On 11/10/07, Robin Hanson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > My impression is that the cognitive performance of mice is vastly superior > to that of current robot cars. I don't see how they could be considered > even remotely comparable. But perhaps I have misjudged. Has anyone > attempted to itemize an inventory of mouse mental abilities, and compared > that to current robot abilities?
It might be worthwhile to point out robotic technology is currently on a rapidly advancing segment of the curve, exploiting low-hanging fruit recently reachable by a convergence of capabilities becoming affordable including significant processing power, memory, batteries, wireless comm, motors and actuators, etc. In my opinion, the availability of the hardware is defining the near-term potential, with competition accelerating the rush to fill that void. Development beyond that level, however, proceeds at a much slower evolutionary rate. Much as natural language processing made substantial gains and then leveled off distinctly below the level of human understanding, robotics development is accelerating toward that level at which the rate of progress will sharply plateau. At the DARPA Urban Challenge last weekend, the optimism and flush of rapid growth was palpable, but as I was driving home I approached a truck off the side of the road, its driver pulling hard on a bar, tightening the straps securing the load. Without conscious thought I moved over in my lane to allow for the possibility that he might slip. That chain of inference, and its requisite knowledge base, leading to a "simple" human behavior, are not even on the radar horizon of current AI technology. - Jef ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=63856239-c9c2f5
