On Friday 2004-01-09 05:34, Alberto Monteiro wrote: > Trent Shipley wrote: > >>> If there are 2M inhabited planets then there are 14M fallow planets. > >>> At any given time there must be a total of 16M habitable planets. > >> > >> Ok, 700ky, or 1My, don't change the final numbers very much > >
> > -Total O-2 habitable planets now > > --- leased:fallow > > --- natural:terraformed > > --- proportion of A, B, C and homeworld leases. > > --- Mean number of planets per citizen race > > --- fairness in distributing leases. > > I also think we came to some figures here. 2M *leased* planets, about 10 per citizen race. No comments on the ratio of terraformed to natural or what kinds of leases. > > > With regard to planets I visit: > > http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html > > Some of the factors in Drake's equation are still _extremely_ innacurate. > > > N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL > > > > N: communicating life. > > N*: number of stars, site suggests 100 * 10^9 for Milky Way alone > > fp: fraction of stars with planets > > Seems close to 1 :-) > > > ne: number of planets where life can exist > > Seems close to 1/10^11 :-) > > > fl: fraction where life evolves > > fi: fraction were intelligent life evolves > > fc: fraction that can and do communicate > > fL: fraction of timewhere communicating civilization exists > > > > Galactics will colonize any planet where life evolves. fi, fc, and fL > > are irrelevant for calculating planets under GIM control. > > In fact, these numbers _do_ apply to Uplift. fl is 1, because the > Progenitors fed the planets with life. fi is 2/[total number of species > that ever existed] if you accept Earthclan's supersticions, or > 1/[total] if you are an Awaiter. Otherwise, this question is anathema. > > > (Alternatively fi=1, all planets with life get infested with intelligent > > life. fc=1, all inhabited planets participate in Galcatic Civilization. > > 0.12 > fL >.1 since inhabitable planets spend most of their > > existence in fallow.) > > Ok. > > > Ngim = N* fp ne fl > > N* = 100*10^9 per SETI > > fp = 0.2 (conservative per SETI) > > ne = 1 (conservative per SETI) > > SETIst are optmistic fanatics :-) > > > fl = 0.0001 (pretty conservative, but then the GIM is only interested > > in planets with *complex* life.) > > fl can be any number :-) > > > That gives us 2M *naturally* existing planets in the Milky Way controled > > by the GIM and 10M naturally occuring planets under GIM control through > > five galaxies. If 4/5 of all GIM controlled planets are terrformed then > > we wind up with 50M GIM planets in five galaxies. > > Ok. But it's better to go back and set the Drake factors based on what > we want to get in the end. Excellent idea! N* = 100*10^9 (that is, 1.00E+11) fp = .75 (most systems have planets) ne = .25 (few could support life, partly a cheat factor) fl = 3.00E-05 (3/100,000 have life, entirely a cheat factor. Implies there are a lot of terraforming candidates....) fi = 1 (ALL good planets get colonized) fc = 1 (If colonized, the setlers participate in O-2 Civ.) fL = .125 (7 times out of 8 a planet is fallow) This gives the number of planets that could *naturally* support life in the Milky Way N = 7.03E+04 5 galaxies Total natural planets under GIM control = 2.81E+06 Total natural GIM leased planets = 5N = 3.52E+05 Natural/Terraformed = 1/6 Total GIM planets (B or C leasable) = 1.69E+07 (We don't count A class leases because they are in need of terraforming.) Total GIM B or C leases at present time = 2.11E+06 Giving us about 11.1 planets per race, which is close enough to 10. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
