On Thu, Aug 4, 2016 at 12:15 PM, Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote: > > > >> The question is not about duplication. > > > OK. > > > And that part is still OK. Assigning probabilities about what "YOU" will see next is not ambiguous as long as "YOU" duplicating machine are not around.
> > So, you are OK that the guy in Helsinki write P("drinking coffee") = 1. > The guy in Helsinki ? NO!!! Bruno Marchal said "The question is not about duplication" but the guy in Helsinki is just about to walk into a *YOU* duplicating machine , so John Clark will not assign any probability of any sort about the one and only one thing that will happen to " *YOU* " . It's just plain dumb. > > Now, the guy in Helsinki is told that we have put a painting by Van Gogh > in one of the reconstitution box, and a painting by Monet in the other > reconstitution box. > > > Let's see if John Clark can guess what's coming. After "*YOU*" have been duplicated by a *YOU* duplicating machine what is the probability that " *YOU*" will blah blah blah. What on earth made Bruno Marchal think that substituting a painting for a cup of coffee would make things less ambiguous? > > The key point here, is that we don't tell you which reconstitution box > contains which painting. > [...] > Why is that the key point? Suppose we change the experiment and this time before the experiment we tell "Y*OU*" which box contains which painting, we tell "*YOU*" that the red box on the left contains the Van Gogh and the blue box on the right contains the Monet , and we tell "*YOU*" that after "*YOU*" are duplicated by the *YOU* duplicating machine "*YOU*" will be in both boxes. Does that information help in the slightest way in determining what one and only one painting "*YOU*" will see after "*YOU*" are duplicated? It's just plain dumb. > > P("being uncertain about which city is behind the door") P is equal to who's uncertainty? After the experiment is over how do we determine what the true value of P turned out to be? To find out that value we need to ask "*YOU*" what "*YOU*" saw after "*YOU*" walked into the *YOU *duplicating machine and opened one and only one door. But who exactly do we ask? We can't ask the Helsinki man as he's no longer around,.... oh I know, we ask "*YOU*". > > OK? > No it's not OK, it's about as far from OK as things get. > > Can we move to step 4? > Just as soon as Bruno Marchal explains what one and only one thing "*YOU*" refers to in a world with "*YOU*" duplicating machines. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.