The Gliding International magazine breaks it down further X-country pilots 1820 Comp pilots 500 (probably a sub set of x-country pilots) Instructors 600 (also probably a sub-set of x-country pilots - but not guaranteed)
The remainder will be trainees, early solo, or solo and those with no intention of x-country. So on the face of it, it appears to be a reasonable estimate for 2600 full time GFA members and not including AEF. -----Original Message----- From: Aus-soaring [mailto:aus-soaring-boun...@lists.base64.com.au] On Behalf Of Teal Sent: Friday, 4 March 2016 2:24 PM To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia. <aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au> Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] Potential dangers in the sport of gliding If the active pilots estimate is based on GFA memberships, does it include AEFs? GFA membership figures I've seen certainly used to include them. I think for the purposes of this fatalities-per-km-flown calculation we're trying to figure out, AEFs should be omitted since they're not exactly typical of the glider pilot population. Teal On 4/03/2016 2:16 PM, Anthony Smith wrote: > > From the Feb-Mar 2016 issue of Gliding Australia: > > From 1 Oct 15 to 30 Nov 15: There were 34 reported accidents and > incidents. > > Of these: > > In flight                2 > > Launch                 5 > > Ground Ops      1 > > Landing               23 > > Outlanding         3 > > I havenât found the total reported hours for the same / similar > period yet. I will not hazard a guess about the average hours per year > per pilot. > > Latest Gliding International magazine estimated that we have~2600 > active pilots. Mandy reported 2560 active pilots in January this year. > > *From:*Aus-soaring [mailto:aus-soaring-boun...@lists.base64.com.au] > *On Behalf Of *Mike Borgelt > *Sent:* Friday, 4 March 2016 12:48 PM > *To:* Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia. > <aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au> > *Subject:* Re: [Aus-soaring] Potential dangers in the sport of gliding > > Making it anywhere from 50 to 80 km/hr isn't going to change things by > all that much. > > Call it a good physics order of magnitude estimate. It is better than > that actually. > > Mike > > At 11:51 AM 3/4/2016, you wrote: > > > > On 4/03/2016 12:07 PM, Mike Borgelt wrote: > > I doubt you'll find glider crash rates per km. Hours, yes. > > What is the average speed of a motorcycle on the roads. I'll > say 60km/h based on driving a car with a car computer a few times. > > > Off the top of my head, I couldn't say for sure. I don't have time > to go trawling through the literature right now, but I'd guess it > might be a bit higher than for cars, given the proportion of > motorcycle use that is recreational (as opposed to commuting in > traffic). > > > > That gives you around one crash per 1600 hours or so for > motorcycles. I guess this is crashes not fatals? If so sounds > about right for gliders too. > > > Yep, that's crashes, not fatals. Finding papers that have exposure > data *and* fatality data for motorcycles would take a bit more > time (I didn't see any during my quickish search earlier); and the > nature of the beast is that just copypasting the exposure data > into someone else's fatality rate calculation is prone to give you > wildly inaccurate results, due to differences in sample > characteristics, methodology, etc, etc. (These things are never > easy.) > > > Teal > > > > Mike > > At 10:58 AM 3/4/2016, you wrote: > > > > On 4/03/2016 10:44 AM, DMcD wrote: > > And I don't think you could compare gliding with > motorcycle riding (racing maybe). In terms of deaths > per hundred thousand rider or comp pilot hours, you'd > find a difference of several orders of magnitude. We > have whatââ¬Å 2500 pilots active in Australia? And > how many die each year? 1-2? > > > FWIW, I can help a bit with that question. Good road > traffic exposure data can be a bit hard to come by, but a > bit of searching found a paper* reporting motorcycle crash > rates for NSW from (I think) 2004, and they said: "The > mean crash rate (based on self-reported crash involvement) > was 0.96 crashes/100,000 km". > > Now, if anyone has crash data and exposure figures for > glider pilots (measured in km travelled) then we can see > how glider fatalities compare with motorcycle fatalities, > should we so desire. > > > Teal > > > *Source: Harrison, W. A., & Christie, R. (2005). Exposure > survey of motorcyclists in New South Wales. /Accident > Analysis & Prevention/, /37/(3), 441-451. > > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au > <mailto:Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au> > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring > <http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring > <http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring>> > > > *Borgelt Instruments***- /design & manufacture of quality > soaring instrumentation since 1978 > /www.borgeltinstruments.com <http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/> > <http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/ > <http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>>tel: 07 4635 > 5784overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784 > mob: 042835 5784: int+61-42835 5784 > P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia > > > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au > <mailto:Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au> > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring > > > > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au > <mailto:Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au> > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring > > *Borgelt Instruments*- /design & manufacture of quality soaring > instrumentation since 1978 /www.borgeltinstruments.com > <http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: > int+61-7-4635 5784 > mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784 > P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia > > > > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring _______________________________________________ Aus-soaring mailing list Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring _______________________________________________ Aus-soaring mailing list Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring