On Thursday, April 10, 2014 2:24:04 AM UTC+1, Brent wrote: > > On 4/9/2014 5:50 PM, LizR wrote: > > On 9 April 2014 13:14, chris peck <chris_...@hotmail.com <javascript:>>wrote: > >> *>> If in some general discussion of climate change someone says (as a >> convenient shorthand) that "97% of climate scientists agree that AGW is a >> fact", what is the logical fallacy they are committing? I'd like to know so >> I can avoid it in future myself.* >> >> if you are just pointing out that a consensus exists and nothing more >> then it isn't a fallacy. This consensus exists. >> >> If on the other hand you are pointing out that the consensus exists for >> some other end, ie as a means of convincing people of the truth of any >> statement other than '97% of scientist think climate change is occurring', >> then it is a fallacy. Things are not true because people believe them right? >> > > If scientists are more likely to believe something that is true in their > field than to believe the contrary (which is false), then it is a simple > application of Bayesian inference to show that scientists believing X is > evidence for X. It doesn't mean that their belief *causes* X any more that > OJ's bloody glove causes him to murder Nichol. But to hold that "97% of > climate scientists believe burning fossil fuel is causing global warming." > is *not* evidence for the truth of that statement requires that you also > believe scientists are more likely to believe what is false than its > contrary. > > Bren > I agree and see no good in the denial camp. But it doesn't look like good science, or even good ethics, publishing one-sided, cherry picked character assassination about conspiracy theories. Firstly, there's no reason to think the people actually responsible for the strategy harbour conspiracy theories. The directors of tobacco companies and their strategic PR shills had all long since quit smoking. A large component of the political spectrum do feel alienated from science and that does leave them - and so as find with climate Science - vulnerable in a way it once was not. And there is a reason for that, that the institutions of science show no willingness to reflect on at all. For up to 50 or 60 years, academic institutions, usually in the form of academics with too much say over who gets posts, have blatently followed corruption recruitment practiced, packing people in that reflect ONE part of the political and economic, social and ideological spectrum. Broadly, conservatives have been pushed and kept out. Chickens come home to roost. Look in the mirror time.
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