* maru dubshinki ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> Hmm... Reasonable yes. But, isn't that assuming that the survivorship
> bias continues to favor the US? For a 75 year, or infinite horizon
> projection, the chances that it won't can't be neglected.
Your argument is that since the US could cease to e
> "It was as if
> everyone had been sprinkled with idiot dust!"
Maybe it was: generations where natural selection has worked
to select "foot"-"ball" players and cheerleaders as alpha reproducers
can't go unpunished :-P
Alberto Monteiro
___
http://www.
* Dan Minette ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> But, wouldn't that just be a slope changedFIT/DE = .15 to dFIT/DE
> = .25? If so, then as long as I'm using the right marginal rate, then
> I'm calculating the Federal Income Tax (FIT) contribution to T and dT
> correctly.
Sure, I was pointing out t
* Dan Minette ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> > As I go through it, whenever I see something relevant to our discussion,
> > I will post it, in case you are working on it also.
>
> I probably will be, and I'll do the same.
Here is another paper of theirs that I am reading. It gives a lot of
details
Here's a recent article by Kotlikoff on his plan to replace SS.
http://econ.bu.edu/kotlikoff/Globe%20Op%20Ed%2011-21-04.pdf
The end of Social Security?
Don't reform it, replace it
By Laurence J. Kotlikoff | November 21, 2004
After a long campaign season of spin, smear, and slogan, we're finally
Trent Shipley invited:
>
> If you are interested please, reply to Brin-L. (Effectively this is a
> blank-check form of RSVP.)
>
I can see one problem: the regular chatters are Mac or Linux users,
and I imagine that the holochat software is Windoze-based. We
may be killing the old chat and _not_ cr
http://www.economist.com/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=3559860
The revolution comes home
Jan 13th 2005 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
MOST two-term American presidents lose steam in their second four
years. If scandal doesn't get them (Watergate, Iran-contra, Monica
Lewinsky),
I was talking about the survivorship bias Erik, which simply says our
extrapolations from past performance have a small, but nonetheless real
chance, of being in error because of the historically advantageous
position of our country means that it will have higher performance, and
the data from
* maru dubshinki ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> I was talking about the survivorship bias Erik, which simply
So you are arguing that we should use a lower productivity growth
forecast than 1.77% ?
--
Erik Reuter http://www.erikreuter.net/
___
http://
Erik Reuter wrote:
... But Social Security is
broke,
Pretty hard to continue reading after that sentence.
Unless, of course, I hear that all the Social Security checks are
bouncing and find out that it's true.
Nick
___
http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/
Possibly. Was that bias taken into account? If then, I will shut the
heck up about this; if not, I'd suggest that the proper statistical
treatment would be to widen the margin of error. I think
~Maru
IANAS
Erik Reuter wrote:
* maru dubshinki ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
I was talking about the s
* Nick Arnett ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> Erik Reuter wrote:
>
> >... But Social Security is broke,
>
> Pretty hard to continue reading after that sentence.
>
> Unless, of course, I hear that all the Social Security checks are
> bouncing and find out that it's true.
If you want a more detailed d
* maru dubshinki ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> Possibly. Was that bias taken into account? If then, I will shut the
> heck up about this; if not, I'd suggest that the proper statistical
> treatment would be to widen the margin of error. I think
No, if it is a significant effect which lowers the p
- Original Message -
From: "Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion"
Sent: Sunday, January 16, 2005 8:03 AM
Subject: Re: Social Security
> * Dan Minette ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
>
> > But, wouldn't that just be a slope changedFIT/DE = .15 to dFIT/DE
> > = .25?
On Sat, 15 Jan 2005 22:02:57 -0600, Dan Minette
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> - Original Message -
> From: "Gary Denton" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> In short, Gary, while I agree with you that Erik can be more tactful in
> expressing his viewpoint, I also see some things from Erik's point of vi
* Dan Minette ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> I've given some income limits. It appears that a far better arguement
> could be made for lower income examples than the range the authors
> were discussing.
Which indicates to me that their fundamental point probably stands (that
there are very high ma
Gary Nunn wrote:
>> If you are interested please, reply to Brin-L. (Effectively
>> this is a blank-check form of RSVP.)
>
>
> Count me in.
>
Me too!
xponent
One Line Response Maru
rob
___
http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Part of the Survivorship bias (and the reason it is sometimes called an
observation selection effect) is that countries that lose out, lose most
of their records, or never had their economic records. So you can't
really use all relevant data because the data's gone. Example: Try
tracking Germa
As far as I can see Social Security is a distraction for people on
this list.
According to Republicans, the fund will not go negative for more than
30 years, unless someone changes or violates the Constitution of the
United States. (I am not suggesting that no one should look at Social
Security
> I can see one problem: the regular chatters are Mac or Linux
> users, and I imagine that the holochat software is
> Windoze-based. We may be killing the old chat and _not_
> creating a new one.
> Alberto Monteiro
Maybe.
I must admit that as much as I like chatting with all of you, I get
fr
* maru dubshinki ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> The studies I've read seem to indicate that global growth is
> overestimated by about 1% because of this. I don't think that you'd
> lower the productivity growth, because it is accurate *assuming*
> no freak events occur like WWIII, or a war which to
Alberto wrote
> I can see one problem: the regular chatters are Mac or Linux users,
> and I imagine that the holochat software is Windoze-based. We may be
> killing the old chat and _not_ creating a new one.
I asked...
> Will this require client software or it is strictly a web
> based i
* Robert J. Chassell ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> As far as I can see Social Security is a distraction for people on
> this list.
>
> According to Republicans, the fund will not go negative for more than
> 30 years, unless someone changes or violates the Constitution of the
> United States. (I
Erik Reuter wrote:
That's absurd. Doubly so. First, global growth is almost certainly NOT
overestimated by 1%. The fact that comparing the growth rates of various
countries over the last 200 or so years, INCLUDING THOSE DEVASTATED BY
WAR, has almost all of the free-market economies coming in at ab
* maru dubshinki ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> But if you suspect I am some old foe, or new adversary, out to entrap
> you or that I intend some other nefarious practising on you, just ask
> me.
If you were not posting nonsense, I might be willing to converse without
knowing your name (out of self
* Robert J. Chassell ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> To shift to a positive trade balance, so people in the US loan
> money abroad instead of borrow it,
>
> * which industries in the US should increase employment and production?
> And by how many and how much?
>
> * Which should lay people
David Brin filters the list so that he only sees subject lines containing
"Brin:". To get Dr. Brin uptodate seven regulars have contributed to the
thread so far. Steve Sloan, Vilyem/Medievalbk, Gary Nunn, and Robert
Seeberger have all expressed interest in participating. They have not
specif
* Erik Reuter ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> If US interest rates rise, then we will no longer have a surplus on
> investment income. If the US net foreign debt reaches 50% of GDP at a
> real interest rate of 2%, then the trade deficit will have to fall to
> 2% of GDP or lower to be sustainable (Set
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1392078,00.html
American special forces have been on the ground inside Iran scouting
for US air strike targets for suspected nuclear weapons sites,
according to the renowned US investigative journalist Seymour Hersh.
In an article in the latest edition
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1018065,00.html
The Bush Administration has not yet offered details of its plan for
Social Security, but it's expected to follow the contours of a
proposal spelled out by a 2001 commission on Social Security: a
combination of scaled-back guaranteed
http://www.cnn.com/2005/LAW/01/13/evolution.textbooks.ruling/index.htm
l
A federal judge in Atlanta, Georgia, has ruled that a suburban county
school district's textbook stickers referring to evolution as "a
theory not a fact" are unconstitutional.
In ruling that the stickers violate the constitu
I'd be interested in joining the chat, but I can't do it from work and the
soonest I'd be able to join in on Wednesdays is 8 PM PST. I dropped in on
one chat recently because I had the day off. Are there others besides
Trent that even might be around that late?
Doug
__
Erik wrote:
We need to fix the system NOW by not promising any new benefits
beyond what has already been promised . My favored way to do that was
elaborated in the PSS system suggested by Kotlikoff that I summarized
here earlier (basically, every dollar that anyone has already paid into
the SS syst
Julia wrote:
I wrote:
Erik wrote:
I guess I haven't been clear (or perhaps you are confusing my position
with Bush's confusing rhetoric).
Or maybe I'm somewhat dense when it comes to this stuff. Thanks for
clarifying things for me.
If you're dense, you're not unduly so.
I mean, I doubt that anyo
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