2. "Fast" -> less than 50 years.
For this timeframe, just dust off Moravec's old computer speed chart. On such a chart I think we're supposed to be at something like mouse level right now -- and in fact we have seen supercomputers beginning to take a shot at simulating mouse-brain-like structures. It does not feel so wrong to think that the robot cars succeeding in the DARPA challenges are maybe up to mouse-level capabilities. ... AI has been a spectacular success. It's very impressive that the early researchers were able to get computers with nematode-level "nervous systems" to show any interesting cognitive behavior at all. At worst, AI is keeping up with the available machine capabilities admirably.
My impression is that the cognitive performance of mice is vastly superior to that of current robot cars. I don't see how they could be considered even remotely comparable. But perhaps I have misjudged. Has anyone attempted to itemize an inventory of mouse mental abilities, and compared that to current robot abilities?
Research Associate, Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email
To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to:
http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=63834458-b785dd
