John Ku wrote:
On 3/3/07, *Charles D Hixson* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>> wrote:
Yes, I see no valid argument asserting that this is not a simulation
fiction that some other entity is experiencing. And there's no
guarantee that sometime soon he won't "put down the book". But this
assumption yields no valid guide as to how I should act, so I
ignore the
possibility.
I doubt that is your only reason for ignoring the possibility. For one
thing, it is quite simple to construct a scenario where (if plausible)
it does yield a valid guide as to how to act. We can, for instance,
just arbitrarily specify further details such as that the entity
reading it will "put down the book" unless you do something surprising
to keep his attention such as streak naked down your street. (Even
with the scenario as you specified it, you might think it does yield a
guide to how to act: Be interesting so they don't shut down the
simulation.)
Now, I think there is no sound deductive argument that this particular
scenario is not the case. And it would provide a valid guide as to how
to act, yet I'm betting that you ignore this possibility. Why? Because
you judge on inductive grounds that while possible, it is very
improbable. It doesn't explain much and adds on ad hoc assumptions
that don't cohere well with your observations or even the rest of the
theory. You make these sorts of judgments all the time, and I would
add, quite rationally so.
-Ku
http://www.umich.edu/~jsku <http://www.umich.edu/%7Ejsku>
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No. If I were to know, or have reason to estimate as likely, that such
a judgment function were in use then it would provide a guide, but as if
it is a simulation I have no idea of it's purpose, or of how closely
it's observed, it provides no guide to action. I'd also need to be able
to derive estimates of several other things, such as the nature of the
entity running the simulation, how subject it is to control by outside
factors ("Johnny, come to dinner!"), etc.
With so many imponderables, the most reasonable thing to do is to just
ignore the possibility, and, after all, that may well be what is desired
by the simulation. ("What would our ancestors lives have been like if
Teddy Roosevelt had won the presidential election?")
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