Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-12 Thread Hiroshi Yamashita

O Meien 9dan wrote a short column about FIT2008 event.
Title is Kanpai monte-carlo.
Kanpai means Cheers! and another meaning is complete defeat.
(Maybe he uses this from old Japanese hit song monte-carlo de kanpai.)

Content is
 He has thought abstract Area is important for computer Go.
 Crazy Stone was strong in Yose.
 If you play 8 handicaps in 19x19, 2 handicaps is proper in 9x9.
 He thought no komi and playing with white was easy win for him.
 Afeter 19x19, he thought Crazy Stone was amateur 3dan, but
  after 9x9, he felt Crazy Stone still had hidden power.
 Go strength is mainly from close fight. Computers are still weak
  in 19x19, but maybe it is because computers does not know how to
  handle it. They have power, some techniques will be needed.
 Many Go players think top pro never lose to computer within 50 years,
  but it is maybe too optimistic. X day may come within 10 years.

Kanpai monte-carlo (in Japanese)
http://taisen.mycom.co.jp/taisen/contents/igo/meien/meien_30.htm
Machine trasnlation
http://nifty.amikai.com/AmiWeb?ami_url=http://taisen.mycom.co.jp/taisen/contents/igo/meien/meien_30.htmami_src_lang=JAami_tar_lang=ENami_dis=3ami_dict=generalami_font_col=009933

Regards,
Hiroshi Yamashita


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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-05 Thread Don Dailey
On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 18:07 +0200, Rémi Coulom wrote:
 When the playouts evaluate a critical semeai the wrong way, then no 
 supercomputer can help, even at long time control. Semeais require a 
 better algorithm, because no computing power can search them out with
 a 
 tree, and playouts have to be extremely intelligent in order to
 evaluate 
 them correctly.
 
 Rémi


Rémi,

I have no doubt that is true and that ways should be found to deal with
this.

It will probably happen like in chess where at some point players learn
how to play against machines and this will suppress the ratings for a
while.   I fully expect that to happen.   This happened around the time
that chess playing computers suddenly became a commodity item in the
late 70's early 80's approximately.   It was almost as if computers
stopped improving for 2 or 3 years even though they really were getting
better.

I don't think this will have any affect on their scalability - it is
just a reflection on how difficult go is to play for computers.  There
were also seemingly insurmountable problems in chess just like this
where people said no amount of search will fix it but it didn't stop the
very slow but gradual improvement.   

To this very day it's possible to find chess positions that computers
play stupidly, but it's getting really rare.

- Don
 

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Re: Rating systems (was Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone)

2008-09-05 Thread David Doshay
You would have to ask these questions of Paul. He is an extremely  
serious and careful person, so while I would find it hard to believe  
that every person had exactly the same rating down to 0.01, it must  
have been very close when the entire collection of AGA members was  
considered. I do not believe that Paul would have allowed the change  
in the previous rules if the data were not convincing. But I was not  
involved at the time, so he would know and I only know the story as it  
was told to me (and how it is being used as the basis for rating  
computer Go playing programs now).


Cheers,
David



On 5, Sep 2008, at 1:46 AM, Robert Jasiek wrote:


David Doshay wrote:
 Two
separate rating tables were kept, one for handicap games and  
another for non-handicap games. Over time it turned out that the  
ratings for individuals converged


Did they converge for each person individually or converge only for  
all persons on average? Did the convergence occur for all persons  
regardless of whether they played Black the more often in handicap  
games? Did fixed versus free handicaps make a difference? Would  
altering the handicap density per rank difference / komi system have  
made a difference?


IOW, was the conclusion well justified or misinterpretation?

--
robert jasiek
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Rémi Coulom

[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

Wasn't it today that Crazystone had a match against a professional
player? During the FIT2008 conference at Keio University?

Does anyone know the result and if the game is available somewhere?

Jonas
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Crazy Stone won, with a 8-stone handicap. It was running on an 8-core 
PC. The game record is attached. I will set up a web page with more 
details soon.


Rémi


FIT2008_aoba_kaori_VS_CS.sgf
Description: application/go-sgf
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread terry mcintyre
Congratulations!

I'm dying for details! What was the time limit? Did the game end on time or by 
resignation at move 179? 

The pro was Aoba Kaori, yes? 

 Terry McIntyre [EMAIL PROTECTED]


Go is very hard. The more I learn about it, the less I know. -Jie Li, 9 dan



- Original Message 
 From: Rémi Coulom [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 To: computer-go computer-go@computer-go.org
 Sent: Thursday, September 4, 2008 3:56:05 AM
 Subject: Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone
 
 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  Wasn't it today that Crazystone had a match against a professional
  player? During the FIT2008 conference at Keio University?
 
  Does anyone know the result and if the game is available somewhere?
 
  Jonas
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 Crazy Stone won, with a 8-stone handicap. It was running on an 8-core 
 PC. The game record is attached. I will set up a web page with more 
 details soon.
 
 Rémi




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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Rémi Coulom

terry mcintyre wrote:

Congratulations!
  


Thanks.


I'm dying for details! What was the time limit?


The organizers asked that the program should play at a constant time (30 
second) per move. The sgf file contains time stamps (you can see the 
time with gogui, for instance). I don't know what was her time control, 
but she apparently played at the same pace as the program.


 Did the game end on time or by resignation at move 179? 
  


She resigned.

The pro was Aoba Kaori, yes? 
  


Yes.

The only other information I have about the match are these pages in 
Japanese:

https://secure1.gakkai-web.net/gakkai/fit/program/html/event/event.html#6
http://www.ipsj.or.jp/10jigyo/fit/fit2008/events.html#1-4-1

I hope the organizers can send me some photos tomorrow. Then I will set 
up a web page and tell the list.


Rémi
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Hiroshi Yamashita

Congratulations, Remi!

I just returned from FIT2008.
This was first official professional vs. computer game in Japan.
I added some comments in sgf.
These game comments are stated by O Meien professional 9dan.

Aoba 4dan's comment after game.
My guess was soft was strong, but something is different.
I think I played well partially, upper left and right side.
I think it is even game when I get one stone on bottom.
Crazy Stone played yose correctly, amateur 5dan level.

Tei Meikou pro 9dan said,
Crazy Stone is much stronger than last year's UEC cup.

After this game, O Meien 9dan played with Crazy Stone on 9x9.
Komi was 0.5 and Meien 9dan played White.
Crazy Stone won. This was very exciting game.

I put some photos.
http://www.yss-aya.com/photo/20080904fit/index01.html

FIT2008 Computer Go Frontier (in Japanese)
https://secure1.gakkai-web.net/gakkai/fit/program/html/event/event.html#6

Aoba Kaori 4dan
http://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/htm/ki000343.htm
O Meien 9dan
http://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/htm/ki66.htm

(;FF[3]GM[1]SZ[19]HA[8]
PB[Crazy Stone]
PW[Aoba Kaori]
DT[2008-09-04]
RE[B+R]
KM[0.5]
RU[Japanese]PC[Keio University, Shonan-Fujisawa, Kanagawa Japan]EV[FIT2008]
AB[dd][jd][pd][dj][pj][dp][jp][pp]
;W[dm];B[gk];W[gp];B[gn];W[eo];B[ep];W[fo];B[jn];W[dg];B[fg]
;W[cd];B[cc];W[de];B[ce];W[bd];B[ee];W[df];B[ec];W[bc];B[nd]
;W[qn];B[on];W[om];B[nm];W[ol];B[nl];W[ok];B[mi];W[nk];B[mk]
;W[nn];B[pn];W[mj];B[lj];W[ml];B[nj];W[mm]C[Tortoise shell is worth 60 points.
Pon-nuki is worth 30 points.
So white gets 30 points.]
;B[np];W[oj];B[oi];W[pi]C[I like M-9.]
;B[ph];W[qi];B[qm];W[oh];B[ni]
C[They say Crazy Stone resign 20% winning rate. It's a good loser. I never 
resign even if 0%.]
;W[pg]C[dreamy move. But black still leads 30 points.]
;B[qj];W[qh]C[Black should play R-8. Q10 is pivotal stones. ]
;B[ng]C[White can lay waste to the upper side. Black can not keep all. ]
;W[ql];B[qo];W[fd];B[fe];W[ed];B[dc];W[fc]C[Black B-18, white A-18 is 
difficult.]
;B[hd]C[Black could live at least. It looks finally  even.]
;W[eb]C[Will white lose totally? I can't imagine :-)]
;B[bo];W[do];B[cp];W[fq];B[cl];W[dr];B[cm];W[iq];B[jq];W[jr]
;B[kr];W[ir];B[rl];W[qk];B[kl];W[ge];B[hg]C[Maybe white's next move is 
33(R-17).]
;W[qc];B[qd];W[pb];B[pc];W[rb];B[rc];W[qb];B[cr];W[lr];B[rk]C[It is appreciate. 
White can play S-6 now.]
;W[rj];B[gf];W[nb];B[nc]C[About 100 moves is left. Black will lose 20 points 
after this.]
;W[mb];B[lc]C[L-3 is solid.]
;W[kq]C[White can win. But it is really difficult now.]
;B[er]C[Even O-2 is full stomach.]
;W[rn]C[Next move will R-3. I like O-2.]
;B[rm];W[qq];B[ro];W[or];B[nr];W[pr];B[gd];W[gb];B[gc];W[fb]
;B[kp];W[lq];B[oq];W[rr]C[Black G-2 is strong. Still difficult game.]
;B[ch];W[dh];B[di];W[eh]C[It looks close game. But I guess white will win.]
;B[bg];W[gi];B[hi];W[jm];B[km];W[hh];B[gh];W[hj];B[ih];W[gj]
;B[fi];W[fj];B[ij]C[Black stops here. Ha-ha-ha.]
;W[hk]C[Now white can connect.]
;B[dl];W[ik];B[jk];W[jj];B[ii];W[mc]C[I like L-17 tuke.]
;B[md];W[kc];B[ld];W[lb];B[be];W[cg];B[bh];W[kd];B[ke];W[jc]
;B[ic]C[White will lose on territory if nothing is done.]
;W[je];B[id];W[hm];B[fk];W[in]C[To win, white must kill O-13 and so on. It is 
not dream.]
;B[jl];W[fm]C[White should play J-7.]
;B[im];W[hn];B[ob]C[Black gives a point after a long time.]
;W[oa];B[hl];W[ei];B[ej];W[fh]C[It looks a bit bad. White is not enough, she 
needs speculative play.]
;B[ib];W[rd]C[If black gets 3 moku, it is over.
R-15 cut is small.]
;B[re];W[sc];B[kb];W[nh];B[mh];W[nf];B[og];W[qe];B[pf];W[qf]
;B[il];W[fi];B[sj];W[ri];B[ph];W[oh];B[gm])


This 9x9 game record is maybe not correct. I inputed manually.

(;
GM[1]SZ[9]
PB[Crazy Stone]
PW[O Meien]
DT[2008-09-04]
RE[W+3.5]
KM[0.5]TM[600]RU[Japanese]
;B[ee];W[eg];B[ec];W[ge];B[df];W[dg];B[cg];W[cf];B[ce];W[bf]
;B[ch];W[be];B[ff];W[fg];B[gf];W[gg];B[cc];W[bd];B[hg];W[hh]
;B[hf];W[ef];B[de];W[fe];B[ih];W[he];B[gh];W[hi];B[gi];W[if]
;B[ii];W[hh];B[hi];W[ie];B[dh];W[ig];B[eh];W[hh];B[bc];W[bg]
;B[bh];W[fb];B[fc];W[gc];B[eb];W[fh];B[gb];W[hb];B[fa];W[ei]
;B[ah];W[di];B[cd];W[ci];B[ad];W[bi];B[ae];W[ha];B[hc];W[gd]
;B[ib];W[hd];B[ga];W[ic];B[af];W[fd];B[ed];W[fi];B[ag];W[ai]
)

Regards,
Hiroshi Yamashita


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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Don Dailey
It's difficult for me to understand this due to different ranking
systems and pro ratings vs amateur ratings.   I see here listed as a 4
dan player on this page:  

http://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/htm/ki000343.htm


Is that 4 dan pro?  My understanding is something like this:

kyu player are casual players (or weak tournament players)

low dan players are something like advanced amateurs or experts and weak
masters in chess.

Pro's are like super high dan players and there is not very much
difference between ranks compared to regular dan players.  I have heard
that a 1d professional will beat a 9d professional with 3 or 4 stones. 

So a 1d pro is something like a 7 or 8d+ amateur?  

Is this all roughly correct?   

So I assume that Aoba Kaori is a 4d professional?  That would relate to
something in the ballpark of 9 or 10d amateur if there were such a
thing.   And with 8 stones handicap, this implies that CrazyStone did
what a 2d+ would have done,  or it is weaker than 2d but got lucky.  So
it's performance rating for that one game is lower bounded at around 1
or 2 dan.   Since it won the game we could pick 2 dan as a better lower
bound guess although since it won we do not have a reasonable upper
bound guess on it's performance except our own credulity.   

Does what I said make any sense?  I am not a go player and I'm not very
comfortable with this guesswork.   In chess, if you beat a player I am
used to thinking in terms of setting a performance rating of around 400
ELO higher for that one game.   I know this is not precise, but I also
think of 400 ELO subtracted from the player you beat as a kind of
estimated lower bound on your strength.  If you beat a 2500 ELO chess
player, it's a relatively safe bet that you are at least 2100 ELO in
strength although technically there is a chance you could lose to
anybody, even a random move generator.

I know this isn't precise language, but how many ranks would give us
around 90 - 95% confidence of superiority?If I beat a 5 dan player,
could you say that it's very likely I am at least 3 dan in strength?

I'm thinking that if we estimate Aoba at 10d amateur and CrazyStone wins
with 8 stone handicap, it is roughly equivalent to beating a 2d player
without handicap and that we can subtract 2 stones to say that with
pretty high confidence CrazyStone is playing at least 1 kyu  (but that's
it's much more likely Crazy Stone is stronger than this - after all it
performed in this one game at least as well as 2d player.) 


- Don




On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 16:28 +0200, Rémi Coulom wrote:
 terry mcintyre wrote:
  Congratulations!

 
 Thanks.
 
  I'm dying for details! What was the time limit?
 
 The organizers asked that the program should play at a constant time (30 
 second) per move. The sgf file contains time stamps (you can see the 
 time with gogui, for instance). I don't know what was her time control, 
 but she apparently played at the same pace as the program.
 
   Did the game end on time or by resignation at move 179? 

 
 She resigned.
 
  The pro was Aoba Kaori, yes? 

 
 Yes.
 
 The only other information I have about the match are these pages in 
 Japanese:
 https://secure1.gakkai-web.net/gakkai/fit/program/html/event/event.html#6
 http://www.ipsj.or.jp/10jigyo/fit/fit2008/events.html#1-4-1
 
 I hope the organizers can send me some photos tomorrow. Then I will set 
 up a web page and tell the list.
 
 Rémi
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Don Dailey
I meant to add that we cannot calculate an upper bound on it's strength
since there was only 1 game and it was a win.

What I'm trying to determine is if we can say with a high degree of
confidence yet that computers have achieved the 1 dan level?   This has
been kind of a holy grail of computer go in my opinion - even if it
wasn't directly articulated (or perhaps it was?)  

- Don


On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 11:38 -0400, Don Dailey wrote:
 It's difficult for me to understand this due to different ranking
 systems and pro ratings vs amateur ratings.   I see here listed as a 4
 dan player on this page:  
 
 http://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/htm/ki000343.htm
 
 
 Is that 4 dan pro?  My understanding is something like this:
 
 kyu player are casual players (or weak tournament players)
 
 low dan players are something like advanced amateurs or experts and weak
 masters in chess.
 
 Pro's are like super high dan players and there is not very much
 difference between ranks compared to regular dan players.  I have heard
 that a 1d professional will beat a 9d professional with 3 or 4 stones. 
 
 So a 1d pro is something like a 7 or 8d+ amateur?  
 
 Is this all roughly correct?   
 
 So I assume that Aoba Kaori is a 4d professional?  That would relate to
 something in the ballpark of 9 or 10d amateur if there were such a
 thing.   And with 8 stones handicap, this implies that CrazyStone did
 what a 2d+ would have done,  or it is weaker than 2d but got lucky.  So
 it's performance rating for that one game is lower bounded at around 1
 or 2 dan.   Since it won the game we could pick 2 dan as a better lower
 bound guess although since it won we do not have a reasonable upper
 bound guess on it's performance except our own credulity.   
 
 Does what I said make any sense?  I am not a go player and I'm not very
 comfortable with this guesswork.   In chess, if you beat a player I am
 used to thinking in terms of setting a performance rating of around 400
 ELO higher for that one game.   I know this is not precise, but I also
 think of 400 ELO subtracted from the player you beat as a kind of
 estimated lower bound on your strength.  If you beat a 2500 ELO chess
 player, it's a relatively safe bet that you are at least 2100 ELO in
 strength although technically there is a chance you could lose to
 anybody, even a random move generator.
 
 I know this isn't precise language, but how many ranks would give us
 around 90 - 95% confidence of superiority?If I beat a 5 dan player,
 could you say that it's very likely I am at least 3 dan in strength?
 
 I'm thinking that if we estimate Aoba at 10d amateur and CrazyStone wins
 with 8 stone handicap, it is roughly equivalent to beating a 2d player
 without handicap and that we can subtract 2 stones to say that with
 pretty high confidence CrazyStone is playing at least 1 kyu  (but that's
 it's much more likely Crazy Stone is stronger than this - after all it
 performed in this one game at least as well as 2d player.) 
 
 
 - Don
 
 
 
 
 On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 16:28 +0200, Rémi Coulom wrote:
  terry mcintyre wrote:
   Congratulations!
 
  
  Thanks.
  
   I'm dying for details! What was the time limit?
  
  The organizers asked that the program should play at a constant time (30 
  second) per move. The sgf file contains time stamps (you can see the 
  time with gogui, for instance). I don't know what was her time control, 
  but she apparently played at the same pace as the program.
  
Did the game end on time or by resignation at move 179? 
 
  
  She resigned.
  
   The pro was Aoba Kaori, yes? 
 
  
  Yes.
  
  The only other information I have about the match are these pages in 
  Japanese:
  https://secure1.gakkai-web.net/gakkai/fit/program/html/event/event.html#6
  http://www.ipsj.or.jp/10jigyo/fit/fit2008/events.html#1-4-1
  
  I hope the organizers can send me some photos tomorrow. Then I will set 
  up a web page and tell the list.
  
  Rémi
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Andy
I'm excited to see a computer reach 1d as well.  For me I'm waiting to see a
bot hold a 1d rating consistently on kgs.  Right now CrazyStone has been
rated 1d briefly, but hasn't been able to maintain it.  It's currently 1k.

I put a small table of the progress of a few bot's ratings on kgs at
http://senseis.xmp.net/?KGSBotRatings

I would like to see MogoTiTan play many rated games on KGS and see how it
does there.  Anyone have a few million dollars lying around to sponsor
this?  :)


On Thu, Sep 4, 2008 at 10:48 AM, Don Dailey [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 I meant to add that we cannot calculate an upper bound on it's strength
 since there was only 1 game and it was a win.

 What I'm trying to determine is if we can say with a high degree of
 confidence yet that computers have achieved the 1 dan level?   This has
 been kind of a holy grail of computer go in my opinion - even if it
 wasn't directly articulated (or perhaps it was?)

 - Don


 On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 11:38 -0400, Don Dailey wrote:
  It's difficult for me to understand this due to different ranking
  systems and pro ratings vs amateur ratings.   I see here listed as a 4
  dan player on this page:
 
  http://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/htm/ki000343.htm
 
 
  Is that 4 dan pro?  My understanding is something like this:
 
  kyu player are casual players (or weak tournament players)
 
  low dan players are something like advanced amateurs or experts and weak
  masters in chess.
 
  Pro's are like super high dan players and there is not very much
  difference between ranks compared to regular dan players.  I have heard
  that a 1d professional will beat a 9d professional with 3 or 4 stones.
 
  So a 1d pro is something like a 7 or 8d+ amateur?
 
  Is this all roughly correct?
 
  So I assume that Aoba Kaori is a 4d professional?  That would relate to
  something in the ballpark of 9 or 10d amateur if there were such a
  thing.   And with 8 stones handicap, this implies that CrazyStone did
  what a 2d+ would have done,  or it is weaker than 2d but got lucky.  So
  it's performance rating for that one game is lower bounded at around 1
  or 2 dan.   Since it won the game we could pick 2 dan as a better lower
  bound guess although since it won we do not have a reasonable upper
  bound guess on it's performance except our own credulity.
 
  Does what I said make any sense?  I am not a go player and I'm not very
  comfortable with this guesswork.   In chess, if you beat a player I am
  used to thinking in terms of setting a performance rating of around 400
  ELO higher for that one game.   I know this is not precise, but I also
  think of 400 ELO subtracted from the player you beat as a kind of
  estimated lower bound on your strength.  If you beat a 2500 ELO chess
  player, it's a relatively safe bet that you are at least 2100 ELO in
  strength although technically there is a chance you could lose to
  anybody, even a random move generator.
 
  I know this isn't precise language, but how many ranks would give us
  around 90 - 95% confidence of superiority?If I beat a 5 dan player,
  could you say that it's very likely I am at least 3 dan in strength?
 
  I'm thinking that if we estimate Aoba at 10d amateur and CrazyStone wins
  with 8 stone handicap, it is roughly equivalent to beating a 2d player
  without handicap and that we can subtract 2 stones to say that with
  pretty high confidence CrazyStone is playing at least 1 kyu  (but that's
  it's much more likely Crazy Stone is stronger than this - after all it
  performed in this one game at least as well as 2d player.)
 
 
  - Don
 
 
 
 
  On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 16:28 +0200, Rémi Coulom wrote:
   terry mcintyre wrote:
Congratulations!
   
  
   Thanks.
  
I'm dying for details! What was the time limit?
  
   The organizers asked that the program should play at a constant time
 (30
   second) per move. The sgf file contains time stamps (you can see the
   time with gogui, for instance). I don't know what was her time control,
   but she apparently played at the same pace as the program.
  
 Did the game end on time or by resignation at move 179?
   
  
   She resigned.
  
The pro was Aoba Kaori, yes?
   
  
   Yes.
  
   The only other information I have about the match are these pages in
   Japanese:
  
 https://secure1.gakkai-web.net/gakkai/fit/program/html/event/event.html#6
   http://www.ipsj.or.jp/10jigyo/fit/fit2008/events.html#1-4-1
  
   I hope the organizers can send me some photos tomorrow. Then I will set
   up a web page and tell the list.
  
   Rémi
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Rémi Coulom

Don Dailey wrote:

I'm thinking that if we estimate Aoba at 10d amateur and CrazyStone wins
with 8 stone handicap, it is roughly equivalent to beating a 2d player
without handicap and that we can subtract 2 stones to say that with
pretty high confidence CrazyStone is playing at least 1 kyu  (but that's
it's much more likely Crazy Stone is stronger than this - after all it
performed in this one game at least as well as 2d player.) 
  


Hi Don,

Crazy Stone played a few games on KGS, and has a strong 1k rank there.

When watching the games, I feel that its level is sometimes very high, 
sometimes very low. If there is a semeai on the board that the playouts 
evaluate wrongly, then its playing style is absolutely horrible (much 
lower than 1k). Otherwise, it plays very strong (stronger than 1k). 
Well, I am only 5k, so I cannot really tell. But when I see the horrors 
it plays in some games, I suppose it must play much stronger than 1k in 
some other games in order to get a rating of 1k.


Look for instance at these two games:
a win: http://files.gokgs.com/games/2008/8/23/CrazyStone-mandelbrot.sgf
a loss: http://files.gokgs.com/games/2008/8/23/CrazyStone-beoren.sgf
(with comments of the opponents at the end)

I have the feeling that MoGo has the same problem. It seems to be 
typical. Against Kim Myung Wan, it was very clear. In the games it lost, 
there were big semeais on the board. And MoGo played horribly. In my 
opinion, this is what explains the apparent difference of level between 
the blitz and the slow game. Not the time control. Of course, this is 
just a guess. Maybe members of the MoGo team can confirm/infirm this.


When the playouts evaluate a critical semeai the wrong way, then no 
supercomputer can help, even at long time control. Semeais require a 
better algorithm, because no computing power can search them out with a 
tree, and playouts have to be extremely intelligent in order to evaluate 
them correctly.


Rémi
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Rémi Coulom

Andy wrote:
I'm excited to see a computer reach 1d as well.  For me I'm waiting to 
see a bot hold a 1d rating consistently on kgs.  Right now CrazyStone 
has been rated 1d briefly, but hasn't been able to maintain it.  It's 
currently 1k.


I put a small table of the progress of a few bot's ratings on kgs at 
http://senseis.xmp.net/?KGSBotRatings


I would like to see MogoTiTan play many rated games on KGS and see how 
it does there.  Anyone have a few million dollars lying around to 
sponsor this?  :)


Leela is becoming strong. It has reached 1k now.

Rémi
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Nick Wedd
In message [EMAIL PROTECTED], Don Dailey 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes

I meant to add that we cannot calculate an upper bound on it's strength
since there was only 1 game and it was a win.

What I'm trying to determine is if we can say with a high degree of
confidence yet that computers have achieved the 1 dan level?   This has
been kind of a holy grail of computer go in my opinion - even if it
wasn't directly articulated (or perhaps it was?)


My understanding of the rating system:
Amateur grades, from 20 kyu and below, up to amateur 6 dan, are one 
stone apart.

Pro 1 dan is about equivalent to amateur 7 dan.
Pro grades are about a third of a stone apart.
This all varies a bit from country to country: for example a European 
amateur 3 dan is stronger than a Japanese amateur 3 dan.


As for 1 dan being a kind of holy grail:
The Ing prize, worth over US$1,000,000, was for beating inseis, that is 
trainee professionals, who would have a strength of around amateur 7 dan 
or maybe slightly below.  So beating a [pro] 1-dan became a target. 
This has been misunderstood by some as amateur 1-dan.


I believe that MoGo, running on enough processors, is now stronger than 
a European amateur 1 dan who has not played it before or who has not 
learned to handle its unusual style.  I cannot guess how it would do 
in a nine-game match against a typical European amateur 1 dan.


Nick



- Don


On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 11:38 -0400, Don Dailey wrote:

It's difficult for me to understand this due to different ranking
systems and pro ratings vs amateur ratings.   I see here listed as a 4
dan player on this page:

http://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/htm/ki000343.htm


Is that 4 dan pro?  My understanding is something like this:

kyu player are casual players (or weak tournament players)

low dan players are something like advanced amateurs or experts and weak
masters in chess.

Pro's are like super high dan players and there is not very much
difference between ranks compared to regular dan players.  I have heard
that a 1d professional will beat a 9d professional with 3 or 4 stones.

So a 1d pro is something like a 7 or 8d+ amateur?

Is this all roughly correct?

So I assume that Aoba Kaori is a 4d professional?  That would relate to
something in the ballpark of 9 or 10d amateur if there were such a
thing.   And with 8 stones handicap, this implies that CrazyStone did
what a 2d+ would have done,  or it is weaker than 2d but got lucky.  So
it's performance rating for that one game is lower bounded at around 1
or 2 dan.   Since it won the game we could pick 2 dan as a better lower
bound guess although since it won we do not have a reasonable upper
bound guess on it's performance except our own credulity.

Does what I said make any sense?  I am not a go player and I'm not very
comfortable with this guesswork.   In chess, if you beat a player I am
used to thinking in terms of setting a performance rating of around 400
ELO higher for that one game.   I know this is not precise, but I also
think of 400 ELO subtracted from the player you beat as a kind of
estimated lower bound on your strength.  If you beat a 2500 ELO chess
player, it's a relatively safe bet that you are at least 2100 ELO in
strength although technically there is a chance you could lose to
anybody, even a random move generator.

I know this isn't precise language, but how many ranks would give us
around 90 - 95% confidence of superiority?If I beat a 5 dan player,
could you say that it's very likely I am at least 3 dan in strength?

I'm thinking that if we estimate Aoba at 10d amateur and CrazyStone wins
with 8 stone handicap, it is roughly equivalent to beating a 2d player
without handicap and that we can subtract 2 stones to say that with
pretty high confidence CrazyStone is playing at least 1 kyu  (but that's
it's much more likely Crazy Stone is stronger than this - after all it
performed in this one game at least as well as 2d player.)


- Don




On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 16:28 +0200, Rémi Coulom wrote:
 terry mcintyre wrote:
  Congratulations!
 

 Thanks.

  I'm dying for details! What was the time limit?

 The organizers asked that the program should play at a constant time (30
 second) per move. The sgf file contains time stamps (you can see the
 time with gogui, for instance). I don't know what was her time control,
 but she apparently played at the same pace as the program.

   Did the game end on time or by resignation at move 179?
 

 She resigned.

  The pro was Aoba Kaori, yes?
 

 Yes.

 The only other information I have about the match are these pages in
 Japanese:
 https://secure1.gakkai-web.net/gakkai/fit/program/html/event/event.html#6
 http://www.ipsj.or.jp/10jigyo/fit/fit2008/events.html#1-4-1

 I hope the organizers can send me some photos tomorrow. Then I will set
 up a web page and tell the list.

 Rémi
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Andy
On Thu, Sep 4, 2008 at 11:09 AM, Rémi Coulom [EMAIL PROTECTED]wrote:

 Andy wrote:

 I'm excited to see a computer reach 1d as well.  For me I'm waiting to see
 a bot hold a 1d rating consistently on kgs.  Right now CrazyStone has been
 rated 1d briefly, but hasn't been able to maintain it.  It's currently 1k.

 I put a small table of the progress of a few bot's ratings on kgs at
 http://senseis.xmp.net/?KGSBotRatings

 I would like to see MogoTiTan play many rated games on KGS and see how it
 does there.  Anyone have a few million dollars lying around to sponsor this?
  :)


 Leela is becoming strong. It has reached 1k now.

 Rémi


Thanks, I have updated http://senseis.xmp.net/?KGSBotRatings

- Andy
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Nick Wedd
In message [EMAIL PROTECTED], Rémi Coulom 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes

Don Dailey wrote:

I'm thinking that if we estimate Aoba at 10d amateur and CrazyStone wins
with 8 stone handicap, it is roughly equivalent to beating a 2d player
without handicap and that we can subtract 2 stones to say that with
pretty high confidence CrazyStone is playing at least 1 kyu  (but that's
it's much more likely Crazy Stone is stronger than this - after all it
performed in this one game at least as well as 2d player.)


Hi Don,

Crazy Stone played a few games on KGS, and has a strong 1k rank there.

When watching the games, I feel that its level is sometimes very high, 
sometimes very low. If there is a semeai on the board that the playouts 
evaluate wrongly, then its playing style is absolutely horrible (much 
lower than 1k). Otherwise, it plays very strong (stronger than 1k). 
Well, I am only 5k, so I cannot really tell. But when I see the horrors 
it plays in some games, I suppose it must play much stronger than 1k in 
some other games in order to get a rating of 1k.


Look for instance at these two games:
a win: http://files.gokgs.com/games/2008/8/23/CrazyStone-mandelbrot.sgf


When mandelbrot resigns, saying I was pwned, it appears to me that he 
is ahead.  If he plays at q11 instead of resigning, I think he can kill 
Crazy Stone's s12 group - but it's difficult, and I'm not sure.


Nick


a loss: http://files.gokgs.com/games/2008/8/23/CrazyStone-beoren.sgf
(with comments of the opponents at the end)

I have the feeling that MoGo has the same problem. It seems to be 
typical. Against Kim Myung Wan, it was very clear. In the games it 
lost, there were big semeais on the board. And MoGo played horribly. In 
my opinion, this is what explains the apparent difference of level 
between the blitz and the slow game. Not the time control. Of course, 
this is just a guess. Maybe members of the MoGo team can confirm/infirm this.


When the playouts evaluate a critical semeai the wrong way, then no 
supercomputer can help, even at long time control. Semeais require a 
better algorithm, because no computing power can search them out with a 
tree, and playouts have to be extremely intelligent in order to 
evaluate them correctly.


Rémi
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Rémi Coulom

Nick Wedd wrote:


When mandelbrot resigns, saying I was pwned, it appears to me that 
he is ahead.  If he plays at q11 instead of resigning, I think he can 
kill Crazy Stone's s12 group - but it's difficult, and I'm not sure. 


Bots are strong at psychological wins :-)

Rémi
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread steve uurtamo
1d (amateur) is a kind of holy grail for amateurs, because
it separates fairly serious players from people just messing
around, so seeing a program at that level on a 19x19 board at
reasonable (non-blitz) time controls is quite impressive.

1p is generally stronger than all but a small handful of
amateurs, so can be thought of as =7d (amateur).

beating a 1p in a zero-handicap game would be a
really, really big deal for a computer player.  $1M prize
was well-considered, from that point of view.  i think
that the insurance value of such a proposition is still
pretty low.

s.

On Thu, Sep 4, 2008 at 11:38 AM, Don Dailey [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 It's difficult for me to understand this due to different ranking
 systems and pro ratings vs amateur ratings.   I see here listed as a 4
 dan player on this page:

http://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/htm/ki000343.htm


 Is that 4 dan pro?  My understanding is something like this:

 kyu player are casual players (or weak tournament players)

 low dan players are something like advanced amateurs or experts and weak
 masters in chess.

 Pro's are like super high dan players and there is not very much
 difference between ranks compared to regular dan players.  I have heard
 that a 1d professional will beat a 9d professional with 3 or 4 stones.

 So a 1d pro is something like a 7 or 8d+ amateur?

 Is this all roughly correct?

 So I assume that Aoba Kaori is a 4d professional?  That would relate to
 something in the ballpark of 9 or 10d amateur if there were such a
 thing.   And with 8 stones handicap, this implies that CrazyStone did
 what a 2d+ would have done,  or it is weaker than 2d but got lucky.  So
 it's performance rating for that one game is lower bounded at around 1
 or 2 dan.   Since it won the game we could pick 2 dan as a better lower
 bound guess although since it won we do not have a reasonable upper
 bound guess on it's performance except our own credulity.

 Does what I said make any sense?  I am not a go player and I'm not very
 comfortable with this guesswork.   In chess, if you beat a player I am
 used to thinking in terms of setting a performance rating of around 400
 ELO higher for that one game.   I know this is not precise, but I also
 think of 400 ELO subtracted from the player you beat as a kind of
 estimated lower bound on your strength.  If you beat a 2500 ELO chess
 player, it's a relatively safe bet that you are at least 2100 ELO in
 strength although technically there is a chance you could lose to
 anybody, even a random move generator.

 I know this isn't precise language, but how many ranks would give us
 around 90 - 95% confidence of superiority?If I beat a 5 dan player,
 could you say that it's very likely I am at least 3 dan in strength?

 I'm thinking that if we estimate Aoba at 10d amateur and CrazyStone wins
 with 8 stone handicap, it is roughly equivalent to beating a 2d player
 without handicap and that we can subtract 2 stones to say that with
 pretty high confidence CrazyStone is playing at least 1 kyu  (but that's
 it's much more likely Crazy Stone is stronger than this - after all it
 performed in this one game at least as well as 2d player.)


 - Don




 On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 16:28 +0200, Rémi Coulom wrote:
 terry mcintyre wrote:
  Congratulations!
 

 Thanks.

  I'm dying for details! What was the time limit?

 The organizers asked that the program should play at a constant time (30
 second) per move. The sgf file contains time stamps (you can see the
 time with gogui, for instance). I don't know what was her time control,
 but she apparently played at the same pace as the program.

   Did the game end on time or by resignation at move 179?
 

 She resigned.

  The pro was Aoba Kaori, yes?
 

 Yes.

 The only other information I have about the match are these pages in
 Japanese:
 https://secure1.gakkai-web.net/gakkai/fit/program/html/event/event.html#6
 http://www.ipsj.or.jp/10jigyo/fit/fit2008/events.html#1-4-1

 I hope the organizers can send me some photos tomorrow. Then I will set
 up a web page and tell the list.

 Rémi
 ___
 computer-go mailing list
 computer-go@computer-go.org
 http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/

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 http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/

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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread steve uurtamo
in fact, if you made a betting game out of it, and formed a pool
that would go to anyone willing to take the challenge, i think
that you'd find that the ratio of dollars against to dollars for
would be a fairly accurate depiction of the strength increase over
time.  the ratio would likely lag behind the reality, but with
money involved, people might tend to think more carefully about
the situation.

i think that people have set up such market indicators for all
kinds of things just to see how accurately they predict reality.

s.

On Thu, Sep 4, 2008 at 12:38 PM, steve uurtamo [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 1d (amateur) is a kind of holy grail for amateurs, because
 it separates fairly serious players from people just messing
 around, so seeing a program at that level on a 19x19 board at
 reasonable (non-blitz) time controls is quite impressive.

 1p is generally stronger than all but a small handful of
 amateurs, so can be thought of as =7d (amateur).

 beating a 1p in a zero-handicap game would be a
 really, really big deal for a computer player.  $1M prize
 was well-considered, from that point of view.  i think
 that the insurance value of such a proposition is still
 pretty low.

 s.

 On Thu, Sep 4, 2008 at 11:38 AM, Don Dailey [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 It's difficult for me to understand this due to different ranking
 systems and pro ratings vs amateur ratings.   I see here listed as a 4
 dan player on this page:

http://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/htm/ki000343.htm


 Is that 4 dan pro?  My understanding is something like this:

 kyu player are casual players (or weak tournament players)

 low dan players are something like advanced amateurs or experts and weak
 masters in chess.

 Pro's are like super high dan players and there is not very much
 difference between ranks compared to regular dan players.  I have heard
 that a 1d professional will beat a 9d professional with 3 or 4 stones.

 So a 1d pro is something like a 7 or 8d+ amateur?

 Is this all roughly correct?

 So I assume that Aoba Kaori is a 4d professional?  That would relate to
 something in the ballpark of 9 or 10d amateur if there were such a
 thing.   And with 8 stones handicap, this implies that CrazyStone did
 what a 2d+ would have done,  or it is weaker than 2d but got lucky.  So
 it's performance rating for that one game is lower bounded at around 1
 or 2 dan.   Since it won the game we could pick 2 dan as a better lower
 bound guess although since it won we do not have a reasonable upper
 bound guess on it's performance except our own credulity.

 Does what I said make any sense?  I am not a go player and I'm not very
 comfortable with this guesswork.   In chess, if you beat a player I am
 used to thinking in terms of setting a performance rating of around 400
 ELO higher for that one game.   I know this is not precise, but I also
 think of 400 ELO subtracted from the player you beat as a kind of
 estimated lower bound on your strength.  If you beat a 2500 ELO chess
 player, it's a relatively safe bet that you are at least 2100 ELO in
 strength although technically there is a chance you could lose to
 anybody, even a random move generator.

 I know this isn't precise language, but how many ranks would give us
 around 90 - 95% confidence of superiority?If I beat a 5 dan player,
 could you say that it's very likely I am at least 3 dan in strength?

 I'm thinking that if we estimate Aoba at 10d amateur and CrazyStone wins
 with 8 stone handicap, it is roughly equivalent to beating a 2d player
 without handicap and that we can subtract 2 stones to say that with
 pretty high confidence CrazyStone is playing at least 1 kyu  (but that's
 it's much more likely Crazy Stone is stronger than this - after all it
 performed in this one game at least as well as 2d player.)


 - Don




 On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 16:28 +0200, Rémi Coulom wrote:
 terry mcintyre wrote:
  Congratulations!
 

 Thanks.

  I'm dying for details! What was the time limit?

 The organizers asked that the program should play at a constant time (30
 second) per move. The sgf file contains time stamps (you can see the
 time with gogui, for instance). I don't know what was her time control,
 but she apparently played at the same pace as the program.

   Did the game end on time or by resignation at move 179?
 

 She resigned.

  The pro was Aoba Kaori, yes?
 

 Yes.

 The only other information I have about the match are these pages in
 Japanese:
 https://secure1.gakkai-web.net/gakkai/fit/program/html/event/event.html#6
 http://www.ipsj.or.jp/10jigyo/fit/fit2008/events.html#1-4-1

 I hope the organizers can send me some photos tomorrow. Then I will set
 up a web page and tell the list.

 Rémi
 ___
 computer-go mailing list
 computer-go@computer-go.org
 http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/

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 computer-go mailing list
 computer-go@computer-go.org
 

Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Don Dailey
On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 17:09 +0100, Nick Wedd wrote:
 As for 1 dan being a kind of holy grail:
 The Ing prize, worth over US$1,000,000, was for beating inseis, that
 is 
 trainee professionals, who would have a strength of around amateur 7
 dan 
 or maybe slightly below.  So beating a [pro] 1-dan became a target. 
 This has been misunderstood by some as amateur 1-dan.

I never associated the Ing prize with this goal of achieving 1 dan.  

Probably any milestone easily expressed becomes a kind of holy grail
but I cannot read peoples minds.In my own mind it seems to me that
most guns have been aimed at getting out of the beginner kyu ranks.  

But of course, as I mentioned, most of this cannot be pinned down
accurately.   At any point in time, I imagine that most people are
focused primarily on the next milestone.If we reach 1d amateur,
surely the focus will shift to 1d professional, then beating the world
champion, etc.  


- Don









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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Gian-Carlo Pascutto
Rémi Coulom wrote:

 I would like to see MogoTiTan play many rated games on KGS and see how
 it does there.  Anyone have a few million dollars lying around to
 sponsor this?  :)
 
 Leela is becoming strong. It has reached 1k now.

The gold medal in Beijing will not go to France without a fight!

-- 
GCP
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Hideki Kato
Don Dailey: [EMAIL PROTECTED]:
It's difficult for me to understand this due to different ranking
systems and pro ratings vs amateur ratings.   I see here listed as a 4
dan player on this page:  

http://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/htm/ki000343.htm


Is that 4 dan pro?  My understanding is something like this:

kyu player are casual players (or weak tournament players)

low dan players are something like advanced amateurs or experts and weak
masters in chess.

Pro's are like super high dan players and there is not very much
difference between ranks compared to regular dan players.  I have heard
that a 1d professional will beat a 9d professional with 3 or 4 stones. 

So a 1d pro is something like a 7 or 8d+ amateur?  

Is this all roughly correct?   

I guess _yes_ but all the numbers are of Japanese rating, which is
something different than KGS.  Following is a (not authorized
but many people agreed) mapping:
KGS Japan (more exactly, East Japan)
1d  3d~4d
1k  2d~3d
2k  1d~2d

I'm KGS 3k now and, perhaps, 1d at Tokyo.  I won a game against a
Japanese 9p once with 8 stones handicap at a teaching game last Nov
but I won't be able to win against Kaori Inaba 4p at an open game with
8 stones.

I'm pretty sure that Crazy Stone is stronger than I and is 1k or
stronger because, as you wrote, it won the game.

Hideki

So I assume that Aoba Kaori is a 4d professional?  That would relate to
something in the ballpark of 9 or 10d amateur if there were such a
thing.   And with 8 stones handicap, this implies that CrazyStone did
what a 2d+ would have done,  or it is weaker than 2d but got lucky.  So
it's performance rating for that one game is lower bounded at around 1
or 2 dan.   Since it won the game we could pick 2 dan as a better lower
bound guess although since it won we do not have a reasonable upper
bound guess on it's performance except our own credulity.   

Does what I said make any sense?  I am not a go player and I'm not very
comfortable with this guesswork.   In chess, if you beat a player I am
used to thinking in terms of setting a performance rating of around 400
ELO higher for that one game.   I know this is not precise, but I also
think of 400 ELO subtracted from the player you beat as a kind of
estimated lower bound on your strength.  If you beat a 2500 ELO chess
player, it's a relatively safe bet that you are at least 2100 ELO in
strength although technically there is a chance you could lose to
anybody, even a random move generator.

I know this isn't precise language, but how many ranks would give us
around 90 - 95% confidence of superiority?If I beat a 5 dan player,
could you say that it's very likely I am at least 3 dan in strength?

I'm thinking that if we estimate Aoba at 10d amateur and CrazyStone wins
with 8 stone handicap, it is roughly equivalent to beating a 2d player
without handicap and that we can subtract 2 stones to say that with
pretty high confidence CrazyStone is playing at least 1 kyu  (but that's
it's much more likely Crazy Stone is stronger than this - after all it
performed in this one game at least as well as 2d player.) 


- Don




On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 16:28 +0200, Rémi Coulom wrote:
 terry mcintyre wrote:
  Congratulations!

 
 Thanks.
 
  I'm dying for details! What was the time limit?
 
 The organizers asked that the program should play at a constant time (30 
 second) per move. The sgf file contains time stamps (you can see the 
 time with gogui, for instance). I don't know what was her time control, 
 but she apparently played at the same pace as the program.
 
   Did the game end on time or by resignation at move 179? 

 
 She resigned.
 
  The pro was Aoba Kaori, yes? 

 
 Yes.
 
 The only other information I have about the match are these pages in 
 Japanese:
 https://secure1.gakkai-web.net/gakkai/fit/program/html/event/event.html#6
 http://www.ipsj.or.jp/10jigyo/fit/fit2008/events.html#1-4-1
 
 I hope the organizers can send me some photos tomorrow. Then I will set 
 up a web page and tell the list.
 
 Rémi
 ___
 computer-go mailing list
 computer-go@computer-go.org
 http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/

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[EMAIL PROTECTED] (Kato)
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread terry mcintyre
http://senseis.xmp.net/?KGSRatingMath -- this table does include handicap 
stones in the calculations.

 Terry McIntyre [EMAIL PROTECTED]


Go is very hard. The more I learn about it, the less I know. -Jie Li, 9 dan



- Original Message 
 From: terry mcintyre [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 To: computer go computer-go@computer-go.org
 Sent: Thursday, September 4, 2008 11:02:51 AM
 Subject: Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone
 
 This page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_ranks_and_ratings gives a table of 
 win 
 probabilities versus rank differences.
 
 I haven't yet found such a table for handicap games.
 
 Terry McIntyre 
 
 
 Go is very hard. The more I learn about it, the less I know. -Jie Li, 9 dan
 
 
   
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Don Dailey
Here is something interesting from this page:

Note how different the expectations of each system are regarding even
games between players of unequal strength. If you can win 90% of even
games against a 2 kyu player, the AGA believes you are 1.33 ranks
higher, the EGF believes you are 2.42 ranks higher, and the IGS believes
you are 2.80 ranks higher. The lack of agreement stems from a tradition
of playing handicap games between players of different ranks, so there
is a lack of data regarding non-handicap games between mismatched
opponents.

- Don



On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 11:02 -0700, terry mcintyre wrote:
 This page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_ranks_and_ratings gives a table of 
 win probabilities versus rank differences.
 
 I haven't yet found such a table for handicap games.
 
  Terry McIntyre [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 
 
 Go is very hard. The more I learn about it, the less I know. -Jie Li, 9 dan
 
 
   
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RE: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread dave.devos
I'm not surprised that the data for games with 90% winning chances is lacking.
The McMahon pairing system is widely used in western go tournaments to prevent 
mismatched games, 
because most players don't like mismatched games (either as the stronger or the 
weaker player).
 
Rating systems are relatively new in the go world and they don't seem very 
popular (or even known) in the far east where 99% of the go population lives.
So I guess go rating systems are still quite immature:
 
AGA, KGS and EGF all have different conversion functions to map winning 
probability to dan and kyu ranks.
These conversions are probably based on different statistical data sources and 
probably also on other considerations like
calculation convenience and different theoretical considerations of their 
inventors.
 
Dave
 
 
 



Van: [EMAIL PROTECTED] namens Don Dailey
Verzonden: do 4-9-2008 20:55
Aan: computer-go
Onderwerp: Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone



Here is something interesting from this page:

Note how different the expectations of each system are regarding even
games between players of unequal strength. If you can win 90% of even
games against a 2 kyu player, the AGA believes you are 1.33 ranks
higher, the EGF believes you are 2.42 ranks higher, and the IGS believes
you are 2.80 ranks higher. The lack of agreement stems from a tradition
of playing handicap games between players of different ranks, so there
is a lack of data regarding non-handicap games between mismatched
opponents.

- Don



On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 11:02 -0700, terry mcintyre wrote:
 This page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_ranks_and_ratings gives a table of 
 win probabilities versus rank differences.

 I haven't yet found such a table for handicap games.

  Terry McIntyre [EMAIL PROTECTED]


 Go is very hard. The more I learn about it, the less I know. -Jie Li, 9 dan


  
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Re: [computer-go] Kaori-Crazystone

2008-09-04 Thread Petri Pitkanen
2008/9/4 Rémi Coulom [EMAIL PROTECTED]:
 only 5k, so I cannot really tell. But when I see the horrors it plays in
 some games, I suppose it must play much stronger than 1k in some other games
 in order to get a rating of 1k.

 Look for instance at these two games:
 a win: http://files.gokgs.com/games/2008/8/23/CrazyStone-mandelbrot.sgf
 a loss: http://files.gokgs.com/games/2008/8/23/CrazyStone-beoren.sgf
 (with comments of the opponents at the end)

It also shows that some people lose just because they assume that they
can outsmart the bot in any fight regardless how unfavourable is the
start of the fight. Looking these games where humans pull surprise
wins you can often see that they just don't fight for the joy of it
but only when they have some backing.

Leela especially has aggressive style for which opponent getting
carried away by it is pretty easy. And losing those fights is easy as
well.

But as for Semeai problem I think one would need pre-analysis of
situation, in classical program fashion and recognising important
semeias and the directing the search with specialized move generators
for semeai. I guess the term would be importance sampling.

-- 
Petri Pitkänen
e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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