The problem with "shelter in place" is that soooo many exemptions, does it really help any?
What percentage of the population has legitimate reasons to bypass it? Farmers, anyone in food, medical supplies, or healthcare, anyone in logistics, anyone in retail that supplies the former. What have you really gained... other than fear and power flexing? ----- Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP ----- Original Message ----- From: "Bill Prince" <part15...@gmail.com> To: af@af.afmug.com Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 9:50:47 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies Entire state of California is now "shelter in place". Guvna says it is a moment in time, and an effort to flatten the curve. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/california-governor-issues-statewide-order-to-stay-at-home-effective-thursday-evening.html bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 3/19/2020 7:02 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote: Study in Iceland (which is testing a ton more people than we are) finds about half of those who test positive were asymptomatic. https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-testing-iceland A small town in Italy tested everyone and found the same thing. And when they isolated the asymptomatic people, the new cases went to zero. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19 “We were able to contain the outbreak here, because we identified and eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and isolated them,” Andrea Crisanti, an infections expert at Imperial College London, who took part in the Vò project, told the Financial Times. “That is what makes the difference.” The research allowed for the identification of at least six asymptomatic people who tested positive for Covid-19. ‘‘If these people had not been discovered,” said the researchers, they would probably have unknowingly infected other inhabitants. “The percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high,” wrote Sergio Romagnani, professor of clinical immunology at the University of Florence, in a letter to the authorities. “The isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease.” From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Jason McKemie Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:38 PM To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to have people revolting (myself included). On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince < part15...@gmail.com > wrote: <blockquote> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month - month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot. bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote: <blockquote> With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years and people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find something else. ----- Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP From: "Bill Prince" <part15...@gmail.com> To: af@af.afmug.com Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try and flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having symptoms will become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't think we can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks. bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote: <blockquote> Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it seems to me. I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital capacity and that's great. Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as people get sick of staying home? On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote: <blockquote> I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden numbers of magnitude Heres the logic thats completely being ignored The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been attributed to flu There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates this year The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of them actually are. We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current response is such that has never been seen in the history of the planet. Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent on the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having helped their situation. Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic. On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard < mhoward...@gmail.com > wrote: <blockquote> I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what other countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are almost all in Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most of the world, and they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than most countries did... so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers at this point. But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it all depends on what they think is in their best interests at this point, and I don't trust any information from or about North Korea, no matter what the source is, but the high level of government control over everything in North Korea could certainly give them an advantage in this situation. On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince < part15...@gmail.com > wrote: <blockquote> North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before we understand the scope of this. bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: <blockquote> I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering up. Especially in the labor camps. Communal sleeping barns etc. No sanitation facilities. From: Bill Prince Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM To: af@af.afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to indicate that deaths have been incorrectly attributed, bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote: <blockquote> the death count is the death count -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com </blockquote> -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com </blockquote> -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com </blockquote> </blockquote> </blockquote> -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com </blockquote> -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com </blockquote> </blockquote> -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
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