Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-08 Thread sblack
I said:

> >_Science Daily_ has an informative news item on it headed
> >"Women's Choices, Not Abilities, Keep Them out of Math-Intensive
> >Fields at http://tinyurl.com/2f3bo59

Allen E. commented:
>
> The Science Daily article relates to this book cited by Stephen:
> >Ceci, S. and Williams, W. (2010) Sex Differences in Math-Intensive
> >Fields _Current Directions in Psychological Science_ October
> >2010 19: 275-279, first published on October 4, 2010 ...
> >abstract at http://cdp.sagepub.com/content/19/5/275.abstract

A bit of  confusion here. My cite refers, not to their book, but  to
a short readable summary they just published in Current
Directions. Possibly they felt the need to publish that summary
because few were willing to take on their formidable tome itself
(as Allen notes).

In the article I cited, they do list it under "Recommended
Reading", and give their own blurb as follows:

 "Provides a comprehensive, highly accessible overview of what
is known about sex differences in math-intensive field, based on
more than 400 published studies, and containing the references
for many of the claims made in this article".

The book is:

Ceci, S. and Williams, W. (2010). The mathematics of sex: How
biology and society conspire to limit talented women and girls.
Oxford.

BTW, Ceci kindly responded seemingly within minutes to my e-
mail request to him for his article. I didn't ask for the book!

Stephen


Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.
Professor of Psychology, Emeritus
Bishop's University
Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada
e-mail:  sblack at ubishops.ca
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Re:[tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-07 Thread Allen Esterson
On 8 November 2010 Stephen Black wrote, first quoting Rick Froman:
>>There was an issue of Psychological Science in the Public
>>Interest devoted to this issue in 2007, available for free here:
http://www.psychologicalscience.org/journals/pspi/pspi_8_1_article.pdf

>Their conclusion from the Abstract: "There are no
>single or simple answers to the complex questions about
>sex differences in science and mathematics.”

>By happenstance, I just stumbled on a new study,
>published in the most recent issue of _Current Directions
>in Psychological Science_, but only available for $$$.

>They come to a bolder conclusion, namely "preferences
>and choices—both freely made and constrained—are the
>most significant cause of women’s underrepresentation".

That doesn't seem to me to necessarily be *much* bolder, as the fact 
that the most significant reason for women's under-representation is 
down to choices of one kind or another does not preclude that at the 
highest level there may be sex differences in potential achievement in 
mathematics.

>_Science Daily_ has an informative news item on it headed
>"Women's Choices, Not Abilities, Keep Them out of Math-Intensive
>Fields at http://tinyurl.com/2f3bo59

The Science Daily article relates to this book cited by Stephen:
>Ceci, S. and Williams, W. (2010) Sex Differences in Math-Intensive
>Fields _Current Directions in Psychological Science_ October
>2010 19: 275-279, first published on October 4, 2010 …
>abstract at http://cdp.sagepub.com/content/19/5/275.abstract


The headline of the Science Daily article is
"Women's Choices, Not Abilities, Keep Them out of Math-Intensive Fields"

This, as headlines often do, slightly oversimplifies what Ceci and 
Williams concluded. I obtained their book through my local library 
earlier this year. I can't say I actually *read* it (it is heavy, 
heavy, heavy with statistical analysis, and a thorough reading would 
take up most of one's time for two or three weeks at least – and then I 
wouldn't be able to pretend to have understood much of the stats), but 
the sense I had of their overall conclusions is that while women's 
choice was very much the main factor in men's disproportionate 
representation in mathematical and physical science fields, they did 
not exclude sex differentials in achievement at the highest levels. In 
fact this is indicated in the Science Daily article:

"However, twice as many men as women score in the top 1% on tests such 
as the SAT-M. Clearly, the picture is complex, Ceci and Williams 
decided." – in other words, a not dissimilar overall conclusion to the 
one quoted by Rick above!

Also from the Science Daily article:

"Williams and Ceci also reviewed research on sex discrimination and 
decided that it is no longer a major factor. In fact, one large-scale 
national study found that women are actually slightly more likely than 
men to be invited to interview for and to be offered tenure-track jobs 
in math-intensive STEM fields."

All the above is very much in line with what Susan Pinker finds in her 
book *The Sexual Paradox: Troubled Boys, Gifted Girls and the Real 
Differences Between the Sexes* (2008).

Allen Esterson
Former lecturer, Science Department
Southwark College, London
allenester...@compuserve.com
http://www.esterson.org

-

From:   sbl...@ubishops.ca
Subject:Re: Big news on the Larry Summers front
Date:   Sun, 07 Nov 2010 20:19:00 -0500

On 6 Nov 2010 at 15:30, Rick Froman wrote:

There was an issue of Psychological Science in the Public Interest 
devoted to this issue in 2007, available for free here: 
http://www.psychologicalscience.org/journals/pspi/pspi_8_1_article.pdf

>Their conclusion from the Abstract: "There are no
> single or simple answers to the complex questions about sex > 
differences in science and mathematics.”

By happenstance, I just stumbled on a new study,  published in the most 
recent issue of _Current Directions in Psychological Science_, but only 
available for $$$.

They come to a bolder conclusion, namely  "preferences and choices—both 
freely made and constrained—are the most significant cause of women’s 
underrepresentation" .

_Science Daily_ has an informative news  item on it headed "Women's 
Choices, Not Abilities, Keep Them out of Math-Intensive Fields at 
http://tinyurl.com/2f3bo59

It has the obligatory nod to the Larry Summers affair.

Stephen

Ceci, S. and Williams, W. (2010) Sex Differences in Math-Intensive 
Fields _Current Directions in Psychological Science_ October 2010 19: 
275-279, first published on October 4, 2010 doi:10.1177/0963721410383241
abstract at http://cdp.sagepub.com/content/19/5/275.abstract


Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.
Professor of Psychology, Emeritus
Bishop's University
Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada
e-mail:  sblack at ubishops.ca
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Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-07 Thread sblack


On 6 Nov 2010 at 15:30, Rick Froman wrote:

There was an issue of Psychological Science in the Public 
Interest devoted to this issue in 2007, available for free here: 
http://www.psychologicalscience.org/journals/pspi/pspi_8_1_
article.pdf 

>Their conclusion from the Abstract: "There are no 
> single or simple answers to the complex questions about sex 
> differences in science and mathematics."

By happenstance, I just stumbled on a new study,  published in 
the most recent issue of _Current Directions in Psychological 
Science_, but only available for $$$. 

They come to a bolder conclusion, namely  "preferences and 
choices-both freely made and constrained-are the most 
significant cause of women´s underrepresentation" .

_Science Daily_ has an informative news  item on it headed 
"Women's Choices, Not Abilities, Keep Them out of Math-
Intensive Fields at http://tinyurl.com/2f3bo59
 
It has the obligatory nod to the Larry Summers affair. 

Stephen 

Ceci, S. and Williams, W. (2010) Sex Differences in Math-
Intensive Fields _Current Directions in Psychological Science_ 
October 2010 19: 275-279, first published on October 4, 2010 
doi:10.1177/0963721410383241
abstract at 
http://cdp.sagepub.com/content/19/5/275.abstract


Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.  
Professor of Psychology, Emeritus   
Bishop's University
Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada   
e-mail:  sblack at ubishops.ca
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Re:[tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-07 Thread Mike Palij
On Sat, 06 Nov 2010 22:59:14 -0400, Christopher D. Green wrote:
> Mike Palij wrote:
>> On Sat, 06 Nov 2010 17:43:43 -0700, Christopher Green wrote:
>>> Pardon me. That should have been $27.6 BILLION. 
>>
>> On Nov 6, 2010, at 6:26 PM, "Christopher D. Green"  wrote:
>>> No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university is the equivalent 
>>> of 
>>> Harvard.
>>> No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university has a $27.6M 
>>> endowment. (http://www.hmc.harvard.edu/)
>>> Chris (went to McGill and U. Toronto) Green
>>
>> Excuse me for being exceedingly dense but I am having a hard time
>> making the connection between the size of the Harvard's endowment,
>> Larry Summers as Harvard's president, and Harvard's "exceptionalism"
>> (in the sense of U.S. "exceptionalism"). 
> 
> Yes, I can see that you would. I was responding to Michael Sylvester's 
> post-script asking what Canadian school was the "equivalent" of Harvard.

I see. However, when I first saw Prof. Sylvester's request for the Canadian
equivalent of Harvard I interpreted the statement as saying "in Canada, which
college has the status and prestege that Harvard has in the U.S.?"  One can
interpret Prof. Sylvester's question in a variety of ways but I admit that the
size of its endowment was not among the first several answers I had generated.
Instead, I thought of the City College of New York (CCNY) which is part
of the City University of New York.  Quoting from the Wkipedia entry 
(yadda-yadda)
on CCNY:

|In the years when top-flight private schools were restricted to the children 
|of the Protestant Establishment, thousands of brilliant individuals (including 
|Jewish students) attended City College because they had no other option. 
|CCNY's academic excellence and status as a working-class school earned 
|it the titles "Harvard of the Proletariat", the "poor man's Harvard", and 
|"Harvard-on-the-Hudson".[17]
|
|Even today, after three decades of controversy over its academic standards, 
|no other public college has produced as many Nobel laureates who have 
|studied and graduated with a degree from a particular public college.[18] 
|CCNY's official quote on this is "Nine Nobel laureates claim CCNY as their 
|Alma Mater, the most from any public college in the United States."[19][20] 
|This should not be confused with Nobel laureates who teach at a public 
|university; UC Berkeley boasts 19.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_college_of_new_york

According to the Wikipedia entry, CCNY's endowment is only $131 million,
which can't hold a cangle to Harvard's endowment.  Nonetheless, the quality
of a college is dependent upon many things and though money can play a role
that isn't the single most important factor (or even the most important factor
depending upon what aspect of a college/university's performance one is 
concerened
with).

So, to re-state Prof. Sylvester question:  "What university in Canada is the
'Harvard of Canada' ?"

-Mike Palij
New York Univesity
m...@nyu.edu





 

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Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-06 Thread sblack
On 6 Nov 2010 at 18:29, Rick Froman wrote:

> I know there is a discrepancy between American and British accounting for 
> billions but, in the system native
> to Harvard U. (and as announced on the linked page below), Harvard has a 
> $27.6B endowment. .

This has always been a source of confusion for me, but at last 
Wikipedia appears to have sorted me out (see entry under "long 
and short scales").

Britain, the USA, Canada and most English-speaking countries 
are all on the same page nowadays, in which 1 billion = 1 
followed by nine zeros. This is the "short scale". The only 
exception seems to be Quebec (isn't it always) where in French 
1 billion = 1 followed by 12 zeros (the "long scale").  I didn't 
know that. 

So I guess if you win a billion dollars in a lottery up here, you 
should ask for it in French. 

Stephen.



Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.  
Professor of Psychology, Emeritus   
Bishop's University
Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada   
e-mail:  sblack at ubishops.ca
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Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-06 Thread Christopher D. Green


Mike Palij wrote:
> On Sat, 06 Nov 2010 17:43:43 -0700, Christopher Green wrote:
>   
>> Pardon me. That should have been $27.6 BILLION.
>> 
>
> On Nov 6, 2010, at 6:26 PM, "Christopher D. Green"  wrote:
>   
>> No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university is the equivalent of 
>> Harvard.
>> No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university has a $27.6M 
>> endowment. (http://www.hmc.harvard.edu/)
>> Chris (went to McGill and U. Toronto) Green
>> 
>
> Excuse me for being exceedingly dense but I am having a hard time
> making the connection between the size of the Harvard's endowment,
> Larry Summers as Harvard's president, and Harvard's "exceptionalism"
> (in the sense of U.S. "exceptionalism"). 

Yes, I can see that you would. I was responding to Michael Sylvester's 
post-script asking what Canadian school was the "equivalent" of Harvard.

Chris
-- 

Christopher D. Green
Department of Psychology
York University
Toronto, ON M3J 1P3
Canada

 

416-736-2100 ex. 66164
chri...@yorku.ca
http://www.yorku.ca/christo/

==


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Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-06 Thread Mike Palij
On Sat, 06 Nov 2010 17:43:43 -0700, Christopher Green wrote:
>Pardon me. That should have been $27.6 BILLION.

On Nov 6, 2010, at 6:26 PM, "Christopher D. Green"  wrote:
> No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university is the equivalent of 
> Harvard.
> No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university has a $27.6M 
> endowment. (http://www.hmc.harvard.edu/)
> Chris (went to McGill and U. Toronto) Green

Excuse me for being exceedingly dense but I am having a hard time
making the connection between the size of the Harvard's endowment,
Larry Summers as Harvard's president, and Harvard's "exceptionalism"
(in the sense of U.S. "exceptionalism").  As far a I know, Summers has
no direct role in financial decisions regarding the endowment.  It is
managed by professional fund managers, one of whom was Mohamed
El-Erian, currently co-inverstment chief of PIMCO; for more on
the Harvard endowment, Mr. El-Erian, PIMCO, and the woes of managing
an endowment, see:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=at0iuIc8_ga0

Quoting from the article which was published in May 2009:

|Harvard, projecting an endowment loss of as much as 30 percent 
|this fiscal year, has frozen hiring and salaries and fired staff. Harvard 
|raised cash by issuing $2.5 billion in bonds in December after failing
|to sell $1.5 billion in private- equity stakes. 

As the old saying goes, people are never quite as smart as they appear.

That being said, Summers can kiss butt with the best of them as might
be evident from the following story about Indian's Tata Group (no, not
those "tatas") $50 million contribution to the Harvard business school.
See:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Ahead-of-Obama-visit-Tatas-make-a-point-with-50-million-gift-to-Harvard/articleshow/6756752.cms

Now, if one wants to argue that Harvard is exceptional because of its
educational quality, it's intellectual capital, it's contributions to all
manner of intellectual activities, well, I think one might have a better
argument but one that is harder to qunatify.  It is tempting to use a simple
metric like size of endowment (which is like guys in the lockerroom
comparing their you-know-what) but, I think, that is a questionable
metric.  Hell, even PIMCO is looking less spectacular after one realizes
that it's success had less to do with its management (El-Erian and
Gross notwithstanding) that larger market forces -- see the following 
for one view:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/232465-the-new-normal-will-hit-pimco-the-hardest-of-all

-Mike Palij
New York University (#24 on the list provide by Jim Clark and only lost 15% 
of its endowment while Harvard lost 29.8%)
m...@nyu.edu







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Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-06 Thread Christopher Green
Pardon me. That should have been $27.6 BILLION.

Chris
---
Christopher D Green
Department of Psychology
York University
Toronto, ON M6C 1G4
Canada

chri...@yorku.ca

On Nov 6, 2010, at 6:26 PM, "Christopher D. Green"  wrote:

> No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university is the equivalent of 
> Harvard.
> No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university has a $27.6M 
> endowment. (http://www.hmc.harvard.edu/)
> 
> Chris (went to McGill and U. Toronto) Green
> York U.
> 
> 
> michael sylvester wrote:
>> Didn't Obama remark that Larry Summers did a "heck of a job" in his 
>> administration?
>> 
>> Michael "omnicentric" Sylvester,PhD
>> Daytona Beach,Florida
>> 
>> Btw,which Canadian U is equivalent to Harvard? McGill?
>> 
>> 
>> ---
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RE: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-06 Thread Jim Clark
Hi

Billions it is ... Chris undoubtedly made a typo.  Here are Canadian university 
endowments (see Table 4.3)

http://www.caut.ca/uploads/2010_4_UniversitiesAndColleges.pdf

Only U of Toronto breaks the $1B mark at $1.3B, although several others are 
around the $1B level.  So Harvard has something like 20-30 times the top 
endowment of a Canadian university.  I know a few years ago there was 
legislation being considered to force American universities to spend their 
excessive (to some) endowments, but I don't know if anything came of it (or if 
the recession "cured" much of the problem ... Harvard lost about $10B in one 
year ... they use to be at about $36B).

USA appears to have about 50-60 universities with endowments of $1B or more.  
See

http://www.nacubo.org/Documents/research/2009_NCSE_Public_Tables_Endowment_Market_Values.pdf

Take care
Jim


James M. Clark
Professor of Psychology
204-786-9757
204-774-4134 Fax
j.cl...@uwinnipeg.ca

>>> Rick Froman  06-Nov-10 5:29:51 PM >>>
I know there is a discrepancy between American and British accounting for 
billions but, in the system native to Harvard U. (and as announced on the 
linked page below), Harvard has a $27.6B endowment. I would be surprised if a 
number of colleges (including mine) didn't have at least a @27.6M endowment.

Rick

Dr. Rick Froman, Chair
Division of Humanities and Social Sciences 
Professor of Psychology 
Box 3055
John Brown University 
2000 W. University Siloam Springs, AR  72761 
rfro...@jbu.edu 
(479)524-7295
http://tinyurl.com/DrFroman 

"The LORD detests both Type I and Type II errors." Proverbs 17:15

-Original Message-
From: Christopher D. Green [mailto:chri...@yorku.ca] 
Sent: Saturday, November 06, 2010 5:26 PM
To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)
Subject: Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university is the equivalent of 
Harvard.
No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university has a $27.6M endowment. 
(http://www.hmc.harvard.edu/)

Chris (went to McGill and U. Toronto) Green York U.


michael sylvester wrote:
> Didn't Obama remark that Larry Summers did a "heck of a job" in his 
> administration?
>
> Michael "omnicentric" Sylvester,PhD
> Daytona Beach,Florida
>
> Btw,which Canadian U is equivalent to Harvard? McGill?
>
>
> ---
> You are currently subscribed to tips as: chri...@yorku.ca.
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RE: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-06 Thread Rick Froman
I know there is a discrepancy between American and British accounting for 
billions but, in the system native to Harvard U. (and as announced on the 
linked page below), Harvard has a $27.6B endowment. I would be surprised if a 
number of colleges (including mine) didn't have at least a @27.6M endowment.

Rick

Dr. Rick Froman, Chair
Division of Humanities and Social Sciences 
Professor of Psychology 
Box 3055
John Brown University 
2000 W. University Siloam Springs, AR  72761 
rfro...@jbu.edu
(479)524-7295
http://tinyurl.com/DrFroman

"The LORD detests both Type I and Type II errors." Proverbs 17:15

-Original Message-
From: Christopher D. Green [mailto:chri...@yorku.ca] 
Sent: Saturday, November 06, 2010 5:26 PM
To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)
Subject: Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university is the equivalent of 
Harvard.
No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university has a $27.6M endowment. 
(http://www.hmc.harvard.edu/)

Chris (went to McGill and U. Toronto) Green York U.


michael sylvester wrote:
> Didn't Obama remark that Larry Summers did a "heck of a job" in his 
> administration?
>
> Michael "omnicentric" Sylvester,PhD
> Daytona Beach,Florida
>
> Btw,which Canadian U is equivalent to Harvard? McGill?
>
>
> ---
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Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-06 Thread Christopher D. Green
No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university is the 
equivalent of Harvard.
No Canadian (or British or Australian or...) university has a $27.6M 
endowment. (http://www.hmc.harvard.edu/)


Chris (went to McGill and U. Toronto) Green
York U.


michael sylvester wrote:
Didn't Obama remark that Larry Summers did a "heck of a job" in his 
administration?


Michael "omnicentric" Sylvester,PhD
Daytona Beach,Florida

Btw,which Canadian U is equivalent to Harvard? McGill?


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RE: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-06 Thread Rick Froman
There was an issue of Psychological Science in the Public Interest devoted to 
this issue in 2007, available for free here: 
http://www.psychologicalscience.org/journals/pspi/pspi_8_1_article.pdf



Halpern, D. F., Benbow, C. P., Geary, D. C., Gur, R. C., Hyde, J. S., & 
Gernsbacher, M. A. (2007). The science of sex differences in science and 
mathematics. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 8, 1-51.



Their conclusion from the Abstract: "We conclude that early experience, 
biological factors, educational policy, and cultural context affect the number 
of women and men who pursue advanced study in science and math and that these 
effects add and interact in complex ways. There are no single or simple answers 
to the complex questions about sex differences in science and mathematics."



Rick



Dr. Rick Froman, Chair

Division of Humanities and Social Sciences Box 3055

x7295

rfro...@jbu.edu

http://tinyurl.com/DrFroman



Proverbs 14:15 "A simple man believes anything, but a prudent man gives thought 
to his steps."





-Original Message-
From: sbl...@ubishops.ca [mailto:sbl...@ubishops.ca]
Sent: Saturday, November 06, 2010 1:50 PM
To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)
Subject: Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front



Ok, I've taken another look at the paper (Lindberg et al, New Trends in 
GenderPsych Bull, 2010).



I asked whether the average VR of 1.07 they reported in their first study was 
significantly different from a VR of 1.00 (and could have asked  this about 
their second study, where it was 1.09).



This made me wonder how they were obtaining their average VR ratios. I looked 
at it for their second study, where they had four large data set studies, each 
reporting  VRs for multiple years.



Did they consider each VR a data point, and lump them all together in one big 
average? Or did they consider each study separately, and then average the 
averages? If the first, then eyeballing it suggests that their average VR of 
1.09 would differ significantly from 1.00 over 56 separate VR data points. If 
they only used the average of each study (four of them), the number of entries 
would be too small for a meaningful answer.



But it seemed to me that lumping all the individual data points together was 
improper, and that they should only consider one

a(average) VR value per study.



So which was it? What did they do? I tried to find out. For the one big average 
case (n= 56), I calculated the VR ratio from their data as 1.103. With the 
average of averages (n = 4) it came to 1.0975 . Neither is the 1.09 they 
reported but both are very close to it, and are very close to each other. [My 
understanding, together with a bit of algebra to make sure is that the overall 
average is not necessarily the same as the average of averages, but if I'm 
wrong, I'm going to look pretty silly here].



They did say they used the method of Katzman and Alliger (1992), whose title 
indicates it's a critique of methods of averaging variances, so perhaps they 
did neither of the above.



But the real news, which escaped me last time, is that these values of VR, 
however obtained, are not really that much lower from those she cites as 
earlier published estimates. So it's really, more or less (a bit less)  a 
replication of earlier claims of variability, not "nearly equal male and female 
variances" as she says in her abstract. As Jim Clark showed, this difference 
can mean a big deal at the extreme end of the tail. So it leaves unconvincing 
her conclusion that "these findings support the view that males and females 
perform similarly in mathematics"

.

Also, I'd like to amend this statement with which I ended my previous post:

>

> For what it's worth, the hypothesis that seems most likely to me is

> the self-selection one. Women may just not find full professorship at

> Harvard in mathematics one of the most fulfilling things they can do

> with their lives. That, of course, and innate ability at the very,

> very high end.

> .



I should add to that I can also readily believe that the good old boys at 
Harvard may well harbour a certain prejudice against hiring women. So, like 
Larry Summers, I hedge my bets.



Stephen





Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.

Professor of Psychology, Emeritus

Bishop's University

Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada

e-mail:  sblack at ubishops.ca

-



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Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-06 Thread sblack
Ok, I've taken another look at the paper (Lindberg et al, New 
Trends in GenderPsych Bull, 2010).

I asked whether the average VR of 1.07 they reported in their 
first study was significantly different from a VR of 1.00 (and 
could have asked  this about their second study, where it was 
1.09).

This made me wonder how they were obtaining their average 
VR ratios. I looked at it for their second study, where they had 
four large data set studies, each reporting  VRs for multiple 
years.

Did they consider each VR a data point, and lump them all 
together in one big average? Or did they consider each study 
separately, and then average the averages? If the first, then 
eyeballing it suggests that their average VR of 1.09 would differ 
significantly from 1.00 over 56 separate VR data points. If they 
only used the average of each study (four of them), the number 
of entries would be too small for a meaningful answer.

But it seemed to me that lumping all the individual data points 
together was improper, and that they should only consider one 
a(average) VR value per study.

So which was it? What did they do? I tried to find out. For the 
one big average case (n= 56), I calculated the VR ratio from 
their data as 1.103. With the average of averages (n = 4) it 
came to 1.0975 . Neither is the 1.09 they reported but both are 
very close to it, and are very close to each other. [My 
understanding, together with a bit of algebra to make sure is 
that the overall average is not necessarily the same as the 
average of averages, but if I'm wrong, I'm going to look pretty 
silly here].

They did say they used the method of Katzman and Alliger 
(1992), whose title indicates it's a critique of methods of 
averaging variances, so perhaps they did neither of the above.

But the real news, which escaped me last time, is that these 
values of VR, however obtained, are not really that much lower 
from those she cites as earlier published estimates. So it's 
really, more or less (a bit less)  a replication of earlier claims of 
variability, not "nearly equal male and female variances" as she 
says in her abstract. As Jim Clark showed, this difference can 
mean a big deal at the extreme end of the tail. So it leaves 
unconvincing her conclusion that "these findings support the 
view that males and females perform similarly in mathematics"
.
Also, I'd like to amend this statement with which I ended my 
previous post:
> 
> For what it's worth, the hypothesis that seems most likely to me 
> is the self-selection one. Women may just not find full 
> professorship at Harvard in mathematics one of the most 
> fulfilling things they can do with their lives. That, of course, and 
> innate ability at the very, very high end. 
> .

I should add to that I can also readily believe that the good old 
boys at Harvard may well harbour a certain prejudice against 
hiring women. So, like Larry Summers, I hedge my bets.

Stephen


Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.  
Professor of Psychology, Emeritus   
Bishop's University
Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada   
e-mail:  sblack at ubishops.ca
-

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Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-06 Thread michael sylvester
Didn't Obama remark that Larry Summers did a "heck of a job" in his 
administration?


Michael "omnicentric" Sylvester,PhD
Daytona Beach,Florida

Btw,which Canadian U is equivalent to Harvard? McGill?


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Re:[tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-06 Thread Allen Esterson
Stephen Black refers to the meta-analysis by S. M. Lindburg et al of 
data from relatively recent comparative studies of gender differences 
in mathematical attainment. (See below.) I don't have time to look into 
this right now, but my recollection of some of the individual studies 
(and as far as I can see it applies to this meta-analysis) is that they 
relate to results achieved by high school age children. For more than 
one reason, I don't think this research justifies the conclusions that 
seem to be being drawn.

The mathematics in question is a long long way from the high-powered 
mathematics that distinguishes the really exceptional from the 
run-of-the-mill talented. This is not to mention the issue of the 
deterioration of standards in mathematics exams at school level that 
undoubtedly has occurred in the last three decades in the UK – and, I 
gather, this may well be the case in the States. In this context it is 
not irrelevant that as soon as coursework was dropped from UK GCSE 
mathematics (16 year-olds) the small lead that girls had achieved in 
mathematics public exam results in recent years was immediately 
reversed. The point is that there is good evidence (which I have 
personally experienced as a teacher) that, as a generalisation, girls 
are prepared to spend more time on work done at home than are boys, who 
are more inclined to leave the work until the last moment. (There are 
other issues related to the type of mathematics examinations at school 
level in recent times that I shall not go into here. :-) )

Allen Esterson
Former lecturer, Science Department
Southwark College, London
allenester...@compuserve.com
http://www.esterson.org

--

From:   sbl...@ubishops.ca
Subject:Big news on the Larry Summers front
Date:   Fri, 05 Nov 2010 20:17:26 -0400
What, you thought maybe I was gonna talk about politics? This
is a psychology list!

Dr. Summers was rash enough to speculate, while President of
some obscure place called Havahd, about the finding that few
women are to be found among the highest reaches of the hard
sciences, such as in the Department of Mathematics at Harvard.

One of his speculations was that there was more innate aptitude
at the high end of the bell curve for men than women. We all
know what happened next. But if you missed it, a concise
summary can be found here:
http://media.swarthmore.edu/bulletin/?p=145

The point was that while there may not have been a difference
in average ability, there was in variability (at both tails). As the
Swarthmore essay notes, a well-known researcher, Janet Hyde
"partially" confirmed Summers.

Not any more,  she doesn't.

Here's the abstract from Psychological Bulletin, just published.

Lindberg, Sara M.; Hyde, Janet Shibley; Petersen, Jennifer L.;
Linn, Marcia C. New trends in gender and mathematics
performance: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, Vol
136(6), Nov 2010, 1123-1135.

Abstract

In this article, we use meta-analysis to analyze gender
differences in recent studies of mathematics performance. First,
we meta-analyzed data from 242 studies published between
1990 and 2007, representing the testing of 1,286,350 people.
Overall, d = 0.05, indicating no gender difference, and variance
ratio = 1.08, indicating nearly equal male and female variances.
Second, we analyzed data from large data sets based on
probability sampling of U.S. adolescents over the past 20 years:
the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, the National
Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, the Longitudinal Study of
American Youth, and the National Assessment of Educational
Progress. Effect sizes for the gender difference ranged between
-0.15 and +0.22. Variance ratios ranged from 0.88 to 1.34.
Taken together, these findings support the view that males and
females perform similarly in mathematics. (PsycINFO Database
Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)

And just when Summers thought it might be safe to go back to
Harvard.

Stephen


Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.
Professor of Psychology, Emeritus
Bishop's University
Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada
e-mail:  sblack at ubishops.ca
-



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Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-05 Thread sblack
On 5 Nov 2010 at 22:45, Jim Clark wrote:

> Going just on Stephen's summary, some people just do not appear to understand 
> the impact of tiny differences
> on extreme scores for very large numbers of people.  The following SPSS 
> program generates  

> So even with the very modest values reported, it is possible to 
get substantial gender imbalances.  One would have to guess 
that the percentage of the population with PhDs in mathematics 
or theoretical physics would be tiny, that is a very select group, 
and perhaps even smaller than my 100 out of 1,000,000 
observations above. > >  

This is a clever and very interesting analysis of Jim's. It 
prompted me to take a look at the article itself, something I 
really didn't want to do. As I anticipated, it was something less 
than transparently clear, especially to a statistics-challenged 
person such as myself.  

Here's essentially all that the authors said about the variance 
issue:

"Sixth, do males display greater variance in scores and, if so, by 
how much? The overall VR in Study 1 was 1.07. That is, males 
displayed a somewhat larger variance, but the VR was not far 
from 1.0 or equal variances. In Study 2, the average VR was 
1.09, again not far from 1.0. In addition, the NELS:88 data (see 
Table 3) show several VRs that are 
1.0, indicating that greater male variability is not ubiquitous. VRs 
less than 1.0 have also been found in some national and 
international data sets (Hyde et al., 2008; Hyde & Mertz, 2009). "

This seems strikingly non-quantitative to me ("somewhat larger 
variance, but not far from 1.0"; "again, not far") in a paper which 
claims to be quantitative in the extreme.

How far is "not far".? Perhaps I'm showing some of my 
promised statistical ignorance, but couldn't they have tested 
whether a VR of 1.07 was significantly different from a VR of 
!.00 (i.e. equality)?

Second, if one looks at the VRs they reported in Study 2 for the 
four (I think) major studies used in the analysis, one can see 
that the VR ratios as a function of year of testing are all over the 
map. In particular the VRs for the LSAY (Longitudinal Studies of 
American Youth) give results for each of 6 years between 1987 
and 1992 ranging from 1.14 to 1.34. These indicate a 
substantial variance ratio by anyone's criterion. I'm not sure that 
lumping this study with three others not showing such large 
efffects is any way to resolve the issue, even if this is standard 
meta-analysis technique. Why are the results of this study so 
different?

Finally, if the authors are correct, and there is no difference in 
variance in these newer studies, one might expect that the 
future looks bright for these math whiz women to start showing 
up at Harvard. I'd imagine it should have just about started 
happening now. Unless of course, discrimination is the real 
reason they haven't been there all along.

For what it's worth, the hypothesis that seems most likely to me 
is the self-selection one. Women may just not find full 
professorship at Harvard in mathematics one of the most 
fulfilling things they can do with their lives. That, of course, and 
innate ability at the very, very high end. 

Stephen


Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.  
Professor of Psychology, Emeritus   
Bishop's University
Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada   
e-mail:  sblack at ubishops.ca
-

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Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-05 Thread Jim Clark
Hi

Going just on Stephen's summary, some people just do not appear to understand 
the impact of tiny differences on extreme scores for very large numbers of 
people.  The following SPSS program generates 500,000 female scores from a 
population with mu = 0, and sigma = 1, and 500,000 male scores from a 
population with mu = .05, and sigma = 1.04 (square root of 1.08).  These 
represent data consistent with Stephen's description below.

*simulation of 2010 Hyde result: d = .05, vratio = 1.08.
input program.
loop i = 1 to 100.
compute gend = mod(i - 1,2) + 1.
if gend = 1 v = rv.norm(.05,1.04).
if gend = 2 v = rv.norm(.0,1.0).
end case.
end loop.
end file.
end input program.

I then selected cases for various degrees of selectivity.  Of the top 10,000 
scores, 5973 (59.73%) were for males and 4027 (40.27%) for females.  Of the top 
5,000 scores, 3058 (61.2%) were males and 1942 (38.8%) were females.  Of the 
top 1,000 scores 663 (66.3%) were males and 337 (33.7%) were females.  Of the 
top 100 scores, 69 (69%) were male and 31 (31%) were female.

So even with the very modest values reported, it is possible to get substantial 
gender imbalances.  One would have to guess that the percentage of the 
population with PhDs in mathematics or theoretical physics would be tiny, that 
is a very select group, and perhaps even smaller than my 100 out of 1,000,000 
observations above.

Another issue someone may know the answer to is how discriminating the tests 
are at the upper end of the distribution.  That too would influence how one 
should interpret the reported differences.

Take care
Jim

James M. Clark
Professor of Psychology
204-786-9757
204-774-4134 Fax
j.cl...@uwinnipeg.ca

>>>  05-Nov-10 7:17:26 PM >>>
What, you thought maybe I was gonna talk about politics? This
is a psychology list!

Dr. Summers was rash enough to speculate, while President of
some obscure place called Havahd, about the finding that few
women are to be found among the highest reaches of the hard
sciences, such as in the Department of Mathematics at Harvard.

One of his speculations was that there was more innate aptitude
at the high end of the bell curve for men than women. We all
know what happened next. But if you missed it, a concise
summary can be found here:
http://media.swarthmore.edu/bulletin/?p=145 

The point was that while there may not have been a difference
in average ability, there was in variability (at both tails). As the
Swarthmore essay notes, a well-known researcher, Janet Hyde
"partially" confirmed Summers.

Not any more,  she doesn't.

Here's the abstract from Psychological Bulletin, just published.

Lindberg, Sara M.; Hyde, Janet Shibley; Petersen, Jennifer L.;
Linn, Marcia C. New trends in gender and mathematics
performance: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, Vol
136(6), Nov 2010, 1123-1135.

Abstract

In this article, we use meta-analysis to analyze gender
differences in recent studies of mathematics performance. First,
we meta-analyzed data from 242 studies published between
1990 and 2007, representing the testing of 1,286,350 people.
Overall, d = 0.05, indicating no gender difference, and variance
ratio = 1.08, indicating nearly equal male and female variances.
Second, we analyzed data from large data sets based on
probability sampling of U.S. adolescents over the past 20 years:
the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, the National
Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, the Longitudinal Study of
American Youth, and the National Assessment of Educational
Progress. Effect sizes for the gender difference ranged between
-0.15 and +0.22. Variance ratios ranged from 0.88 to 1.34.
Taken together, these findings support the view that males and
females perform similarly in mathematics. (PsycINFO Database
Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)

And just when Summers thought it might be safe to go back to
Harvard.

Stephen


Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.
Professor of Psychology, Emeritus
Bishop's University
Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada
e-mail:  sblack at ubishops.ca
-

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Re: [tips] Big news on the Larry Summers front

2010-11-05 Thread Paul Brandon
As I recall, what Summers actually said was that it was an hypothesis worth 
investigating.
He did not say that he favored one outcome or the other.

Paul Brandon
Emeritus Professor of Psychology
Minnesota State University, Mankato
paul.bran...@mnsu.edu

On Nov 5, 2010, at 7:17 PM, 
  wrote:

> What, you thought maybe I was gonna talk about politics? This
> is a psychology list!
> 
> Dr. Summers was rash enough to speculate, while President of
> some obscure place called Havahd, about the finding that few
> women are to be found among the highest reaches of the hard
> sciences, such as in the Department of Mathematics at Harvard.
> 
> One of his speculations was that there was more innate aptitude
> at the high end of the bell curve for men than women. We all
> know what happened next. But if you missed it, a concise
> summary can be found here:
> http://media.swarthmore.edu/bulletin/?p=145


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