I assume the reasons why some comrades dispute our thesis of a defeat
for the U.S. and Israel respectively a victory for Iran is because they
consider Iran not as a semi-colony but rather a (sub-)imperialist power.
Hence, they consider the successful reliance of Iran against the
American-Zionist aggression not as a plus for anti-imperialism. This
shows how important it is to have a sound theory of imperialism and an
analysis of Iran. (For my views on this see those two books –
Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry,
https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/;
The Great Robbery of the South,
https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/great-robbery-of-the-south/ - as
well as this articleIran: A “Regional Imperialist Power” or a Capitalist
Semi-Colony? 18 June 2025,
https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/iran-a-regional-imperialist-power-or-a-capitalist-semi-colony/)
On the factual level, things are pretty clear. Iran has been and remains
in control of the Strait of Hormuz. It earns more money than before the
war with its own shipments and, in addition, it takes tolls from others.
The U.S. and Israel have not achieved any of their war goals. Do
comrades want to dispute these well-known facts?
Hence, the Zionists are outraged – Israeli opposition politicians like
Lapid and Bennet talk about a catastrophe and even a minister from
Netanayhu’s Likud party criticizes the ceasefire agreed by the U.S.
Those who read assessments by others will see that by now – 30 hours
later – my interpretation of the meaning of the ceasefire has
essentially been shared by others (of course coming from different point
of views). Israel’s Maariv – one of the largest daily newspapers –
writes about a “/decisive victory for Iran/” and a “/strategic
surrender/” by the US and Israel. The well-known Middle East expert Juan
Cole (https://asiatimes.com/2026/04/the-winner-of-trumps-iran-war-iran/)
and Andrew Mitrovica, an Al Jazeera columnist,
(https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/4/9/iran-has-been-bloodied-but-it-is-winning-against-the-us-israel-axis)
write similarly. One could add various others (e.g.
https://asiatimes.com/2026/04/middle-east-ceasefire-may-have-made-iran-stronger/,
https://asiatimes.com/2026/04/how-iran-wins-the-war-on-its-own-terms/)
or progressive writers like David Hearst
(https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/how-us-israeli-war-gave-iran-all-cards-middle-east).
Am 08.04.2026 um 19:11 schrieb David Walters via groups.io:
We very rarely comment on the RKOB's postings...or...for that
matter...anyone who posts a link to another site and expects list
members to read it. I just posted one myself on the Jewish Socialist
Bund but it is a book review, not a political essay...
I really object to the RKOB's politically irresponsible posting of
this wishful thinking collection of falsehoods. I generally agree
with the RKOB, about 75% of the time. Here I do not. I agree with the
first sentence of the second paragraph: "Trump is the yapping mutt of
a declining imperialist power." Well that is true. Though I'm not sure
what "declining" actually means...? Militarily? I don't' think so.
Economically...only the most long terms outlook. Politically?
Certainly. Other than that it is one those left generalities designed
to instill hope among the readers.
RKOB completely and totally misreads the ceasefire agreement. To wit:
Instead of attacking Iran with carpet bombing and nuclear weapons,
he suddenly agreed to a 2-week ceasefire (which, according to the
Pakistani negotiators, includes Lebanon) and the beginning of
negotiations on the basis of Iran’s 10-point proposal. This
proposal includes: a fundamental commitment to non-aggression,
continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of
uranium enrichment, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions,
termination of all UN Security Council and IEAE Board of Governors
resolutions, compensation to Iran, withdrawal of U.S. combat
forces from the region, and cessation of war on all fronts,
including against the Islamic resistance in Lebanon.
What "proposal?" YES...that is Iran's proposal, designed to NEVER
allow the US to agree to it. First of all, the U.S. has used B-52s in
hitting Iran supposedly only their military sites. They do this by
carpet bombing an entire square mile or more surrounding the site
hoping for hits.
The "negotiations" which according to Iran haven't ever happened
except through some Pakistani conduits and hasn't taken place. No one,
I mean no one on the U.S. side is going to /negotiate/ around Iran's
"10 Point Program". The cease fire doesn't even include the IDF and,
it has been rejected by the PM of Israel as to being applied to
Lebanon, where bombings, missile attacks and ethnic cleansing
continues /totally unabated./
Additionally according to /Straight Arrow News: /
Based on reports as of April 8, 2026, the two-week US-Iran
ceasefire *does not* include formal Iranian control over the
Strait of Hormuz, but rather a complex, disputed arrangement where
Iran manages traffic while allowing safe passage to avoid further
U.S. attacks.
In otherwords what existed before the U.S. criminal attack on that
country. The U.S. is /now/ going to be allowed to escort oil tankers
in and out of the Straights.
More misleading comments from Vienna:
Furthermore, the ceasefire agreement also includes that Trump has
to accept that Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz and
to collect tolls from vessels transiting the route.
No, it doesn't. Again, the RKOB acts like the "10 Point Program" is
accepted. It has not been, at all. The U.S. /still imposing it's
Imperialist will/ and hasn't bent to Iranian demands on this. It
might, or might not but the point is that Trump has not decided yet.
The RKOB post additionally projects:
Nevertheless, forcing the American-Zionist monster to such
concessions is a humiliating defeat and a glorious victory for the
Iranian people!
Please! Stop with such nonsensical memes of "victory". There is no
"humiliation". No "glorius victory". Parroting the reactionary gov't
in Tehran doesn't help anti-imperialism. It is a form of religiosity
that more mimics the theocracy than it does an analysis based on the
material, and this case /military/ reality of the current state of
things in the Gulf.
The rest of the essay reads like a cheerleader squad rooting on their
teams fight against their opponents on the field. The Iranian military
was NEVER expecting the massive ordinance dumped on Iranian military
sites. Their insanely incompetent anti-aircraft operations reads like
a manual on how to right against windmills on the back of a donkey.
"Victory" is left basically undefined. The essay is correct about the
shifting goals of the US and Israel. They overlapped but were not the
same. Netanyahu, who does support the ceasefire, sees it as an OK
thing as it allows them continue trying to annex southern Lebanon. At
least to focus on that. They accomplished /their goal/ which was to
wipe out the Iranian leadership (such as it was) as a kind of
punishment operation without real consequences accept in the political
sense and destroy hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure
and kill thousands of Iranian...along with the U.S.
The last thing I will note is this: Iranian oil export did see a
slight increase. Why? Because, and ONLY because, the U.S. saw this as
necessary to maintain some sort of oil price stability. IF the U.S.
wanted to, it could easily block the Straights of Hormuz.
This essay was a "feel good" essay to make anti-Imperialists feel
good. It should not be taken seriously.
David
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