On Fri, Dec 7, 2012 at 10:51 PM, Eric Walker <eric.wal...@gmail.com> wrote:
The problem is that you don't find out if it what you did was safe for five > years, and then you have a 1/3 chance of dying or being disabled. > More accurately, I think it would be something like this -- for each interaction with the beryllium, there is a probability *b* that an adverse beryllium event *B* occurs. You'll then find out five years on average, with some amount of variation, whether *B* occurred. If *B* isn't seen one or two standard deviations out from five years from 2017, you will have been cleared, as far as the initial beryllium interaction went. If *B*does occur, you'll have a 1/3 chance of dying and a 2/3 chance of disability. But I assume you will need to repeat this process for each interaction that you have with the beryllium. I would not go near it. Eric
