On Tue, Aug 2, 2016 at 12:55 PM, Bruno Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote:
>
> both copies will have a cup of coffee after the reconstitution. Are you
> OK that P("experience of drinking coffee") = 1?
Yes, and in this case it doesn't matter if Bruno Marchal says P is the
probability John Clark will drink the coffee or says P is
the probability
"you" will drink the coffee, there is no ambiguity either way. However if
the Moscow man got the coffee but the Washington man did not then there
would be a 100% probability that John Clark will get the coffee and also a
100% probability that John Clark will not get the coffee, just as I would
assign a 100% probability that tomorrow tomatoes will be red and I would
also assign a 100% probability t
hat tomorrow tomatoes will be
green.
If
Bruno Marchal says
the definition of
P is the probability
"*YOU*"
will drink the coffee
then P would not be 100% or 50% or even 0%, as John Clark has said, some
ideas are so bad they're not even wrong. P
would have no value whatsoever because in a world with "*YOU*" duplicating
machines the very definition of P
would be
gibberish.
>
> Do you think the guy in Helsinki was wrong when he said, in Helsinki, to
> expect to drink some coffee soon?
As far as personal identity is concerned it doesn't matter what the
Helsinki man does or does not expect. Our expectations often turn out to be
wrong but we nevertheless retain our feeling of personal identity, or at
least John Clark does.
John K Clark
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