On Mon, Sep 7, 2020 at 9:29 AM Bruno Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote:
>> In that thought experiment there is no objective probability because >> John Clark is always in a prime numbered room or John Clark is not. So >> there is only subjective probability. There is a 100% chance John Clark >> will walk out, look at the number on the door and see a prime number, and a >> 100% chance he will not see a prime number. > > > *> You make the same error than Bruce (curiously enough). Because all the > alternative are realised, you take as 1 the probability that you feel them.* > And you make the exact same error over and over and over and over again! If I made a mistake in the above it certainly wasn't that one because I said absolutely nothing about what Mr.You would or would not do or say or think, and could not even if I wanted to because due to the circumstances of the thought experiment the personal pronoun "you" has no referent, so any "question" using that word has no answer because it is not a question, i t's just some words and a question mark. >> However if you were to ask one of the individual John Clarks in one of >> those rooms AFTER the duplication "What is the probability you will see a >> prime number on the door when you walk out?" then that would be a >> legitimate unambiguous question, and the answer would be 25% because there >> are 25 prime numbers less than 100. > > > *> In this case, there were no explicit duplication,* > Exactly, and therefore the personal pronoun "you" would not be ambiguous.so a question that started as "*what would you*" would not automatically be an ambiguous question. *> Let me ask you this: do you agree that if I can predict with certainty > that I will be* [...] > I don't need to read another word. No I do not agree, and I don't disagree either because gibberish is not the sort of thing one can agree or disagree with, it's just gibberish. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv2wc2BC%2BuSK14C%2BbFGOJqpSTobjmfwiLxEo%3D66vedJDSg%40mail.gmail.com.
