Hank,
Can definitely appreciate your view here, and if I held to the Kurzweilian
belief, I'd be inclined to agree. But I really don't see an 'endpoint' and
also don't see superhuman intelligence the same way I think folks in the
Kurzweilian arena tend to see it because I don't believe a machine can ever
have intention that doesn't ultimately trace back to a human being.
Definitely not the popular view I know, but I think as we approach this
level of intelligence we're going to clearly see what differentiates us
humans from machines, which is intention, motive, desire, spirituality.
This stems from my understanding of knowledge creation, which basically sees
knowledge as a non-feeling, non-intending, non-motivated mass of symbolic
connections that is constantly expanding through the efforts driven by human
intention. Robotics, cybernetics, etc., being the actionable arm of these
creations...but again, only the human has intention. As such their is no
real endpoint in terms of how far we will expand this intelligence. It is a
never-ending expansion as we explore the universe and create technologies.
Granted a human with good or bad intentions can *absolutely* transfer those
intentions to the machine, and again just my opinion, but I think the human
originated these intentions and the machine *absolutely never* will
originate them...only execute them as instructed.
In transferring these intentions to machine they are magnifying personal
intentions with a 'tool' that can be used for good or bad. The constructive
and/or destructive force is exponentially magnified by the 'tool' man is
given. Similar to nuclear weapons...the more powerful the tool, the more
rigor and wisdom required to manage it.
When we can barely manage the tools we have, we're not going to fare well
with a bigger, more powerful tool. We need to start with understanding the
culprit of our current woes...poorly understood and managed human intention.
I think I've used this quote before, but here's how Drucker put it:
"In a few hundred years, when the history of our time will be written from a
long-term perspective, it is likely that the most important event that
historians will see is not technology, not the Internet, not e-commerce. It
is an unprecedented change in the human condition. For the first time -
literally - substantial and rapidly growing numbers of people have choices.
For the first time, they will have to manage themselves. And society is
totally unprepared for it." - Peter Drucker
Kind Regards,
Bruce LaDuke
Managing Director
Instant Innovation, LLC
Indianapolis, IN
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.hyperadvance.com
----Original Message Follows----
From: "Hank Conn" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Reply-To: [email protected]
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [singularity] Convincing non-techie skeptics that the
Singularity isn't total bunk
Date: Tue, 26 Sep 2006 13:36:57 -0400
Bruce I tend to agree with all the things you say here and appreciate your
insight, observations, and sentiment.
However, here is where you are horribly wrong:
"In my mind, singularity is no different. I pesonally see it providing just
another tool in the hand of mankind, only one of greater power."
The Kurzweilian belief that the Singularity will be the end point of the
accelerating curves of technology discounts the reality of creating AGI. All
that matters is the algorithm for intelligence.
As such, the Singularity is entirely *discontinuous* with every single
trend- regardless of kind, scale, or history- that humanity knows today.
-hank
On 9/25/06, Bruce LaDuke <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
I really like Shane's observation below that people just don't think
Singularity is coming for a very long time. The beginning affects are
already here. Related to this, I've got a few additional thoughts to
share.
We're not looking into singularity yet, but the convergence has already
started. Consider that the molecular economy has the potential to bring
total social upheaval in its own right, without singularity. For example,
what happens when an automobile is weighs around 400 pounds and is
powered
by a battery that never needs charging. What happens to the oil industry?
What happens to politics because of what happens to the oil industry? How
will a space elevator by 2012 change the balance of power? Nanoweapons?
World War III? China/India industrialization and resulting pollution? As
announced recently what happens when the world warms to its hottest level
in
a million years? When biodiversity reduction goes critical and plankton
die
and oxygen fails?
I'm sure you know about most of these things and how quickly they are
moving, but my point is, trouble isn't coming...it's here. Not only
should
we be thinking about these things now, but I think it is our social
responsibility. That is, if we want children to grow up and inhabit this
world with any level of normalcy...or at all.
Any number of things could bring our glorious house crashing down in a
matter of days or months. When the Soviet economy crashed, nuclear
physicists were standing in the soup line over night. The same could
easily
be seen of us in a global economic crash. Our scholarly/industrial
existence is really very fragile. It doesn't take much for our hierarchy
of
needs to return to survival.
Our human track record of late in terms of creating advance is really
quite
good, but in terms of dealing with the social impacts of that advance is
really very, very poor and immature. All of our wonderful creations are
already making quite a big global mess. So who's to say that our
continued
focus on modernist, profit-centric values will result in any thing less
than
more and more advance alongside escalating social issues?
In my mind, singularity is no different. I pesonally see it providing
just
another tool in the hand of mankind, only one of greater power. And this
power holds the potential to fulfill human values and human intention,
which
is the piece we really aren't managing well. Bad intentions and bad
values,
combined with a bigger tool, equals bigger trouble.
Given our human track record and factors already outside of our control,
we
have a far better chance of destroying what we have now (the rest of the
way) than we have of realizing singularity. Not that we shouldn't
continue
to seek singularity, but we need a hard look at the values and intentions
than we're basing these efforts on.
See the Second Enlightenment Conference: http://www.2enlightenment.com
Elizabet Sahtouris will be keynote (http://www.ratical.org/LifeWeb/)
Kind Regards,
Bruce LaDuke
Managing Director
Instant Innovation, LLC
Indianapolis, IN
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.hyperadvance.com
----Original Message Follows----
From: "Shane Legg" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Reply-To: [email protected]
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [singularity] Convincing non-techie skeptics that the
Singularity isn't total bunk
Date: Mon, 25 Sep 2006 23:16:12 +0200
I'd suggest looking at Joy's "Why the future doesn't need us" article in
Wired.
For some reason, which isn't clear to me, that article was a huge hit,
drawing
in people that normally would never read such stuff. I was surprised when
various educated but non-techie people I know started asking me about it.
I think the major problem is one of time scale. Due to Hollywood
everybody
is familiar with the idea of the future containing super powerful
intelligent (and
usually evil) computers. So I think the basic concept that these things
could
happen in the future is already out there in the popular culture. I think
the key
thing is that most people, both Joe six pack and almost all professors I
know,
don't think it's going to happen for a really long time --- long enough
that
it's
not going to affect their lives, or the lives of anybody they know. As
such
they
aren't all that worried about it. Anyway, I don't think the idea is going
to be
taken seriously until something happens that really gives the public a
fright.
Shane
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