On 11/11/07, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> Ben said "-- the possibility of dramatic, rapid, shocking success in
> robotics is LOWER than in cognition"
>
> That's why I tell people the value of manual labor will not be impacted as
> soon by the AGI revolution as the value of mind labor.

Both valid points -- emphasizing "possibility" leading to dramatic,
shocking success -- but this does not invalidate the (in my opinion)
greater near-term *probability* of accelerating development and
practical deployment of robotics and its broad impact on society.

Robotics (like all physical technologies) will hit a ceiling defined
by intelligence.

Machine intelligence surpassing human capabilities in general will be
far more dramatic, rapid, and shocking than any previous technology.

But we do not yet have a complete, verifiable theory, let alone a
practical design.

- Jef

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