept the theory as a tentative, conditional, temporary "truth".  Unfortunately non-scientists tend to glom onto that kind of "vetting" process as if it leads to a final, irrefutable and irreversible conclusion.   Scientists know that all knowledge is provisional, that it will get overturned, elaborated, or eclipsed somewhere down the line.   Those who realized the earth was spherical, not flat got trumped when someone else eventually pointed out that it was more of an oblate spheroid!   And now, with Gil's Saros cycles we have to remember that complex tidal forces are even wracking it out of shape on a 14 year cycle! In a century (if there is anyone there to reflect on it) we will laugh at some of our strongest beliefs for (or against) climate change.  By then we will know a lot more, this is not a phenomena that is easy to "test", mostly we can only watch it play out like a slow motion 50 car pileup on the freeway! - Steve Glen (as typical) raises a good question what the purpose and thrust of this forum is. If you even know. A few scientists have even said that one of the truly awesome things about science is they "question everything". And there's been a theory that weather patterns are influenced somewhat by  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saros_(astronomy) http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1306/1306.0451.pdf For what it's worth Neil De Grasse Tyson at one time noted on a Bill Myre (however it's spelled) talk He's conflicted if the perceived changes are part of a greater weather pattern,- Or if it's related to humans doing they're thing. On Wed, Sep 23, 2015 at 7:48 AM, Gillian Densmore <gil.densm...@gmail.com> wrote: Wikipedia has a article about climate change skeptics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming On Tue, Sep 22, 2015 at 6:34 PM, Nick Thompson <nickthomp...@earthlink.net> wrote: G Think of Emerson and Thoreau. N Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of glen Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2015 1:30 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics On 09/21/2015 02:42 PM, Nick Thompson wrote: > It's Earnest New Englanders Getting Together.  Is that a recognizable category, or do I need to say more. Heh, I suppose Illinois is too far away:    http://freethinker.co.uk/2015/09/21/pope-francis-is-on-the-path-to-paganism/    https://www.heartland.org/gene-koprowski being from Texas, I'm incapable of distinguishing one yankee from another. -- ⇔ glen ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

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