[MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
I was talking to one of my consignors on the phone a couple of days ago, and he mentioned that he thought many prices were down in recent months. Of course, much of this can be attributed to the overall economy. Clearly some people are short on money, and others are just being cautious with their money. Also eBay has made such a mess of their listings that they are likely bringing far fewer new collectors into the hobby than they did in years past. I have been buying and selling collectibles for 44 years now, and *EVERY*time overall prices have been depressed (due to external reasons, like a poor economy, or a massive collection coming on the market), it has proven to be an excellent buying opportunity. I have been looking at WHO is buying the better quality items in my auctions, and who are the underbidders, and it seems like a lot of the most savvy and longest time collectors are doing a lot of buying (or trying to do a lot, but are getting outbid), and that would seem to say that they agree with me and are trying to find bargains while prices are somewhat depressed. I also notice that the prices of much lesser items (those that auction for $1 to $20) are mostly extremely depressed. I attribute this to people being far more selective in what they buy, choosing to pass up items that are in lesser condition or of low desireability, even if they are dirt cheap (and they may be getting to spend the money they would have spent on better items instead). Anyway, I am betting that one more time this will prove to be a time when people look back and think "Why didn't I buy more when many decent items sold for reasonable prices". What do *YOU* think? Bruce Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
My casual tracking seems to indicate there is a slight overall reduction in the $100 and up area of poster collecting -- but that's to be expected under the current economic conditions. The overall reduction doesn't seem terribly steep, however, and certainly there have been plenty of examples where high, and maybe even some record prices, are still being set. Vintage movie posters seems to be holding up better than many other collectibles, where 50% and even 75% price drops have been common. As for the lower-priced posters, it would only be natural they would suffer a drop in demand in tough economic times. If collectors overall have a bit less money to play around with then they did a few years ago, chances are most would opt to bid on fewer items but focus on higher quality items... getting the most bang for the buck as it were. I have seen a few specific posters previously in the $400 to $800 range dip rather dramatically in the last year, but it's hard to tell if that is due to the economy or just the usual ebb and flow for a particular title or style (i.e., most of those who really want that specific poster have acquired one over the last few years and so now a lull in demand has developed -- something that may correct or may not, you never can tell on most titles). And there were some titles 3 or 4 years ago which had become badly over-hyped/over-popular, but now buyers are realizing that there seem to be a lot more these "hot" posters around than they were led to believe (some of the excess in those "hot" titles may, of course, may be fakes). But, yeah, I would say that this is a "buying opportunity" of sorts... not the opportunity of a lifetime or anything, but if you have a particular title or two in mind, you may be able to get somewhat better price right now than you would have 2 or 3 years ago. -- JR Bruce Hershenson wrote: I was talking to one of my consignors on the phone a couple of days ago, and he mentioned that he thought many prices were down in recent months. Of course, much of this can be attributed to the overall economy. Clearly some people are short on money, and others are just being cautious with their money. Also eBay has made such a mess of their listings that they are likely bringing far fewer new collectors into the hobby than they did in years past. I have been buying and selling collectibles for 44 years now, and *EVERY* time overall prices have been depressed (due to external reasons, like a poor economy, or a massive collection coming on the market), it has proven to be an excellent buying opportunity. I have been looking at WHO is buying the better quality items in my auctions, and who are the underbidders, and it seems like a lot of the most savvy and longest time collectors are doing a lot of buying (or trying to do a lot, but are getting outbid), and that would seem to say that they agree with me and are trying to find bargains while prices are somewhat depressed. I also notice that the prices of much lesser items (those that auction for $1 to $20) are mostly extremely depressed. I attribute this to people being far more selective in what they buy, choosing to pass up items that are in lesser condition or of low desireability, even if they are dirt cheap (and they may be getting to spend the money they would have spent on better items instead). Anyway, I am betting that one more time this will prove to be a time when people look back and think "Why didn't I buy more when many decent items sold for reasonable prices". What do *YOU* think? Bruce Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
Excellent reply JR. It amazes me that dozens of MoPo'ers will find time to bicker over the oddest topics, but no one but you and me has any interest or time to post about the current state of poster prices! Bruce On Sun, Aug 23, 2009 at 3:33 AM, James Richard wrote: > My casual tracking seems to indicate there is a slight overall reduction > in the $100 and up area of poster collecting -- but that's to be expected > under the current economic conditions. The overall reduction doesn't seem > terribly steep, however, and certainly there have been plenty of examples > where high, and maybe even some record prices, are still being set. Vintage > movie posters seems to be holding up better than many other collectibles, > where 50% and even 75% price drops have been common. > > As for the lower-priced posters, it would only be natural they would suffer > a drop in demand in tough economic times. If collectors overall have a bit > less money to play around with then they did a few years ago, chances are > most would opt to bid on fewer items but focus on higher quality items... > getting the most bang for the buck as it were. > > I have seen a few specific posters previously in the $400 to $800 range dip > rather dramatically in the last year, but it's hard to tell if that is due > to the economy or just the usual ebb and flow for a particular title or > style (i.e., most of those who really want that specific poster have > acquired one over the last few years and so now a lull in demand has > developed -- something that may correct or may not, you never can tell on > most titles). And there were some titles 3 or 4 years ago which had become > badly over-hyped/over-popular, but now buyers are realizing that there seem > to be a lot more these "hot" posters around than they were led to believe > (some of the excess in those "hot" titles may, of course, may be fakes). > > But, yeah, I would say that this is a "buying opportunity" of sorts... not > the opportunity of a lifetime or anything, but if you have a particular > title or two in mind, you may be able to get somewhat better price right > now than you would have 2 or 3 years ago. > > -- JR > > > Bruce Hershenson wrote: > > I was talking to one of my consignors on the phone a couple of days ago, > and he mentioned that he thought many prices were down in recent months. > > Of course, much of this can be attributed to the overall economy. Clearly > some people are short on money, and others are just being cautious with > their money. Also eBay has made such a mess of their listings that they are > likely bringing far fewer new collectors into the hobby than they did in > years past. > > I have been buying and selling collectibles for 44 years now, and *EVERY*time > overall prices have been depressed (due to external reasons, like a > poor economy, or a massive collection coming on the market), it has proven > to be an excellent buying opportunity. > > I have been looking at WHO is buying the better quality items in my > auctions, and who are the underbidders, and it seems like a lot of the most > savvy and longest time collectors are doing a lot of buying (or trying to do > a lot, but are getting outbid), and that would seem to say that they agree > with me and are trying to find bargains while prices are somewhat depressed. > > I also notice that the prices of much lesser items (those that auction for > $1 to $20) are mostly extremely depressed. I attribute this to people being > far more selective in what they buy, choosing to pass up items that are in > lesser condition or of low desireability, even if they are dirt cheap (and > they may be getting to spend the money they would have spent on better items > instead). > > Anyway, I am betting that one more time this will prove to be a time when > people look back and think "Why didn't I buy more when many decent items > sold for reasonable prices". > > What do *YOU* think? > > Bruce > > Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for over the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program that answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. I use your sales results database all of the time -- it kicks ass. And its very obvious that the posters that I personally have been looking at are down (way down). However that doesn't really mean that: 1) all posters in a particular price range are down (it may be just low end crappy 1940s and 1950s posters I tend to buy) 2) the prices are depressed because of the economy (as there seems to be a huge supply of posters being auctioned every week, perhaps way more than the market can sustain) 3) the pieces which are currently down are ever coming back up (I love the movie "Father Goose", but I don't expect it to sell for $100 again in my lifetime). The problem with using anecdotal evidence is that people only point to specific posters which support their claim. And, if you make a claim, people will point to some outlier which contridicts (the Librianna effect). The first challenge is to find a meaningful partitioning of the data which shows some meaningful demonstratable trend. For example, I would believe the statement "Non spectacular 1950s 1-sheets for A movies with top stars who were in their primes in the 1940s are down 50%". I would believe the statement that "Ugly posters from bad movies in the 1970s are worthless and should be discarded". However, I would not believe the statuement that "All 1970s posters are down 25%". Finding such a partition would have to be difficult (not to mention difficult to code). The second challenge is to find a way to analyze so little data. If all posters were in the same condition, and offered regularly the analysis would be easy. However, how do you compare sales of a G- poster (with free book) to a NM copy? I don't believe that there is a standard formula to predict the sale price based on condition (although Jon Warren thought there was one in 1986!). Even if there was some magic formula (e.g., VG = 75% NM), I doubt that it works across all decades. The third challenge is to agree on some reasonable definition of 'Value' so that we can compare results across different venues. Value has to be defined as what the seller will receive for the peice (not what the buyer will pay), as all of the venues charge differently for their services. For example if eMovieposter sells a poster for $15 (the seller get 40% or $6) and if HA.com sells it for $15 (a $1 bid plus $14 BP, the seller get $0.85) on eBay the number is somewhere in the middle. As a result, it makes little sense to use data from one of these sites which is outside that sites sweet spot! For eMovieposter its atlesast $50, for HA its at least $75. The issue here is that the overhead dominates the cost of the transaction and the value will not be correct. Let me know what you find! Evan - Original Message - From: "Bruce Hershenson" To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Sent: Saturday, August 22, 2009 7:44:24 AM GMT -07:00 US/Canada Mountain Subject: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? I was talking to one of my consignors on the phone a couple of days ago, and he mentioned that he thought many prices were down in recent months. Of course, much of this can be attributed to the overall economy. Clearly some people are short on money, and others are just being cautious with their money. Also eBay has made such a mess of their listings that they are likely bringing far fewer new collectors into the hobby than they did in years past. I have been buying and selling collectibles for 44 years now, and EVERY time overall prices have been depressed (due to external reasons, like a poor economy, or a massive collection coming on the market), it has proven to be an excellent buying opportunity. I have been looking at WHO is buying the better quality items in my auctions, and who are the underbidders, and it seems like a lot of the most savvy and longest time collectors are doing a lot of buying (or trying to do a lot, but are getting outbid), and that would seem to say that they agree with me and are trying to find bargains while prices are somewhat depressed. I also notice that the prices of much lesser items (those that auction for $1 to $20) are mostly extremely depressed. I attribute this to people being far more selective in what they buy, choosing to pass up items that are in lesser condition or of low desireability, even if they are dirt cheap (and they may be getting to spend the money they would have spent on better items instead). Anyway, I am betting that one more time this will prove to be a time when people look back and think "Why didn't I buy more when many decent items sold for reasona
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
Great analysis, Evan. I completely agree that the "cost of selling" is an important consideration in looking at results. If you consign an item and it "sells" for $15, but you received 85 cents for it, then did you sell it for $15, or for 85 cents? One factor not mentioned to this point is the *HUGE* postal price increases the past few years, especially on international shipments. There are many items that auction for $2 because the shipping cost to the person who loves it is $20 or $30 or $40, so they can't justify bidding $3, even though they would gladly pay $10 for the item, but they can't because of the cost of shipping to them. Bruce On Sun, Aug 23, 2009 at 10:50 AM, wrote: > > I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for > over the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program > that answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. > > I use your sales results database all of the time -- it kicks ass. And its > very obvious that the posters that I personally have been looking at are > down (way down). However that doesn't really mean that: > >1) all posters in a particular price range are down (it may be just low > end crappy 1940s and 1950s posters I tend to buy) >2) the prices are depressed because of the economy (as there seems to be > a huge supply of posters being auctioned every week, perhaps way more than > the market can sustain) >3) the pieces which are currently down are ever coming back up (I love > the movie "Father Goose", but I don't expect it to sell for $100 again in my > lifetime). > > The problem with using anecdotal evidence is that people only point to > specific posters which support their claim. And, if you make a claim, > people will point to some outlier which contridicts (the Librianna effect). > > The first challenge is to find a meaningful partitioning of the data which > shows some meaningful demonstratable trend. For example, I would believe > the statement "Non spectacular 1950s 1-sheets for A movies with top stars > who were in their primes in the 1940s are down 50%". I would believe the > statement that "Ugly posters from bad movies in the 1970s are worthless and > should be discarded". However, I would not believe the statuement that "All > 1970s posters are down 25%". Finding such a partition would have to be > difficult (not to mention difficult to code). > > The second challenge is to find a way to analyze so little data. If all > posters were in the same condition, and offered regularly the analysis would > be easy. However, how do you compare sales of a G- poster (with free book) > to a NM copy? I don't believe that there is a standard formula to predict > the sale price based on condition (although Jon Warren thought there was one > in 1986!). Even if there was some magic formula (e.g., VG = 75% NM), I doubt > that it works across all decades. > > The third challenge is to agree on some reasonable definition of 'Value' so > that we can compare results across different venues. Value has to be > defined as what the seller will receive for the peice (not what the buyer > will pay), as all of the venues charge differently for their services. For > example if eMovieposter sells a poster for $15 (the seller get 40% or $6) > and if HA.com sells it for $15 (a $1 bid plus $14 BP, the seller get $0.85) > on eBay the number is somewhere in the middle. As a result, it makes little > sense to use data from one of these sites which is outside that sites sweet > spot! For eMovieposter its atlesast $50, for HA its at least $75. The issue > here is that the overhead dominates the cost of the transaction and the > value will not be correct. > > Let me know what you find! > > Evan > > - Original Message - > From: "Bruce Hershenson" > To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU > Sent: Saturday, August 22, 2009 7:44:24 AM GMT -07:00 US/Canada Mountain > Subject: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? > > > I was talking to one of my consignors on the phone a couple of days ago, > and he mentioned that he thought many prices were down in recent months. > > Of course, much of this can be attributed to the overall economy. Clearly > some people are short on money, and others are just being cautious with > their money. Also eBay has made such a mess of their listings that they are > likely bringing far fewer new collectors into the hobby than they did in > years past. > > I have been buying and selling collectibles for 44 years now, and EVERY > time overall prices have been depressed (due to external reasons, like a > poor economy, or a massive collection coming on the mar
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for over the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program that answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. I use your sales results database all of the time -- the problem is that THERE IS NO COMPREHENSIVE CURRENT PRICE DATA BASES. of course, bruce has HIS, heritage has THEIRS, and icollectmovieposters tries to give both bruce's & heritages, and some ebay. BECAUSE DIFFERENT VENUES ACHIEVE DIFFERENT PRICES..you must bid accordingly in the particular venue,? moreover, dealer prices?on the internet seem to be the highest. by way of example..i?purchased an orig THE SPIRAL STAIRCASE on ebay about 2 years ago for about 190.00.? it had been on my want list for some time.? also,?i wanted the half sheets.? check out what i bought recently---$47 with postage, and compare it to the heritage poster being sold tonight: my poster from ebay (in better condition than it appearsbright bold colors):? ??http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=320407991093 i wouldn't sell it for 200!!!? in fact, i would love to get the other half sheet style.? i love ethel barrymore's role in this film. heritage's poster ending tonight.and it is certainly worth OVER 200/250 ? http://movieposters.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=59084&Lot_No=54375 and there is a british seller that has it on his website for 200. THE POINT IS THAT DIFFERENT VENUES GET DIFFERENT PRICES. michael Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
I'm not a dealler as such but I think it's safe to say they are depressed due to recessions globally (No brainer) - Here in the UK were facing the worst recession for over 100 years according to the Independant newspaper which is admirable as far as newspapers go. People will be buying though, just not as many, it may even be that people with lots of disposable income are buying more. Personally, I am on a hold from purchasing movie posters due to suffering 2 job losses within 6 months - A new phase of experience for myself being in a job for 14 years previously. I just need to save everything I have to pay for the mortgage. I've even stopped smoking normal cigarettes and have moved onto roll ups (and i don't mean the whacky stuff) Times are rock bottom for some, have to keep your chin up though and plod on, don't let it get you down if you are a fellow sufferer, 2 years time and we'll be thinking what was all the fuss about. If you are suffering as a dealer, you really need to contact me and get your business added on The Movie Poster Forum, new members are signing up every day, the forum also gets very high page impressions (And I mean Impressions, not hits) - There is only one space left so act quickly, I can also put you on a waiting list if the space fills. Sorry, that didn't mean to turn into a sales pitch, you know me, I have a tendancy to think of others before myself ;-) Andy www.movieposterforum.com > Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2009 15:50:17 + > From: evanzwei...@comcast.net > Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? > To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU > > I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for over > the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program that > answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. > > I use your sales results database all of the time -- it kicks ass. And its > very obvious that the posters that I personally have been looking at are down > (way down). However that doesn't really mean that: > > 1) all posters in a particular price range are down (it may be just low > end crappy 1940s and 1950s posters I tend to buy) > 2) the prices are depressed because of the economy (as there seems to be > a huge supply of posters being auctioned every week, perhaps way more than > the market can sustain) > 3) the pieces which are currently down are ever coming back up (I love > the movie "Father Goose", but I don't expect it to sell for $100 again in my > lifetime). > > The problem with using anecdotal evidence is that people only point to > specific posters which support their claim. And, if you make a claim, people > will point to some outlier which contridicts (the Librianna effect). > > The first challenge is to find a meaningful partitioning of the data which > shows some meaningful demonstratable trend. For example, I would believe the > statement "Non spectacular 1950s 1-sheets for A movies with top stars who > were in their primes in the 1940s are down 50%". I would believe the > statement that "Ugly posters from bad movies in the 1970s are worthless and > should be discarded". However, I would not believe the statuement that "All > 1970s posters are down 25%". Finding such a partition would have to be > difficult (not to mention difficult to code). > > The second challenge is to find a way to analyze so little data. If all > posters were in the same condition, and offered regularly the analysis would > be easy. However, how do you compare sales of a G- poster (with free book) > to a NM copy? I don't believe that there is a standard formula to predict > the sale price based on condition (although Jon Warren thought there was one > in 1986!). Even if there was some magic formula (e.g., VG = 75% NM), I doubt > that it works across all decades. > > The third challenge is to agree on some reasonable definition of 'Value' so > that we can compare results across different venues. Value has to be defined > as what the seller will receive for the peice (not what the buyer will pay), > as all of the venues charge differently for their services. For example if > eMovieposter sells a poster for $15 (the seller get 40% or $6) and if HA.com > sells it for $15 (a $1 bid plus $14 BP, the seller get $0.85) on eBay the > number is somewhere in the middle. As a result, it makes little sense to use > data from one of these sites which is outside that sites sweet spot! For > eMovieposter its atlesast $50, for HA its at least $75. The issue here is > that the overhead dominates the cost of the transaction and the value will > not be correct. > > Let me know what you f
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
Michael, in your example you're also comparing a red delicious to a granny smith - a folded poster to a rolled poster. I know there have been several instances where for my own collection I have turned down folded examples of halves or inserts to wait for a rolled piece (especially on lower demand titles). But really the state of poster prices is this: If you find something you really, really want and haven't seen in a long time - the price is not depressed. If you find something that is available all the time and you a) already have a copy or b) are on the fence whether you should get it or not - the price is depressed. Personally, I've added more to my own collection this year than I have in the past two years combined and while I don't know if the material became available due to worldwide recession and the seller didn't have any peanut butter and jelly to eat or tried to pay his rent with movie posters, or just due to the cycle of the collecting market, I do know that competition has been there and if sell a truly rare and desirable item strong prices will ensue. (as long as the item is not a heavily restored fake disguised as an original, that is.) _ From: MoPo List [mailto:mop...@listserv.american.edu] On Behalf Of Michael B Sent: Sunday, August 23, 2009 12:17 PM To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for over the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program that answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. I use your sales results database all of the time -- the problem is that THERE IS NO COMPREHENSIVE CURRENT PRICE DATA BASES. of course, bruce has HIS, heritage has THEIRS, and icollectmovieposters tries to give both bruce's & heritages, and some ebay. BECAUSE DIFFERENT VENUES ACHIEVE DIFFERENT PRICES..you must bid accordingly in the particular venue, moreover, dealer prices on the internet seem to be the highest. by way of example..i purchased an orig THE SPIRAL STAIRCASE on ebay about 2 years ago for about 190.00. it had been on my want list for some time. also, i wanted the half sheets. check out what i bought recently---$47 with postage, and compare it to the heritage poster being sold tonight: my poster from ebay (in better condition than it appearsbright bold colors):http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem <http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=320407991093> &item=320407991093 i wouldn't sell it for 200!!! in fact, i would love to get the other half sheet style. i love ethel barrymore's role in this film. heritage's poster ending tonight.and it is certainly worth OVER 200/250 http://movieposters.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=59084 <http://movieposters.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=59084&Lot_No=54375> &Lot_No=54375 and there is a british seller that has it on his website for 200. THE POINT IS THAT DIFFERENT VENUES GET DIFFERENT PRICES. michael Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content. Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
rolled posters generally should AND DO get more $$$, but look at the 2 posters and consider the rarity. what would you prefermine for 47.00 with postage or heritage's for whatever it sells formaybe 250+ with postage and commissions? my poster is cleaner and with less wrinkles that the heritage poster. and i state.heritage's poster is worth 250. has i not purchased mine, i would have sniped heritage's poster at 210 (so with the commission and postage, i would have paid arounf 260). however, i sense that there are buyers/collectors that do not look at heritage's site. the one in london i referred to is heavily soiled, so i never purchased it... it would have cost 200+++ with shipping. it has been on their website for over 2 years. michael -Original Message- From: Sean Linkenback To: dialmbb...@aol.com; MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Sent: Sun, Aug 23, 2009 12:40 pm Subject: RE: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? Michael, in your example you’re also comparing a red delicious to a granny smith – a folded poster to a rolled poster. I know there have been several instances where for my own collection I have turned down folded examples of halves or inserts to wait for a rolled piece (especially on lower demand titles). But really the state of poster prices is this: If you find something you really, really want and haven’t seen in a long time – the price is not depressed. If you find something that is available all the time and you a) already have a copy or b) are on the fence whether you should get it or not – the price is depressed. Personally, I’ve added more to my own collection this year than I have in the past two years combined and while I don’t know if the material became available due to worldwide recession and the seller didn’t have any peanut butter and jelly to eat or tried to pay his rent with movie posters, or just due to the cycle of the collecting market, I do know that competition has been there and if sell a truly rare and desirable item strong prices will ensue. (as long as the item is not a heavily restored fake disguised as an original, that is.) From: MoPo List [mailto:mop...@listserv.american.edu] On Behalf Of Michael B Sent: Sunday, August 23, 2009 12:17 PM To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for over the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program that answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. I use your sales results database all of the time -- the problem is that THERE IS NO COMPREHENSIVE CURRENT PRICE DATA BASES. of course, bruce has HIS, heritage has THEIRS, and icollectmovieposters tries to gi ve both bruce's & heritages, and some ebay. BECAUSE DIFFERENT VENUES ACHIEVE DIFFERENT PRICES..you must bid accordingly in the particular venue, moreover, dealer prices on the internet seem to be the highest. by way of example..i purchased an orig THE SPIRAL STAIRCASE on ebay about 2 years ago for about 190.00. it had been on my want list for some time. also, i wanted the half sheets. check out what i bought recently---$47 with postage, and compare it to the heritage poster being sold tonight: my poster from ebay (in better condition than it appearsbright bold colors): http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=320407991093 i wouldn't sell it for 200!!! in fact, i would love to get the other half sheet style. i love ethel barrymore's role in this film. heritage's poster ending tonight.and it is certainly worth OVER 200/250 http://movieposters.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=59084&Lot_No=54375 and there is a british seller that has it on his website for 200. THE POINT IS THAT DIFFERENT VENUES GET DIFFERENT PRICES. michael Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the=2 0BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content. Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
Well the Heritage copy isn't "worth" $250 yet - as it hasn't sold for that price yet (though it may very well). As for which I prefer - I will again state that I will take the rolled poster over the folded one. While it's not fair to compare the coloring on the two (the Heritage copy appears to have much richer colors, but that could be better lighting), I would certainly take a copy that is rolled with some corner smudging over a folded copy with tape stains. The rolled copy could easily be cleaned and NM without backing, while the folded copy would have to be backed and airbrushed to look the same as the rolled copy. But that's just me, and I know my tastes aren't for everyone - that's what makes this hobby fun and uniquely rewarding for each collector. _ From: dialmbb...@aol.com [mailto:dialmbb...@aol.com] Sent: Sunday, August 23, 2009 12:53 PM To: slinkenb...@comcast.net; MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? rolled posters generally should AND DO get more $$$, but look at the 2 posters and consider the rarity. what would you prefermine for 47.00 with postage or heritage's for whatever it sells formaybe 250+ with postage and commissions? my poster is cleaner and with less wrinkles that the heritage poster. and i state.heritage's poster is worth 250. has i not purchased mine, i would have sniped heritage's poster at 210 (so with the commission and postage, i would have paid arounf 260). however, i sense that there are buyers/collectors that do not look at heritage's site. the one in london i referred to is heavily soiled, so i never purchased it... it would have cost 200+++ with shipping. it has been on their website for over 2 years. michael -Original Message- From: Sean Linkenback To: dialmbb...@aol.com; MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Sent: Sun, Aug 23, 2009 12:40 pm Subject: RE: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? Michael, in your example you're also comparing a red delicious to a granny smith - a folded poster to a rolled poster. I know there have been several instances where for my own collection I have turned down folded examples of halves or inserts to wait for a rolled piece (especially on lower demand titles). But really the state of poster prices is this: If you find something you really, really want and haven't seen in a long time - the price is not depressed. If you find something that is available all the time and you a) already have a copy or b) are on the fence whether you should get it or not - the price is depressed. Personally, I've added more to my own collection this year than I have in the past two years combined and while I do n't know if the material became available due to worldwide recession and the seller didn't have any peanut butter and jelly to eat or tried to pay his rent with movie posters, or just due to the cycle of the collecting market, I do know that competition has been there and if sell a truly rare and desirable item strong prices will ensue. (as long as the item is not a heavily restored fake disguised as an original, that is.) _ From: MoPo List [mailto:mop...@listserv.american.edu] On Behalf Of Michael B Sent: Sunday, August 23, 2009 12:17 PM To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for over the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program that answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. I use your sales results database all of the time -- the problem is that THERE IS=2 0NO COMPREHENSIVE CURRENT PRICE DATA BASES. of course, bruce has HIS, heritage has THEIRS, and icollectmovieposters tries to give both bruce's & heritages, and some ebay. BECAUSE DIFFERENT VENUES ACHIEVE DIFFERENT PRICES..you must bid accordingly in the particular venue, moreover, dealer prices on the internet seem to be the highest. by way of example..i purchased an orig THE SPIRAL STAIRCASE on ebay about 2 years ago for about 190.00. it had been on my want list for some time. also, i wanted the half sheets. check out what i bought recently---$47 with postage, and compare it to the heritage poster being sold tonight: my poster from ebay (in better condition than it appearsbright bold colors):http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=320407991093 i wouldn't sell it for 200!!! in fact, i would love to get the other half sheet style. i love ethel barrymore's role in this film. heritage's poster ending tonight.and it is certainly worth OVER 200/250 http://movieposters.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=59084&Lot_No=54375 and there is a british seller that has it on his website for 200.
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
there are no strict rules. the following is a synopsis of a post i made 8 months ago. i had purchased a half sheet of GENTLEMAN'S AGREEMENT from a dealer. it was folded in quarters, and all defects were known. No surprises. i paid 150 net. 3/4 months later, on ebay i purchased the same rolled half sheet for about 51.00. this rolled poster had substantial fading. i resold it on ebay to a single bidder in its second go-around for 49.99. i described the fading. the rolled poster looked HORRIBLE next to my folded one. (it is framed in my collection, just below THE STRANGER, rare style A that i got from heritage about 8 months ago.) rolled is GREAT..BUT-all comparisons should be taken on a case by case basis. michael -Original Message- From: Sean Linkenback To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Sent: Sun, Aug 23, 2009 1:26 pm Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? Well the Heritage copy isn’t “worth” $250 yet – as it hasn’t sold for that price yet (though it may very well). As for which I prefer – I will again state that I will take the rolled poster over the folded one. While it’s not fair to compare the coloring on the two (the Heritage copy appears to have much richer colors, but that could be better lighting), I would certainly take a copy that is rolled with some corner smudging over a folded copy with tape stains. The rolled copy could easily be cleaned and NM without backing, while the folded copy would have to be backed and airbrushed to look the same as the rolled copy. But that’s just me, and I know my tastes aren’t for everyone – that’s what makes this hobby fun and uniquely rewarding for each collector. From: dialmbb...@aol.com [mailto:dialmbb...@aol.com] Sent: Sunday, August 23, 2009 12:53 PM To: slinkenb...@comcast.net; MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? rolled posters generally should AND DO get more $$$, but look at the 2 posters and consider the rarity. what would you prefermine for 47.00 with postage or heritage's for whatever it sells formaybe 250+ with postage and commissions? my poster is cleaner and with less wrinkles that the heritage poster. and i state.heritage's poster is worth 250. has i not purchased mine, i would have sniped heritage's poster at 210 (so with the commission and postage, i would have paid arounf 260). however, i sense that there are buyers/collectors that do not look at heritage's site. the one in london i referred to is heavily soiled, so i never purchased it... it would have cost 200+++ with shipping. it has been on their website for over 2 years. michael -Original Message- From: Sean Linkenback To: dialmbbmbb@ AOL.COM; MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Sent: Sun, Aug 23, 2009 12:40 pm Subject: RE: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? Michael, in your example you’re also comparing a red delicious to a granny smith – a folded poster to a rolled poster. I know there have been several instances where for my own collection I have turned down folded examples of halves or inserts to wait for a rolled piece (especially on lower demand titles). But really the state of poster prices is this: If you find something you really, really want and haven’t seen in a long time – the price is not depressed. If you find something that is available all the time and you a) already have a copy or b) are on the fence whether you should get it or not – the price is depressed. Personally, I’ve added more to my own collection this year than I have in the past two years combined and while I do n’t know if the material became available due to worldwide recession and the seller didn’t have any peanut butter and jelly to eat or tried to pay his rent with movie posters, or just due to the cycle of the collecting market, I do know that competition has been there and if sell a truly rare and desirable item strong prices will ensue. (as long as the item is not a heavily restored fake disguised as an original, that is.) From: MoPo List [mailto:mop...@listserv.american.edu] On Beha lf Of Michael B Sent: Sunday, August 23, 2009 12:17 PM To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for over the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program that answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. I use your sales results database all of the time -- the problem is that THERE IS=2 0NO COMPREHENSIVE CURRENT PRICE DATA BASES. of course, bruce has HIS, heritage has THEIRS, and icollectmovieposters tries to give both bruce's & heritages, and some ebay. BECAUSE DIFFERENT VENUES ACHIEVE DIFFERENT PRICES
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
You are referencing "Bruce's First Law" of poster collecting: If you WANT an item, everyone else wants it too, and it is hard to find, and the price is sky-high when you finally *DO* find it but if you have an item to *SELL *(or auction) then nobody wants it, and the price is depressed, and/or someone just made a warehouse find of them or one just sold for next-to-nothing, etc, etc. Bruce On Sun, Aug 23, 2009 at 12:26 PM, Sean Linkenback wrote: > Well the Heritage copy isn’t “worth” $250 yet – as it hasn’t sold for > that price yet (though it may very well). > > > > As for which I prefer – I will again state that I will take the rolled > poster over the folded one. > > While it’s not fair to compare the coloring on the two (the Heritage copy > appears to have much richer colors, but that could be better lighting), I > would certainly take a copy that is rolled with some corner smudging over a > folded copy with tape stains. The rolled copy could easily be cleaned and > NM without backing, while the folded copy would have to be backed and > airbrushed to look the same as the rolled copy. > > But that’s just me, and I know my tastes aren’t for everyone – that’s what > makes this hobby fun and uniquely rewarding for each collector. > > > > > -- > > *From:* dialmbb...@aol.com [mailto:dialmbb...@aol.com] > *Sent:* Sunday, August 23, 2009 12:53 PM > *To:* slinkenb...@comcast.net; MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU > > *Subject:* Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? > > > > rolled posters generally should AND DO get more $$$, but look at the 2 > posters and consider the rarity. what would you prefermine for > 47.00 with postage or heritage's for whatever it sells formaybe 250+ > with postage and commissions? my poster is cleaner and with less wrinkles > that the heritage poster. and i state.heritage's poster is worth > 250. has i not purchased mine, i would have sniped heritage's poster at > 210 (so with the commission and postage, i would have paid arounf 260). > however, i sense that there are buyers/collectors that do not look at > heritage's site. > > > > the one in london i referred to is heavily soiled, so i never purchased > it... it would have cost 200+++ with shipping. it has been on their > website for over 2 years. > > > > michael > > > -Original Message- > From: Sean Linkenback > To: dialmbb...@aol.com; MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU > Sent: Sun, Aug 23, 2009 12:40 pm > Subject: RE: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? > > Michael, in your example you’re also comparing a red delicious to a granny > smith – a folded poster to a rolled poster. > > I know there have been several instances where for my own collection I have > turned down folded examples of halves or inserts to wait for a rolled piece > (especially on lower demand titles). > > > > But really the state of poster prices is this: > > If you find something you really, really want and haven’t seen in a long > time – the price is not depressed. > > If you find something that is available all the time and you a) already > have a copy or b) are on the fence whether you should get it or not – the > price is depressed. > > > > Personally, I’ve added more to my own collection this year than I have in > the past two years combined and while I do n’t know if the material became > available due to worldwide recession and the seller didn’t have any peanut > butter and jelly to eat or tried to pay his rent with movie posters, or just > due to the cycle of the collecting market, I do know that competition has > been there and if sell a truly rare and desirable item strong prices will > ensue. > > (as long as the item is not a heavily restored fake disguised as an > original, that is.) > > > -- > > *From:* MoPo List [mailto:mop...@listserv.american.edu] *On Behalf Of *Michael > B > *Sent:* Sunday, August 23, 2009 12:17 PM > *To:* MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU > *Subject:* Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? > > > > > > I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for over > the > > last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program that answered > > this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. > > > > I use your sales results database all of the time -- > > > > > the problem is that THERE IS=2 0NO COMPREHENSIVE CURRENT PRICE DATA BASES. > > > > of course, bruce has HIS, heritage has THEIRS, and icollectmovieposters > tries to give both bruce's & heritages, and some ebay. > > > > BEC
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
I don't know about poster prices but I'm depressed!
One day left to go for my big lot of posters... 149 page views, 7 watchers, no
offers yet... priceless!
http://cgi.ebay.com/70-Vintage-Movie-Posters-for-one-Price-30s-40s-50s_W0QQitemZ230368532940QQcmdZViewItemQQptZLH_DefaultDomain_0?hash=item35a308d9cc&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14
best -
Glenn
- Original Message -
From: Bruce Hershenson
To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU
Sent: Sunday, August 23, 2009 11:52 AM
Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
You are referencing "Bruce's First Law" of poster collecting:
If you WANT an item, everyone else wants it too, and it is hard to find, and
the price is sky-high when you finally DO find it
but if you have an item to SELL (or auction) then nobody wants it, and the
price is depressed, and/or someone just made a warehouse find of them or one
just sold for next-to-nothing, etc, etc.
Bruce
On Sun, Aug 23, 2009 at 12:26 PM, Sean Linkenback
wrote:
Well the Heritage copy isn’t “worth” $250 yet – as it hasn’t sold for that
price yet (though it may very well).
As for which I prefer – I will again state that I will take the rolled
poster over the folded one.
While it’s not fair to compare the coloring on the two (the Heritage copy
appears to have much richer colors, but that could be better lighting), I would
certainly take a copy that is rolled with some corner smudging over a folded
copy with tape stains. The rolled copy could easily be cleaned and NM without
backing, while the folded copy would have to be backed and airbrushed to look
the same as the rolled copy.
But that’s just me, and I know my tastes aren’t for everyone – that’s what
makes this hobby fun and uniquely rewarding for each collector.
From: dialmbb...@aol.com [mailto:dialmbb...@aol.com]
Sent: Sunday, August 23, 2009 12:53 PM
To: slinkenb...@comcast.net; MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU
Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
rolled posters generally should AND DO get more $$$, but look at the 2
posters and consider the rarity. what would you prefermine for
47.00 with postage or heritage's for whatever it sells formaybe 250+ with
postage and commissions? my poster is cleaner and with less wrinkles that the
heritage poster. and i state.heritage's poster is worth 250. has i
not purchased mine, i would have sniped heritage's poster at 210 (so with the
commission and postage, i would have paid arounf 260). however, i sense that
there are buyers/collectors that do not look at heritage's site.
the one in london i referred to is heavily soiled, so i never purchased
it... it would have cost 200+++ with shipping. it has been on their
website for over 2 years.
michael
-Original Message-
From: Sean Linkenback
To: dialmbb...@aol.com; MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU
Sent: Sun, Aug 23, 2009 12:40 pm
Subject: RE: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
Michael, in your example you’re also comparing a red delicious to a granny
smith – a folded poster to a rolled poster.
I know there have been several instances where for my own collection I have
turned down folded examples of halves or inserts to wait for a rolled piece
(especially on lower demand titles).
But really the state of poster prices is this:
If you find something you really, really want and haven’t seen in a long
time – the price is not depressed.
If you find something that is available all the time and you a) already
have a copy or b) are on the fence whether you should get it or not – the price
is depressed.
Personally, I’ve added more to my own collection this year than I have in
the past two years combined and while I do n’t know if the material became
available due to worldwide recession and the seller didn’t have any peanut
butter and jelly to eat or tried to pay his rent with movie posters, or just
due to the cycle of the collecting market, I do know that competition has been
there and if sell a truly rare and desirable item strong prices will ensue.
(as long as the item is not a heavily restored fake disguised as an
original, that is.)
From: MoPo List [mailto:mop...@listserv.american.edu] On Behalf Of Michael B
Sent: Sunday, August 23, 2009 12:17 PM
To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU
Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for over
the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program that
answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. I use your
sales results database all of the time --
the problem is tha
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
g anecdotal evidence is that people only point to specific posters which support their claim. And, if you make a claim, people will point to some outlier which contridicts (the Librianna effect). The first challenge is to find a meaningful partitioning of the data which shows some meaningful demonstratable trend. For example, I would believe the statement "Non spectacular 1950s 1-sheets for A movies with top stars who were in their primes in the 1940s are down 50%". I would believe the statement that "Ugly posters from bad movies in the 1970s are worthless and should be discarded". However, I would not believe the statuement that "All 1970s posters are down 25%". Finding such a partition would have to be difficult (not to mention difficult to code). The second challenge is to find a way to analyze so little data. If all posters were in the same condition, and offered regularly the analysis would be easy. However, how do you compare sales of a G- poster (with free book) to a NM copy? I don't believe that there is a standard formula to predict the sale price based on condition (although Jon Warren thought there was one in 1986!). Even if there was some magic formula (e.g., VG = 75% NM), I doubt that it works across all decades. The third challenge is to agree on some reasonable definition of 'Value' so that we can compare results across different venues. Value has to be defined as what the seller will receive for the peice (not what the buyer will pay), as all of the venues charge differently for their services. For example if eMovieposter sells a poster for $15 (the seller get 40% or $6) and if HA.com sells it for $15 (a $1 bid plus $14 BP, the seller get $0.85) on eBay the number is somewhere in the middle. As a result, it makes little sense to use data from one of these sites which is outside that sites sweet spot! For eMovieposter its atlesast $50, for HA its at least $75. The issue here is that the overhead dominates the cost of the transaction and the value will not be correct. Let me know what you find! Evan - Original Message - From: "Bruce Hershenson" <<mailto:brucehershen...@gmail.com>brucehershen...@gmail.com> To: <mailto:MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU>MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Sent: Saturday, August 22, 2009 7:44:24 AM GMT -07:00 US/Canada Mountain Subject: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? I was talking to one of my consignors on the phone a couple of days ago, and he mentioned that he thought many prices were down in recent months. Of course, much of this can be attributed to the overall economy. Clearly some people are short on money, and others are just being cautious with their money. Also eBay has made such a mess of their listings that they are likely bringing far fewer new collectors into the hobby than they did in years past. I have been buying and selling collectibles for 44 years now, and EVERY time overall prices have been depressed (due to external reasons, like a poor economy, or a massive collection coming on the market), it has proven to be an excellent buying opportunity. I have been looking at WHO is buying the better quality items in my auctions, and who are the underbidders, and it seems like a lot of the most savvy and longest time collectors are doing a lot of buying (or trying to do a lot, but are getting outbid), and that would seem to say that they agree with me and are trying to find bargains while prices are somewhat depressed. I also notice that the prices of much lesser items (those that auction for $1 to $20) are mostly extremely depressed. I attribute this to people being far more selective in what they buy, choosing to pass up items that are in lesser condition or of low desireability, even if they are dirt cheap (and they may be getting to spend the money they would have spent on better items instead). Anyway, I am betting that one more time this will prove to be a time when people look back and think "Why didn't I buy more when many decent items sold for reasonable prices". What do YOU think? Bruce Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at <http://www.filmfan.com/>www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: <mailto:lists...@listserv.american.edu>lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content. Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content. Visit the Mo
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
I've even stopped smoking normal cigarettes and have moved onto roll ups (and i don't mean the whacky stuff) you have my sympathies Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
at was a smart ass answer. Sorry. > > I use your sales results database all of the time -- it kicks ass. And its > very obvious that the posters that I personally have been looking at are > down (way down). However that doesn't really mean that: > >1) all posters in a particular price range are down (it may be just low > end crappy 1940s and 1950s posters I tend to buy) >2) the prices are depressed because of the economy (as there seems to be > a huge supply of posters being auctioned every week, perhaps way more than > the market can sustain) >3) the pieces which are currently down are ever coming back up (I love > the movie "Father Goose", but I don't expect it to sell for $100 again in my > lifetime). > > The problem with using anecdotal evidence is that people only point to > specific posters which support their claim. And, if you make a claim, > people will point to some outlier which contridicts (the Librianna effect). > > The first challenge is to find a meaningful partitioning of the data which > shows some meaningful demonstratable trend. For example, I would believe > the statement "Non spectacular 1950s 1-sheets for A movies with top stars > who were in their primes in the 1940s are down 50%". I would believe the > statement that "Ugly posters from bad movies in the 1970s are worthless and > should be discarded". However, I would not believe the statuement that "All > 1970s posters are down 25%". Finding such a partition would have to be > difficult (not to mention difficult to code). > > The second challenge is to find a way to analyze so little data. If all > posters were in the same condition, and offered regularly the analysis would > be easy. However, how do you compare sales of a G- poster (with free book) > to a NM copy? I don't believe that there is a standard formula to predict > the sale price based on condition (although Jon Warren thought there was one > in 1986!). Even if there was some magic formula (e.g., VG = 75% NM), I doubt > that it works across all decades. > > The third challenge is to agree on some reasonable definition of 'Value' so > that we can compare results across different venues. Value has to be > defined as what the seller will receive for the peice (not what the buyer > will pay), as all of the venues charge differently for their services. For > example if eMovieposter sells a poster for $15 (the seller get 40% or $6) > and if HA.com sells it for $15 (a $1 bid plus $14 BP, the seller get $0.85) > on eBay the number is somewhere in the middle. As a result, it makes little > sense to use data from one of these sites which is outside that sites sweet > spot! For eMovieposter its atlesast $50, for HA its at least $75. The issue > here is that the overhead dominates the cost of the transaction and the > value will not be correct. > > Let me know what you find! > > Evan > > - Original Message - > From: "Bruce Hershenson" < brucehershen...@gmail.com> > To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU > Sent: Saturday, August 22, 2009 7:44:24 AM GMT -07:00 US/Canada Mountain > Subject: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? > > > I was talking to one of my consignors on the phone a couple of days ago, > and he mentioned that he thought many prices were down in recent months. > > Of course, much of this can be attributed to the overall economy. Clearly > some people are short on money, and others are just being cautious with > their money. Also eBay has made such a mess of their listings that they are > likely bringing far fewer new collectors into the hobby than they did in > years past. > > I have been buying and selling collectibles for 44 years now, and EVERY > time overall prices have been depressed (due to external reasons, like a > poor economy, or a massive collection coming on the market), it has proven > to be an excellent buying opportunity. > > I have been looking at WHO is buying the better quality items in my > auctions, and who are the underbidders, and it seems like a lot of the most > savvy and longest time collectors are doing a lot of buying (or trying to do > a lot, but are getting outbid), and that would seem to say that they agree > with me and are trying to find bargains while prices are somewhat depressed. > > I also notice that the prices of much lesser items (those that auction for > $1 to $20) are mostly extremely depressed. I attribute this to people being > far more selective in what they buy, choosing to pass up items that are in > lesser condition or of low desireability, even if they are dirt cheap (and > they may be getting to spend the money they would have spent on better items > instead). > > Anywa
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
i guess we'll know that shipping is getting too expensive when the sellers take an insert, put a few staples around it, and place a couple of stamps in the corner.? of course, a good seller will write:? FRAGILE.? DO NOT BEND. :) michael -Original Message- From: Richard Halegua Comic Art To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Sent: Sun, Aug 23, 2009 4:04 pm Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? I'll be replying to another post in this string, but Bruce is right. the costs of shipping have approximately doubled from A-Z cardboard is almost double what it was 2 years ago plastic bags are almost double plastic tape (the 2 inch tape) is more than double (in 2007 a 6 pack was $5.99 , yesterday it was $14.99) Avery labels are more than double (for those wanting the math: 2 12x14 sheets of cardbaord = 56c, labels are $40 per 200, 11x14 bags are $175 per 1000 shipped) (so 1 package has approx 94 cents in supplies alone not including tape, flyers. If I have to use my own box instead of a Priority box, add $1.50) and those are costs before we even ship it out the biggest increases are (for me) shipping East of the Mississippi. as a matter of fact, I need to create a new shipping schedule as it costs me way less to ship to California and Arizona than it does to West Virginia Non-US shipping went up last year and this year and and it is at least double what it was in 2007 the bottom line? for Non-US customers, bidding has dropped precipitously which reduces competition! One new buyer in January in a "lobby card sets" auction bought 14 lbs of lobby cards. shipping to Australia was $90. the material cost $360 and many were bargains as always, but the buyer - who fully understood that the shipping costs were real - has never come back. Even worse, any package 4lbs or over going overseas must ship by Priority Mail, which makes it incredibly costly I sold a copy of the Reynold Brown book to a customer in the UK. the book was $40. shipping of this heavy 4lb'er ws $35 shipping used to actually work in this formula: $7.00 fee to buyers (domestic shipping). Cost used to leave maybe $1-2 that went toward paying help to make packages. Now with my basic $9.00 cost, we only have a $1-2 surplus for customers in a few western states near me in Nevada and when shipping to NYC for instance, we lose money (actually, any state west of Kansas is a loser for us) so now, the costs of the employee, tape, cardboard etc are fully borne by my bottom line and when you sell stuff under $5-10, it is an economic loser if the orders don't get above $40-50 or so I've been doing mail order business for 30+ years and honestly, the climbing costs are absolutely taking money out of my personal income, which should never be happening. but it's going to get worse! a new increase in already in the pipeline and to make things even worse than that, in my case, the business post office near the Strip (which is 1 block away) is slated to be closed in the massive postal closures planned to save money and now we'll have to drive 15-20 minutes just to drop off packages and to stand in line for Non-US shipping there, and my advertised mailing address of the last 17 years is going to disappear (my POBox is at that post office) so I'll have no choice but to raise my shipping rates to "get back to even" and to pay for more gasoline and the 30 minutes or more for Anna to drive there & back. if only the Starship Enterprise had left their transporter units in my warehouse. Rich At 09:07 AM 8/23/2009, Bruce Hershenson wrote: Great analysis, Evan. I completely agree that the "cost of selling" is an important consideration in looking at results. If you consign an item and it "sells" for $15, but you received 85 cents for it, then did you sell it for $15, or for 85 cents? ? One factor not mentioned to this point is the HUGE postal price increases the past few years, especially on international shipments. ? There are many items that auction for $2 because the shipping cost to the person who loves it is $20 or $30 or $40, so they can't justify bidding $3, even though they would gladly pay $10 for the item, but they can't because of the cost of shipping to them. ? Bruce On Sun, Aug 23, 2009 at 10:50 AM, wrote: I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for over the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program that answered this question!? Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. I use your sales results database all of the time -- it kicks ass.? And its very obvious that the posters that I personally have been looking at are down (way down).? However that doesn't really mean that: ?? 1) all posters in a particular price range are down (it may be just low end crappy 1940s and 1950s posters I tend to buy) ??
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
Dang it, Rich, now I'm depressed too! ? Two year ago I lost around $10,000 on shipping and material costs I absorbed. I considered it "advertising". I recently completed my 2008 accounting, and I lost over $30,000! ? Looks like my $9 base rate will soon be going to $10, and all that will do is lessen the loss. ? I feel your pain, bro! ? Bruce if bruce raises his fee to 10.00, rich---you'll be asked by me to send me the extra buck!! michael Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
Hi Bruce If you still sold on eBay I think you would have a problem with DSR's on shipping costs. Sellers are pretty much forced to charge low rates for shipping irrespective of how much it actually costs. Anyone who charges $20.00 or more for shipping a poster or two would end up with lower DSR's and low DSR's make it very difficult to survive on eBay. As to prices being "depressed", I think there is no doubt that this is true. The bottom line is that there is so much material out there that it was inevitable that dealers would have to be prepared to sell their stock at much lower prices to continue to make a living even if they are actually losing money on some items. Regards John Sign up for my regular newsletter on movie memorabilia: http://www.moviemem.com/pages/page.php?mod=account&go=register Visit my Website: www.moviemem.com All About Australian posters: http://search.reviews.ebay.com/members/johnwr_W0QQuqtZg My eBay Store and Lisitngs: http://myworld.ebay.com/johnwr/ Exhibitions: http://www.moviemem.com/pages/page.php?page=15 JOHN REID VINTAGE MOVIE MEMORABILIA PO Box 92 Palm Beach Qld 4221 Australia - Original Message - From: Bruce Hershenson To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Sent: Monday, August 24, 2009 6:10 AM Subject: Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? Dang it, Rich, now I'm depressed too! Two year ago I lost around $10,000 on shipping and material costs I absorbed. I considered it "advertising". I recently completed my 2008 accounting, and I lost over $30,000! Looks like my $9 base rate will soon be going to $10, and all that will do is lessen the loss. I feel your pain, bro! Bruce On Sun, Aug 23, 2009 at 3:04 PM, Richard Halegua Comic Art wrote: I'll be replying to another post in this string, but Bruce is right. the costs of shipping have approximately doubled from A-Z cardboard is almost double what it was 2 years ago plastic bags are almost double plastic tape (the 2 inch tape) is more than double (in 2007 a 6 pack was $5.99 , yesterday it was $14.99) Avery labels are more than double (for those wanting the math: 2 12x14 sheets of cardbaord = 56c, labels are $40 per 200, 11x14 bags are $175 per 1000 shipped) (so 1 package has approx 94 cents in supplies alone not including tape, flyers. If I have to use my own box instead of a Priority box, add $1.50) and those are costs before we even ship it out the biggest increases are (for me) shipping East of the Mississippi. as a matter of fact, I need to create a new shipping schedule as it costs me way less to ship to California and Arizona than it does to West Virginia Non-US shipping went up last year and this year and and it is at least double what it was in 2007 the bottom line? for Non-US customers, bidding has dropped precipitously which reduces competition! One new buyer in January in a "lobby card sets" auction bought 14 lbs of lobby cards. shipping to Australia was $90. the material cost $360 and many were bargains as always, but the buyer - who fully understood that the shipping costs were real - has never come back. Even worse, any package 4lbs or over going overseas must ship by Priority Mail, which makes it incredibly costly I sold a copy of the Reynold Brown book to a customer in the UK. the book was $40. shipping of this heavy 4lb'er ws $35 shipping used to actually work in this formula: $7.00 fee to buyers (domestic shipping). Cost used to leave maybe $1-2 that went toward paying help to make packages. Now with my basic $9.00 cost, we only have a $1-2 surplus for customers in a few western states near me in Nevada and when shipping to NYC for instance, we lose money (actually, any state west of Kansas is a loser for us) so now, the costs of the employee, tape, cardboard etc are fully borne by my bottom line and when you sell stuff under $5-10, it is an economic loser if the orders don't get above $40-50 or so I've been doing mail order business for 30+ years and honestly, the climbing costs are absolutely taking money out of my personal income, which should never be happening. but it's going to get worse! a new increase in already in the pipeline and to make things even worse than that, in my case, the business post office near the Strip (which is 1 block away) is slated to be closed in the massive postal closures planned to save money and now we'll have to drive 15-20 minutes just to drop off packages and to stand in line for Non-US shipping there, and my advertised mailing address of the last 17 years is going to disappear (my POBox is at that post office) so I'll have no choice but to raise my shipping rates to "get back to even" and to pay for more gasoline and the 30 minutes or more for Anna to drive there & back. if only the S
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
Hi Bruce If you still sold on eBay I think you would have a problem with DSR's on shipping costs. Sellers are pretty much forced to charge low rates for shipping irrespective of how much it actually costs. Anyone who charges $20.00 or more for shipping a poster or two would end up with lower DSR's and low DSR's make it very difficult to survive on eBay. ? As to prices being "depressed", I think there is no doubt that this is true. The bottom line is that there is so much material out there that it was inevitable that dealers?would have to be prepared to sell their stock?at much lower prices to continue to make a living even if they are actually losing money on some items. ? Regards John THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THE NEW ANONYMOUS RATING SYSTEM.? EBAY SUPPORTS THAT DISPARAGING RATINGS BE ANONYMOUS.? ANONUMOUS LIBEL. mbb Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
ears, someone could write some sort of analysis program that answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. I use your sales results database all of the time -- it kicks ass. And its very obvious that the posters that I personally have been looking at are down (way down). However that doesn't really mean that: 1) all posters in a particular price range are down (it may be just low end crappy 1940s and 1950s posters I tend to buy) 2) the prices are depressed because of the economy (as there seems to be a huge supply of posters being auctioned every week, perhaps way more than the market can sustain) 3) the pieces which are currently down are ever coming back up (I love the movie "Father Goose", but I don't expect it to sell for $100 again in my lifetime). The problem with using anecdotal evidence is that people only point to specific posters which support their claim. And, if you make a claim, people will point to some outlier which contridicts (the Librianna effect). The first challenge is to find a meaningful partitioning of the data which shows some meaningful demonstratable trend. For example, I would believe the statement "Non spectacular 1950s 1- sheets for A movies with top stars who were in their primes in the 1940s are down 50%". I would believe the statement that "Ugly posters from bad movies in the 1970s are worthless and should be discarded". However, I would not believe the statuement that "All 1970s posters are down 25%". Finding such a partition would have to be difficult (not to mention difficult to code). The second challenge is to find a way to analyze so little data. If all posters were in the same condition, and offered regularly the analysis would be easy. However, how do you compare sales of a G- poster (with free book) to a NM copy? I don't believe that there is a standard formula to predict the sale price based on condition (although Jon Warren thought there was one in 1986!). Even if there was some magic formula (e.g., VG = 75% NM), I doubt that it works across all decades. The third challenge is to agree on some reasonable definition of 'Value' so that we can compare results across different venues. Value has to be defined as what the seller will receive for the peice (not what the buyer will pay), as all of the venues charge differently for their services. For example if eMovieposter sells a poster for $15 (the seller get 40% or $6) and if HA.com sells it for $15 (a $1 bid plus $14 BP, the seller get $0.85) on eBay the number is somewhere in the middle. As a result, it makes little sense to use data from one of these sites which is outside that sites sweet spot! For eMovieposter its atlesast $50, for HA its at least $75. The issue here is that the overhead dominates the cost of the transaction and the value will not be correct. Let me know what you find! Evan - Original Message - From: "Bruce Hershenson" < brucehershen...@gmail.com> To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU Sent: Saturday, August 22, 2009 7:44:24 AM GMT -07:00 US/Canada Mountain Subject: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? I was talking to one of my consignors on the phone a couple of days ago, and he mentioned that he thought many prices were down in recent months. Of course, much of this can be attributed to the overall economy. Clearly some people are short on money, and others are just being cautious with their money. Also eBay has made such a mess of their listings that they are likely bringing far fewer new collectors into the hobby than they did in years past. I have been buying and selling collectibles for 44 years now, and EVERY time overall prices have been depressed (due to external reasons, like a poor economy, or a massive collection coming on the market), it has proven to be an excellent buying opportunity. I have been looking at WHO is buying the better quality items in my auctions, and who are the underbidders, and it seems like a lot of the most savvy and longest time collectors are doing a lot of buying (or trying to do a lot, but are getting outbid), and that would seem to say that they agree with me and are trying to find bargains while prices are somewhat depressed. I also notice that the prices of much lesser items (those that auction for $1 to $20) are mostly extremely depressed. I attribute this to people being far more selective in what they buy, choosing to pass up items that are in lesser condition or of low desireability, even if they are dirt cheap (and they may be getting to spend the money they would have spent on better items instead). Anyway, I am betting that one more time this will prove to be a time when people look back and think "Why didn't I buy more when many decent items sold for reasonable prices&quo
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
Thanks for clarifying this, Helmut, as it is oh so true. many sellers charge so much more than the actual shipping cost. as an example: we have all ordered items on line, from private sellers-- and have been charged, let's say, 20.00, for postage. the only problem is, when the package arrives -- the printed USPS label with the ACTUAL cost (example: 8.75) to mail is staring us in the face. an additional 11.25 of pure profit? for what? (and i'm not talking the cost of materials--JUST the mailing cost). On Aug 24, 2009, at 4:57 AM, Helmut Hamm wrote: I mean no offense, but as an international customer you charge me a minimum of $19 for shipping. I remember one package I received from you with two or three posters, shipped First Class Mail International, at postage costs of under $12. Now even with packing materials, handling costs and whatever, I can't see that you lost any money here. Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
Re: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
I defy anyone (even the members of the BHHC) to find anytime WE charge more than the actual shipping, plus $2 for packaging materials. In fact, whenever this does happen, we refund the difference back to the buyer, even if it is just a couple of dollars! Bruce On Mon, Aug 24, 2009 at 2:35 PM, Jeff Potokar wrote: > Thanks for clarifying this, Helmut, as it is oh so true. many sellers > charge so much more than the actual shipping cost. > as an example: we have all ordered items on line, from private sellers-- > and have been charged, let's say, 20.00, for postage. > the only problem is, when the package arrives -- the printed USPS label > with the ACTUAL cost (example: 8.75) to mail is staring us in the face. > > an additional 11.25 of pure profit? for what? (and i'm not talking the > cost of materials--JUST the mailing cost). > > > > > > > On Aug 24, 2009, at 4:57 AM, Helmut Hamm wrote: > > I mean no offense, but as an international customer you charge me a > minimum of $19 for shipping. I remember one package I received from you with > two or three posters, > shipped First Class Mail International, at postage costs of under $12. > > Now even with packing materials, handling costs and whatever, I can't see > that you lost any money here. > > > Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com > ___ How to > UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: > lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF > MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content. > > Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: lists...@listserv.american.edu In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
