On 4/9/2014 5:50 PM, LizR wrote:
On 9 April 2014 13:14, chris peck <chris_peck...@hotmail.com
<mailto:chris_peck...@hotmail.com>> wrote:
/*>> If in some general discussion of climate change someone says (as a
convenient
shorthand) that "97% of climate scientists agree that AGW is a fact", what
is the
logical fallacy they are committing? I'd like to know so I can avoid it in
future
myself.*/
if you are just pointing out that a consensus exists and nothing more then
it isn't
a fallacy. This consensus exists.
If on the other hand you are pointing out that the consensus exists for
some other
end, ie as a means of convincing people of the truth of any statement other
than
'97% of scientist think climate change is occurring', then it is a fallacy.
Things
are not true because people believe them right?
If scientists are more likely to believe something that is true in their field than to
believe the contrary (which is false), then it is a simple application of Bayesian
inference to show that scientists believing X is evidence for X. It doesn't mean that
their belief *causes* X any more that OJ's bloody glove causes him to murder Nichol. But
to hold that "97% of climate scientists believe burning fossil fuel is causing global
warming." is *not* evidence for the truth of that statement requires that you also believe
scientists are more likely to believe what is false than its contrary.
Brent
As I've already said, the fact that a scientific consensus exists has various
implications. It indicates the that the views in question are the results of the
scientific method - that they are theories based on research and subjected to
experimental testing and peer-review.
This is why I mentioned postmodernism earlier. Advocates of pomo think that because all
scientific belief is falsifiable and subject to revision, it "isn't any better than" the
beliefs of, for example, religion. However they still call in a plumber rather than an
exorcist to fix a leaky tap, and travel by jet rather than using astral projection - and
turn red and wave their hands a lot when asked to explain exactly why they do so, if
science isn't any better than any other belief system.
So it's disingenuous to simply say that "things are not true because people believe
them" as though it applies equally in all contexts. A belief within the scientific
enterprise - a falsifiable, subject to revision, tested by experiment and peer-reviewed
belief - is quite different from, for example, a religious belief.
Hence, the fact that 97% of climate scientists agree on a particular hypothesis
indicates that that hypothesis is the best explanation that thousands of people have
been able to come up with to explain the observed facts, and that this hypothesis has
been tested by experiment and peer review, and hasn't as yet been falsified. Hence one
should, if one believes that the scientific method is a (reasonably) reliable tool,
accord it a (reasonable) degree of likelihood, as one would any other theory with that
level of support - for example the existence of the Higgs particle, or the link of
smoking with lung cancer.
So it appears I wasn't committing a logical fallacy after all. (Phew!)
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