Robin,
To add onto Edward Porter's excellent summary, I would note the
considerable power that virtual worlds technology has to accelerate
advancement towards AGI, as I argued in a recent article on
KurzweilAI.net (and another recent article to appear in AI Journal
shortly)
AI Meets the Metaverse: Teachable AI Agents Living in Virtual Worlds
http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=memelist.html?m=3%23710
I also gave a video talk at Transvision 2006 (actually, I was sitting in my
son's
bedroom talking to a camera) w. the title "Ten Years to the Singularity-- If
We
Really, Really Try" ... see
http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/?p=202
If the current level of effort is continued it sure ain't gonna happen in 10
years, but I
still maintain that this order of magnitude is likely possible with adequate
devotion of effort,
as Ed Porter has also argued.
-- Ben G
On Nov 10, 2007 1:57 PM, Bob Mottram <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> On 10/11/2007, Jef Allbright <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > At the DARPA Urban Challenge last weekend, the optimism and flush of
> > rapid growth was palpable, but as I was driving home I approached a
> > truck off the side of the road, its driver pulling hard on a bar,
> > tightening the straps securing the load. Without conscious thought I
> > moved over in my lane to allow for the possibility that he might slip.
> > That chain of inference, and its requisite knowledge base, leading to
> > a "simple" human behavior, are not even on the radar horizon of
> > current AI technology.
>
>
> I was saying to someone recently that it's hard to watch something
> like the recent Urban Challenge and argue convincingly that AI is not
> making progress or that it's been a failure. Admittedly the
> intelligence here is not smart enough to carry out the sort of
> reasoning you describe, such as "I see a large object and predict that
> it may be about to fall so I better move out of the way". However,
> the path to this sort of ability just involves more accurate 3D
> modelling of the environment together with intelligent segmentation
> and some naive physics applied. It's the perception accuracy/modeling
> which is key to being able to implement these skills, which a mouse
> may or may not be capable of (I don't know enough about the cognitive
> skills of mice to be able to say).
>
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