Making it anywhere from 50 to 80 km/hr isn't
going to change things by all that much.
Call it a good physics order of magnitude
estimate. It is better than that actually.
Mike
At 11:51 AM 3/4/2016, you wrote:
On 4/03/2016 12:07 PM, Mike Borgelt wrote:
I doubt you'll find glider crash rates per km. Hours, yes.
What is the average speed of a motorcycle on
the roads. I'll say 60km/h based on driving a
car with a car computer a few times.
Off the top of my head, I couldn't say for sure.
I don't have time to go trawling through the
literature right now, but I'd guess it might be
a bit higher than for cars, given the proportion
of motorcycle use that is recreational (as opposed to commuting in traffic).
That gives you around one crash per 1600 hours
or so for motorcycles. I guess this is crashes
not fatals? If so sounds about right for gliders too.
Yep, that's crashes, not fatals. Finding papers
that have exposure data *and* fatality data for
motorcycles would take a bit more time (I didn't
see any during my quickish search earlier); and
the nature of the beast is that just copypasting
the exposure data into someone else's fatality
rate calculation is prone to give you wildly
inaccurate results, due to differences in sample
characteristics, methodology, etc, etc. (These things are never easy.)
Teal
Mike
At 10:58 AM 3/4/2016, you wrote:
On 4/03/2016 10:44 AM, DMcD wrote:
And I don't think you could compare gliding
with motorcycle riding (racing maybe). In
terms of deaths per hundred thousand rider or
comp pilot hours, you'd find a difference of
several orders of magnitude. We have whatâ
2500 pilots active in Australia? And how many die each year? 1-2?
FWIW, I can help a bit with that question.
Good road traffic exposure data can be a bit
hard to come by, but a bit of searching found
a paper* reporting motorcycle crash rates for
NSW from (I think) 2004, and they said: "The
mean crash rate (based on self-reported crash
involvement) was 0.96 crashes/100,000 km".
Now, if anyone has crash data and exposure
figures for glider pilots (measured in km
travelled) then we can see how glider
fatalities compare with motorcycle fatalities, should we so desire.
Teal
*Source: Harrison, W. A., & Christie, R.
(2005). Exposure survey of motorcyclists in
New South Wales. /Accident Analysis & Prevention/, /37/(3), 441-451.
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