On Mon, May 18, 2009 at 07:30:06PM -0400, Adam Maas scripsit:
> On Mon, May 18, 2009 at 7:12 PM, Graydon <o...@uniserve.com> wrote:
[snip]
> > It would be surprising if all the chips involved could make it to 10
> > years; 20 would be well past surprising and into "how on earth?"
> > territory.  Running a microchip will eventually break it, as the
> > electrical current causes atoms to move and this eventually makes a
> > transistor unable to trans.  Relatively low power, and relatively low
> > use (no one has their camera on 24/7, unlike a server) camera chips are
> > going to last relatively well, but there's a certain amount of passive
> > diffusion involved, too.  All that cleverness isn't really stable; it's
> > just that the house of cards takes some years to fall over.
> 
> Design lifetimes on that sort of failure are in the decades. Server
> failures are generally heat or mechanical failures (something
> overheated or spindle/fan failures) and often both.

Or current spikes, yes.

But chip failures, particularly memory and processor failures, do
happen.  Managing materials migration is still something of a black art,
especially as new process nodes are developed and theory meets practise.

> I've got functional systems dating back more than 20 years (Mac II,
> circa 1987) and 2 systems currently up 24x7 that have been running
> since the late 90's (one PowerMac B&W G3, one PC)

There is very likely a certain amount of long-right-tail going on there,
and also a certain amount of 'larger process, less problem'; the Mac II
probably doesn't have any migration issues to speak of, it's not
miniaturized enough.  Current ~40nm processes have much more of a
problem with this sort of thing, there's just less distance involved.

Camera parts won't be on that kind of process, though I'd suspect
they're all down around ~100 nm by now; power is going to be a major
driver for process selection in anything battery powered.

And in a camera, the most vulnerable chip is the sensor. There are 2009
ACM papers presenting improved modelling methods for predicting sensor
node (which if I understand the abstract means "pixel") lifetime, so I
suspect the 'black art' part is still at least somewhat the case.

> 20 years for a camera is easily achievable under light/moderate. 

I won't go for easy; possible, sure, but this is something that gets
carried around and regularly rattled, a wide (or at least potentially
wide) thermal environment, and where the most important chip is
frequently directly exposed to daylight.

> The biggest issues will be batteries on those bodies that take
> proprietary batteries and overall shutter life. Chances are that
> getting replacements may become an issue and battery lifetimes are
> 18-24 months. Of course the Pentax bodies that take AA's lack the
> battery replacement issues.

No arguments whatsoever on the batteries.

-- Graydon

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