On Thu, Aug 4, 2016 at 12:15 PM, Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote:
>
> >
>> The question is not about duplication.
>
>
> OK.
>
>
> And that part is still OK. Assigning probabilities about what "YOU" will
see next is not ambiguous as long as "YOU" duplicating machine are not
around.
>
> So, you are OK that the guy in Helsinki write P("drinking coffee") = 1.
>
The
guy in Helsinki
?
NO!!! Bruno Marchal said "The question is not about duplication" but the
guy in Helsinki is just about to walk into a *YOU*
duplicating machine
,
so John Clark
will not
assign any probability of any sort about
the
one and only one thing
that
will happen to "
*YOU*
"
.
It's just
plain
dumb.
>
> Now, the guy in Helsinki is told that we have put a painting by Van Gogh
> in one of the reconstitution box, and a painting by Monet in the other
> reconstitution box.
>
>
>
Let's see if John Clark can guess what's coming. After "*YOU*" have been
duplicated by a *YOU* duplicating machine what is the probability that "
*YOU*" will blah blah blah. What on earth made Bruno Marchal think that
substituting a painting for a cup of coffee would make things less
ambiguous?
>
> The key point here, is that we don't tell you which reconstitution box
> contains which painting.
> [...]
>
Why is that the key point? Suppose we
change the experiment and this time before the experiment we tell "Y*OU*"
which box contains which painting, we tell "*YOU*" that the red box on the
left contains the Van Gogh
and the blue box on the right contains the Monet , and we tell "*YOU*" that
after "*YOU*" are duplicated by the *YOU* duplicating machine "*YOU*" will
be in both boxes. Does that information help in the slightest way in
determining what one and only one painting "*YOU*" will see after "*YOU*"
are
duplicated?
It's just plain
dumb.
>
> P("being uncertain about which city is behind the door")
P is equal to who's uncertainty? After the experiment is
over how do we determine what the true value of P turned out to be? To
find out that value we need to ask "*YOU*" what "*YOU*" saw after "*YOU*"
walked into the *YOU *duplicating machine and opened one and only one door.
But who exactly do we ask? We can't ask the Helsinki man as he's no longer
around,.... oh I know, we ask "*YOU*".
>
> OK?
>
No it's not OK, it's about as far from OK as things get.
>
> Can we move to step 4?
>
Just as soon as Bruno Marchal explains what one and only one thing "*YOU*"
refers to in a world with "*YOU*" duplicating machines.
John K Clark
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