> On Apr 9, 2026, at 06:11, RKOB via groups.io <[email protected]> wrote:
> 
> I assume the reasons why some comrades dispute our thesis of a defeat for the 
> U.S. and Israel respectively a victory for Iran is because they consider Iran 
> not as a semi-colony but rather a (sub-)imperialist power.

There were two of us who objected, and David can speak for himself. My 
objection, Michael, has less to do with Iran than the kind of agitprop that 
misleads rather than informs. For example:

"Furthermore, the ceasefire agreement also includes that Trump has to accept 
that Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz and to collect tolls from 
vessels transiting the route."

As David pointed out, you cited Iran's proposal and called it "the agreement." 
If your claim is that Iran has won and the war is now over, that Iran's terms 
have been accepted by the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia, I think that's 
dangerously misleading. US aggression against Iran is not over. There is no 
"agreement." Like in Greenland, Trump climbed down once again and we don't know 
why. Unlike Greenland, it probably isn't over. We don't know what the Europeans 
threatened to do but Trump fled the European conference two days early.

My point was that your analysis is incomplete because there was no 
consideration of the Gulf States. MBS is probably at least as important to 
Trump's motives as Israel because of Saudi money. Like in the Occupied 
Territories, you focus on the military and neglect the political, anticipating 
a military victory where they can be none. The US is being politically 
humiliated and isolated but not seriously weakened by Iran's intransigence; the 
US allies are. A political victory is far more likely. China and the EU are 
opposed to the US war and can do things about it. Maybe they already are doing 
it. We don't know. People have pointed out that the China and the EU are 
holding enough US bonds that they could create a financial crisis in the US by 
massively selling them. 

Mark

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